Poll: Dems Carry Big Pre-Election Lead

CBS/NYT Survey Finds Democrats With 18-Point Edge Over GOP As Election Nears

(CBS)  Democrats hold a sizeable lead over Republicans with a week to go until the critical midterm congressional elections, according to a CBS News/New York Times poll.

If the election for the House of Representatives were held today, 52 percent of likely voters would support the Democratic candidate in their district, versus just 34 percent who would vote for the Republican — an 18-point advantage for the Democrats, four points more than a month ago.

Iraq remains by far the most important issue for voters, with 27 percent naming it their top concern, followed by the economy and jobs (13 percent), illegal immigration (8 percent) and terrorism (7 percent).

2006 CONGRESSIONAL VOTE
(Among Likely Voters)

Now:
Democrats
52%
Republicans
34%

10/2006:
Democrats
50%
Republicans
36%

Opinions on Iraq are strongly associated with which way voters are leaning, particularly among those opposed to the war.

Nearly three-fourths of those who think the U.S. should have stayed out of Iraq say they're voting Democratic, while most of those who support the Iraq war (61 percent) are voting Republican.

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Read the complete CBS News poll results.

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Which party will control Congress is an important concern for many voters with more (34 percent) saying their vote will be to put Democrats in charge than say it will be to keep Republicans in the majority (20 percent).

CONGRESSIONAL VOTE WILL BE TO:
(Among Likely Voters)

Put Democrats in control
34%
Keep Republicans in control
20%
Something else
42%

President Bush's sagging popularity is also a factor in the campaign, with 40 percent of voters saying theirs will be a vote against the president — nearly three times as many as say theirs will be a vote for Mr. Bush.

Among Democrats, fully seven in 10 say they will be voting against the president.

That's a big change from past midterm elections, when presidential influence was either neutral (Presidents Clinton and George H. W. Bush), or positive (President Reagan).

While the president is on the road campaigning for Republicans in the campaign's final days, the poll finds that Mr. Bush's support may actually hurt GOP candidates.

CONGRESSIONAL VOTE WILL BE:
(Among Likely Voters)

For Bush
14%
Against Bush
40%
Not About Bush
41%

One third of voters say they would be less likely to vote for a candidate the president supported, versus 11 percent who'd be more likely to vote for that candidate. A majority of voters, however, said Mr. Bush's support for a local candidate would not influence their vote.

Mr. Bush's overall job approval rating remains at 34 percent in the poll, the same as it was last month, while 58 percent disapprove of the job he's doing.

Ratings for Congress are also low, with 29 percent approving of the job Congress is doing and 56 percent disapproving.

Those numbers for Congress are much worse than before the midterm elections two years ago, but not quite as bad as before the 1994 midterms, when Republicans took control of Congress from the Democrats. Then, just 20 percent approved of the job Congress was doing.

As is typical, Americans rate their own representatives much higher: 58 percent approve of the job their own member of Congress is doing, while 26 percent disapprove.

CONGRESS JOB APPROVAL

Overall:
Approve
29%
Disapprove
56%

Own Representative:
Approve
58%
Disapprove
26%

Democrats continue to be more enthusiastic than Republicans about the upcoming elections, but enthusiasm on both sides of the aisle has risen since early October. Fifty-three percent of Democrats and 42 percent of Republicans say they feel more enthusiastic about voting in this election than usual.

One explanation for Democrats' enthusiasm could be that most voters (61 percent) expect Democrats to win more seats this election. Even 38 percent of Republicans think Democrats will prevail.

Democrats' chances are getting a big boost from women and independents in this election.

Fifty percent of independents said they favor Democratic candidates, while 23 percent favor Republicans.

Among women, Democrats have a 21-point edge over Republicans; among men, the Democratic lead is 15 points.

In a troubling sign for Republicans, the poll finds some attrition from the GOP ranks since the 2004 presidential election: 17 percent who voted for President Bush two years ago say they will vote Democratic this year.

On Iraq, the poll found optimism about the war's ultimate outcome continuing to sink. Just over half of Americans said the U.S. is very likely or somewhat likely to succeed; 45 percent, the highest number ever, think the U.S. is not at all likely to succeed.

Fewer Americans than ever before, 20 percent, think the U.S. is winning the war, and two-thirds say the war's going badly.

Voters are strongly critical of President Bush's handling of Iraq. Six in 10 want the U.S. to change its strategy and tactics in Iraq, while just 8 percent want to stick with the current strategy.

About half of Americans want to see U.S. troop reductions in Iraq immediately, including one-quarter who want all U.S. troops removed. Voters overwhelmingly believe Democrats would bring troops home sooner than Republicans would.

Regardless of which party wins control of Congress, most voters think the new Congress will make Iraq its top priority.

Thirteen percent of voters believe Republicans would make fighting terrorism their top priority, compared with just 3 percent who think it would top the Democrats’ priorities. But most voters think the threat of terrorism will remain the same no matter which party controls the Congress.

Nine percent of voters believe Democrats would focus on the economy, as opposed to 7 percent for Republicans. More voters also think that taxes will increase under a Democratic Congress than a Republican one.

For detailed information on how CBS News conducts public opinion surveys, click here.

This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1084 adults nationwide, interviewed by telephone October 27-31, 2006. The sample included 932 registered voters. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points and three points for results based on registered voters. Each registered voter is assigned a probability of voting, which is used to calculate the likely voter results. The sum of these probabilities is the effective number of likely voters. The effective number of likely voters is 598. The error due to sampling for likely voters could be plus or minus four points.

[egresor]

well said john97068:

"You think CBS is "liberal" only if you buy FOX propoganda hook-line-and-sinker.

CBS is typical corporate conservative junk-news, fluff-news. They cheerleaded Bush as he LIED his way into Invading Iraq - a nation that was NOT a threat (and they knew it!). Read some books by ex-administration, CIA people if you don't believe me."

Tho I mostly prefer CBS of network news.... you are absolutely correct john97068. CBS is corporate junk fluff news and they (like the others) capitulated to the administration. not wanting to appear unpatriotic and lose viewers.

I thought it quite ironic that ABC News and Peter Jennings (sadly deceased) chose the publisher of the Watergate breaking Washington Post as one of their persons of the week. Someone who had the courage to stand against extreme pressure (and threats) to find the truth and expose it to the American public. Something totally lacking today!

[observantx]

To fellow commenters of all persuasions:

When you see the ALL CAPS repeated rantings from snflwr4real don't comment or answer them. This is obviously someone skilled enough to type but not coherent enough to type in anything that has any discernable content.

Don't encourage this behavior from anyone in the comment zone.

[stevex47]

One-American,
wow you bought into their fear propoganda. good job thinking for yourself.

[stevex47]

Fartknocker,
So it's stay the course for you too? Good plan buddy,

[shingles1]

One_American, I can't believe YOU believe that ridiculous WorldNetDaily propaganda piece.

It's like an Onion piece.

[ihave4rugratshelp]

Oh my, how was anyone ever able to vote before polls were invented?

[ihave4rugratshelp]

This is a fun news day--1084 people are going to determine the election based on their poll answers, and not all of them are even eligble to vote, and for today's highlight, if you fly Bush the bird, you get canned--I guess this redefines keeping your hands to yourself.

[mh4cbs1]

john97068:

You think CBS is "liberal" only if you buy FOX propoganda hook-line-and-sinker.

CBS is typical corporate conservative junk-news, fluff-news. They cheerleaded Bush as he LIED his way into Invading Iraq - a nation that was NOT a threat (and they knew it!). Read some books by ex-administration, CIA people if you don't believe me.

Or maybe you like being played for a CHUMP by the Bush Gang?

If you love American and Support the Troops, and if you know what the Bush gang is really up to, then you would want them impeached and thrown in Jail where they belong.

[mh4cbs1]

icibas:

Great you are aware and concerned enough to cross Party Lines. But be assured, you are not voting against the GOP as you know it...

The GOP has been HIJACKED by a bunch of NeoCon thugs!!

The Bush Gang is NOT Conservative and NOT Compassionate. Their values are money and power. They exploit 9-11 for FEAR and HATE. Then they LIE and launch their WARs. Read their objectives in their own words in the PNAC papers of 1998. They used 9-11 as their "Pearl Harbor" to leverage and manipulate their way into Iraq Invasion.

Watch what they DO not what they SAY in their "patriotic" speeches.

The American People are FINALLY waking up to realize whats been going on -- and they do not like being played for CHUMPS. My extended family is traditional Republican (for decades!) and ALL are voting Democratic Party (most for the first time) to STOP this BUSH DISASTER.

You are doing the right thing!

[icibas]

i know i never vote Democrate, this year i will because the Gop lies to the nation.Mr. Bush is to arrogant never took responsibility for mistakes he created.I'm not for Kerry he did not say anything to hurt the troupes.He told the truth.Can you see our military glue in Irak.It will take us(Mlitary)20-30 years to get out in Irak.Put it in record.

[one_american]

By Aaron Klein
2006 WorldNetDaily.com

JERUSALEM - Everybody has an opinion about next Tuesday's midterm congressional election in the U.S. - including senior terrorist leaders interviewed by WND who say they hope Americans sweep the Democrats into power because of the party's position on withdrawing from Iraq, a move, as they see it, that ensures victory for the worldwide Islamic resistance.

The terrorists told WorldNetDaily an electoral win for the Democrats would prove to them Americans are "tired."

They rejected statements from some prominent Democrats in the U.S. that a withdrawal from Iraq would end the insurgency, explaining an evacuation would prove resistance works and would compel jihadists to continue fighting until America is destroyed.

They said a withdrawal would also embolden their own terror groups to enhance "resistance" against Israel.

"Of course Americans should vote Democrat," Jihad Jaara, a senior member of the Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades terror group and the infamous leader of the 2002 siege of Bethlehem's Church of the Nativity, told WND.

"This is why American Muslims will support the Democrats, because there is an atmosphere in America that encourages those who want to withdraw from Iraq. It is time that the American people support those who want to take them out of this Iraqi mud," said Jaara, speaking to WND from exile in Ireland, where he was sent as part of an internationally brokered deal that ended the church siege.

[notblue]

Why does the left believe if we hadn't gone into Iraq everything would be rosey and the terrorists wouldn't have rallied against us? It seems pretty naive to think that wherever the U.S. would choose to fight the war on terrorism that the enemy wouldn't rally to that country and use that conflict as a recruitment tool for the terrorists. Please all Dems out there, enlighten us as to where the U.S. should fight the Islamic extremists since they exist in every country in the middle east as well as other countries in the world?

[sim828524s]

The Decomcrats are going to WIN.

This is a great year for celebration.

Now we can get some things done around here once and for all.

Bye the way, this is comming from an independent registered voter.

Come Tuesday the world will be a better place :-)

I'm put together a party, and everyone is invited.

[tejasdemo]

Republicans are crooks and liars who are all sharing the same brain and not capable of independent thought. Is that who you want controlling the keys ?

Didnt think so

[pfcholliday-2009]

again you point out things I didn't say but okay.
Yes I'm through, okay. I think bush had the right intent, he might be a little over his welcome wagon but it will help Iraq, and just because hes gone doesn't mean we'll be leaving anytime soon, my assignment date is still the same and wont change

[frankly6]

pfcholliday

Were terrorists in Iraq before we were? Was Sadam plotting with Al-Queda? Answer: NO

Is the overwhelming majority of the insurgency Iraqi? Answer: YES less than 5% are foreign terrrists

Do the majority of Iraqis want us to leave? Answer: YES over 70% want us to leave and 60% think it's ok to kill American troops to achieve this goal.

Do they have the right to want us out of their country? Answer: YES it's their country.


A question for you to answer. If Iraq had invaded the US and defeated our military would you and most able-bodied Americans fight to remove them? I would.

We are there because the Iraqis live on top of a lot of oil and Halliburton is making a killing.

There is very little rebuilding going on because there isn't even a basic level of security to operate in Iraq. We have found ourselves playing referee in a civil war we made possible.

I'm truly sorry you find yourself going into this mess.

[pfcholliday-2009]

I'm pretty sure alot of the older, wiser Military people support president bush, right now mostly the only people talking are young, and don't understand much of what THEY say. So yea. John Kerry says "STUDY HARD OR YOU'LL END UP IN IRAQ"
support that. I guess I didn't study hard enough, I'm going to Iraq. I'm proud. Because, yes we make mistakes in Iraq, just like me make mistakes here, yes but its not just about WMD, its about Terrorism, which making a 20 Ounce coke Can turn into a bomb that can leave a hold bigger then a few basketball goals, I consider that terrorism, especailly when you're killing you're own people. You have to understand it, but we aren't killing innocent people in Iraq, not purposely, we cant. If an officer finds to think we kill Innocent Iraqis, We goto jail, so we, protecting our lives can goto jail for years, and its not an alternative. Defending your country is an honor and soldiers in Iraq agree to it, soldiers getting ready to goto Iraq agree to it. Mission: REBUILDING IRAQ. Thats the mission, we can't do our mission while getting shot at or stepping on coke cans that blow your leg off. Should it keep us from staying? no. To come so far in a mission. You aren't in the army, because you don't know our creed. its about the mission.

[arthurcl1]

Emperor Bush at it again slinging mud on Kerry using Rush Limbaugh for a bad joke. Kerry has Purple Hearts, how many does Bush, Cheyne or Rumsfield have? How did Bush serve in the mililtary? He didn't do much because he was from a rich family and they helped get him out of going to Vietnam. But look at what Bush has done for us, what he won't talk about like spending billions on a failed policy in Irag. Going over the UN to go it alone! Recently millions of dollars of our taxpayer money for weapons for their armed forces was ripped off from under our noses? No reconstruction going on for the people, civil war, and the Cleric is back to controlling Sadar City? They told us to get out! Our National Debt is at 4 TRILLION! Left for our grandchildren to try to pay? What a mess Bush has us in. It's another Vietnam. We will never be able to get out of there thanks to these guys!
That was what Kerry was trying to say!

[frankly6]

snflwr4real

Off your medicine again? The nice men in white coats are going to take you somewhere where you'll be safe now just come along.

[egresor]

first of all snflwr4real----it is considered rude to use all caps on the internet and is the equivalent of shouting.

one thing is evident from your post----you certainly have issues to resolve and regardless of what you may truly think----the solutions to which will not be found in others, but in yourself.