Will Exit Polls Win On Election Night?

(CBS)  It may seem unlikely, but on Tuesday the offices above an East Coast antique store will be the epicenter of American politics.

Joe Lenski will know the election's results before almost anybody, reports CBS News correspondent Russ Mitchell. His company, Edison Media Research, gathers the exit poll information used by a consortium of TV networks and the Associated Press to help quickly determine who won and why.

"We will be at 1000 polling locations and we will interview more than 100,000 people," Lenski tells Mitchell.

The process begins with surveys conducted outside polling places.

Three times a day that info is called into headquarters and eventually funneled to organizations like CBS News, where it's dissected by CBS News Director of Surveys Kathleen Frankovic.

"For example, what was the biggest issue on the voters' minds?" says Frankovic. "Were there any major demographic differences in how people voted?"

But in recent years exit polling has been at the center of controversy.

In 2000 bad polling data added to the confusion over who carried Florida. Two years later the same outfit —Voter News Service — had a crippling computer glitch.

Lenski's group took over for 2004 but young pollsters tended to interview young voters, skewing the results. By mid-day, preliminary exit poll data leaked out to the blogosphere, giving the false impression that Senator John Kerry would be President.

"And that is how exit polling got the reputation for having been very wrong when they were a little wrong," says Mark Blumenthal, editor of Pollster.com.

Mark Blumenthal blogs on his website.

"There is a vacuum on elections day in which people are desperate to find out what happened," adds Blumenthal.

Now they'll have to wait even longer. This year exit poll info will be withheld from the consortium until 5 p.m. Eastern time.

"We're going to be extraordinarily careful about what we say about an outcome," says Frankovic.

Lenski's team has also shortened the questionnaire, improved pollster training, and moved them closer to voting areas to improve accuracy.

But predicting election results is an inexact science.

"But we learn year after year and we look at our models and re-evaluate every years," Lenski points out.

It'll be up to the public and polling wonks to pick apart the data in the weeks and months to come.

"You don't do this unless you get excited by looking at data, looking at numbers and information," says CBS' Frankovic. "You learn something new every time."

Another thing that pollsters are learning is that it will not get easier to gather exit poll data. Nearly 20 percent of voters now cast their ballot by mail, and that number will continue to grow.

[marcelde]

MEANWHILE, ON THIS ELECTION DAY, BUSH'S WAR ON IRAQ OPENS FURTHER THE PROVERBIAL "PANDORA'S BOX" OF CIVIL WAR WHERE THERE IS NO WINNING, BUT ONLY LOSING.

Two mortar shells slammed into a coffee shop in a Shiite neighborhood in north Baghdad late Tuesday, killing at least 14 people and wounding 16 others, police said.

The attack appeared to have been in response to mortar fire on a Sunni neighborhood across the Tigris River earlier in the day that killed seven people and wounded 25.

[marcelde]

I had to steal this great huskerarmy posting:

"The latest polling shows men, women and minorities favoring the Dems by 65% to 35%. However, computers are favoring the GOP by a very wide margin, 99.9% with a margin of error .1%.
Posted by huskerarmy at 05:04 PM : Nov 06, 2006

[marcelde]

I had to steal this great huskerarmy posting:

"The latest polling shows men, women and minorities favoring the Dems by 65% to 35%. However, computers are favoring the GOP by a very wide margin, 99.9% with a margin of error .1%.
Posted by huskerarmy at 05:04 PM : Nov 06, 2006

[marcelde]

I had to steal this great huskerarmy posting:

"The latest polling shows men, women and minorities favoring the Dems by 65% to 35%. However, computers are favoring the GOP by a very wide margin, 99.9% with a margin of error .1%.
Posted by huskerarmy at 05:04 PM : Nov 06, 2006

[marcelde]

BRITISH BELIEVE BUSH IS MORE DANGEROUS THAN KIM JONG-IL ==

By Julian Glover
The Guardian UK

Friday 03 November 2006

US allies think Washington threat to world peace. CONSIDER THE RECENT SECURITY BREACH AT LOS ALAMOS! ==

Only bin Laden feared more in United Kingdom. BUT DON%u2019T WORRY AS HE PROBABLY DID NOT HAVE DIRECT ACCESS TO LOS ALAMOS.

The survey has been carried out by the Guardian in Britain and leading international polls.

It exposes high levels of distrust. In Britain, 69% of those
questioned say they believe US policy has made the world less safe
since 2001, with only 7% thinking action in Iraq and Afghanistan has
increased global security.

The finding is mirrored in America's immediate northern and southern
neighbours, Canada and Mexico, with 62% of Canadians and 57% of
Mexicans saying the world has become more dangerous because of US
policy.

Voters in three of the four countries surveyed also overwhelmingly
reject the decision to invade Iraq, with only Israeli voters in
favour, 59% to 34% against.

In Britain 71% of voters now say the invasion was unjustified, a view
shared by 89% of Mexicans and 73% of Canadians. Canada is a Nato
member whose troops are in action in Afghanistan. Neither do voters
think America has helped advance democracy in developing countries,
one of the justifications for deposing Saddam Hussein. Only 11% of
Britons and 28% of Israelis think that has happened.

[marcelde]

"D Day" IS NOW DEMOCRATIC DAY!

IT IS NO LONGER Tom "DE LAY" DAY.

IT IS A DAY TOO LONG DELAY ED.

[mh4cbs1]

Go ahead and vote for Demcorats. It won't matter.

Even if our Diebold machines don't give us all the victories we'd like (can't be too obvious about it), we will prevail in the end.

After all, we made Bush the 'War President'. First we scared the people so they say "take my freedom, just protect me!". And we are - we even sneaked in legislation so Bush can declare martial law. The media didn't even notice it!

We will make Democrats look like terrorist sympathizers (our media will be eager to do it, and be rewarded with mergers and tax breaks). Don't believe it? Look what we did to John Kerry, a purple heart combat veteran. Made him look like a coward compared to our heroic George Bush (who was a party boy in Alabama while sitting out the Vietnam War!).

So you stupid middleclass suckers -- we scare you then we rob you blind. We even get you to fight our wars for us! We almost got away with destroying your precious Social Security - maybe next time.

I make millions each year and I pay a lower rate than almost all of you. Its hilarious! And if you even squeak about it, we call it "class warfare" and the media shuts you up. Maybe we'll let you raise the minimum wage from $5/hr to $6/hr -- it won't make a difference, but its more fun to see how low we can keep it.

Oh well, have fun in your little election, we don't care, we'll just bribe those spineless Democrats if they win a few elections...

[mh4cbs1]

The American People are finally waking up to understand that the BUSH agenda of:
FEAR
HATE
LIES
9-11 EXPLOTATION
WAR
PLUNDER
is one massive DISASTER.

STOP the BUSH fascism now while we still can! You think I overstate the situation we are in? Read on...

In case you didn't notice (of course CBS gave it ZERO converage), Bush signed HR5122, Public Law 109-364 into effect in October. This law basically revises the Insurrection Act and the Posse Comitatus Act of 1878, allowing Bush (the "War President") to declare martial law. He may need this if the NeoCons are planing to steal this election with their DieBold machines!

Section 1076 entitled, "Use of the Armed Forces in Major Public Emergencies." Section 333, "Major public emergencies; interference with State and Federal law" states that "the President may employ the armed forces, including the National Guard in Federal service, to restore public order and enforce the laws of the United States when, as a result of [blah, blah, blah] or other condition in any State, the President determines that domestic violence has occurred to such an extent that the constituted authorities of the State or possession are incapable of ("refuse" or "fail" in) maintaining public order, "in order to suppress, in any State, any insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination, or conspiracy."

Cutting the fluff: Bush can use the military right here at home for ANY incident where HE determines it is needed to maintain public order.

[toddmcmechen]

Do you trust the shadowy companies that make the voting machines?

The root of my mistrust starts in 1980 with a voting machine company called Datamark, which was funded by Christian Evangelical Howard Ahmanson, who also funded Republican projects such as the the Heritage foundation, Discovery Institute (an anti-Darwinism foundation), as well as and funding investigations into Clinton%u2019s indiscretions and Vince Foster%u2019s suicide. Datamark was run by the Uurosevich brothers.

Datamark became AIS, the same AIS that afforded Senator/AIS shareholder Chuch Hagel his statisticly improbable 1996 win in Nebraska. Eventually AIS split into ES&S and Diebold elections divison, but One Urosevich brothwer runs ES&S and the other runs Diebold. It's all the same crazy right-wingers, but they are now counting 75% of the votes with an insecure proprietary application written by a convicted serial embezzler (23 counts -Jeff Dean)in Microsoft's Access program.

[huskerarmy]

The latest polling shows men, women and minorities favoring the Dems by 65% to 35%. However, computers are favoring the GOP by a very wide margin, 99.9% with a margin of error .1%.