Poll: Middle Class May Bring Dems Victory

Survey Indicates Massive Move By Middle Class Away From GOP; Iraq War, Economy Cited As Top Causes

(AP)  A massive apparent move by the middle class away from the Republicans has 56 percent of likely voters saying they plan to vote to send a Democrat to the House on Nov. 7 compared with 37 percent who said they would vote for President George W. Bush's Republicans, the latest Associated Press-AOL News poll shows.

If the tally bears this out a week from next Tuesday, Republican control of the House of Representatives could become a victim of the Iraq war. Voters rated the war and the economy as their top issues in the poll released Thursday.

Middle-class voters deserted the Democrats a dozen years ago, but the promise of their return is giving the party its best chance to reclaim the House of Representatives since the Republicans swept Democrats from power in 1994. The AP-AOL survey found voters leaning considerably more toward Democrats in the final weeks of the campaign.

Democrats need to gain 15 seats in the House and six in the Senate to control Congress. All 435 House seats and 33 in the 100-member Senate are up for election.

Early this month, Democrats had a 10 percentage-point advantage when voters were asked whether they would vote for the Democratic or Republican candidates in their congressional districts. The Democratic edge is now 19 percentage points.

The AP-AOL News telephone poll of 2,000 adults, 970 of whom are likely voters, was conducted by Ipsos Oct. 20-25.

Dismissing talk of a sour outlook for the Republicans, the House's leader, Speaker Dennis Hastert, cited signs of a strong economy and rejected on Thursday the Democratic argument that voters should fire him and his rank-and-file.

“Things are looking pretty good, and I don't think anybody would really want to change that at this time,” he said.

In the minority, Democrats are arguing for a change in leadership and trying to tap into intense public anxiety about the Iraq war as well as discontent with Bush and the Republicans in charge of the House and Senate.

The 2006 election has been likened to 1994, when backlash against the controlling Democrats triggered a change in power and ushered in an era of new rulers, the Republicans.

Twelve years later, the tables appear poised to turn, in part because, as an AP analysis shows, fickle middle-class voters are returning to the Democratic Party after abandoning it in 1994.

Back then, middle-class voters — those earning less than $75,000 (euro59,000) a year and those who have graduated from high school or have some college education — fled the Democrats in droves, helping Republicans capture dozens of Democratic-held House seats to seize control for the first time in decades.

Democrats recovered some of that lost ground in the following years, but they never fully regained their grasp on the middle class. In the intervening elections such as this one, when the president was not on the ticket, Democrats and Republicans have split the House vote among middle-income and middle-education groups.

This fall, however, the AP-AOL News poll shows that Democrats have an advantage, in some cases in the double digits, among middle-class voters.

“I feel like the Republicans have forgotten the middle class,” says Joseph Altland, 73, a retired teacher, who is a registered Republican but says he is considering becoming an independent. He bemoans rising insurance costs and utility bills. “The guys I golf with, we're in the middle class. We're getting hurt,” he said.

A majority of middle-class voters now favor Democrats to control the House and say that Democrats best represent their most closely held beliefs. They trust Democrats more than Republicans to handle the situation in Iraq, which most of them view as a mistake. The war is this voting group's most important issue. The economy and health care are close behind.

Like voters of all stripes, the middle class is angry with Bush and congressional Republican leaders.

Democrats say the shift is not a surprise.

“We're the ones who understand the middle-class squeeze,” said Congressman Rahm Emanuel, the head of the House Democrats' campaign effort. “Democrats are talking about middle-class tax cuts and Republicans are talking about staying the course.”

But Congressman Phil English challenged that statement, saying: “Middle-class voters are no more likely to gravitate to the Democrats in any sustained way than chickens would embrace Colonel Sanders. The Republicans, however imperfectly, have done the better job of embracing middle-class needs.”

[darkfyreaol]

My last comment was intended to show that we are indeed becoming slaves of the government. The American people are crying out in protest - 63% of America is crying foul with what is going on in the White House. And the President has decided that they are not worthy enough to breathe the same air as he.

[darkfyreaol]

Let's see... It's said there's no easy way to accomplish something on a national scale.. Here's 3 EASY steps for a better America.

1. Eliminate political bias in the White House. The President's job is to represent ALL Americans, not just the ultra-rich.

2. Reverse outsourcing of American jobs.

3. Reinstate the system of government that was intended for this nation: President Lincoln wrote the Emancipation Proclamation in 1863 - Whereas, on the twenty-second day of September, in the year of our Lord one thousand eight hundred and sixty-two, a proclamation was issued by the President of the United States, containing, among other things, the following, to wit: That on the first day of January, in the year of our Lord 1863, all persons held as slaves within any State or designated part of a State, the people whereof shall then be in rebellion against the United States, shall be then, thenceforward, and forever free; and the Executive Government of the United States, including the military and naval authority thereof, will recognize and maintain the freedom of such persons, and will do no act or acts to repress such persons, or any of them, in any efforts they may make for their actual freedom.

[christiansin]

Ah hah! Now we know why the current adminstration has been doing everything possible to destroy the middle class! They know that if they drive enough of the middle class to the poor house, then losing the votes of what is left of the middle class won't matter!

If they can't pursuade the middle class to vote for them so they can retain power, they'll simple destroy the middle class! Seems logical enough. I wonder if that is the brain child of Karl Rove???

[tejasdemo]

Fknocker....looks to me like the repubs are the ones looking to bring down the goverment. Record deficits, sending a generation of kids to fight in a useless war and die, cutting back taxes so much that pretty soon you are going to have rely on the kind heartedness of guys like Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, etc to fund highway improvements, schools, hospitals etc, and basically dismantling the Constitution, a document that has withstood the test of many wars, debates etc.

[sandy994]

When you lose your middle class, you hopefully lose the election. In no other time have I seen such a squeeze on people to keep their heads above water, keep their homes and worry about skyrocketing health care. We are desperate for new leadership and desperate for change. Only if the Democrats retake the House and the Senate can we expect a major shift in priorities. Do you want more of the same of the last six years?
I certainly don't.

[bluestardad]

Guys you can feel it in the air there is an awakening of the American Electorate and we are the sleeping giant our oppressors have feared all this time. We need to make sure that we take someone to the poles on Election Day. Americans will vote against this administration in so great of numbers that Carl Rove%u2019s election stealing programmers cannot up date the election theft code fast enough to stop the landslide victory.

[pendragon679]

The censored word in my last post is G-A-Y-S...

Sheesh, this political correctness has gone WAY too far...

[pendragon679]

What do we need in Washington?
--Elected leaders who genuinely lead and who are responsive to the people who elected them.
--Leaders with the the testicular fortitude to create legislation that reigns in the flow of tax dollars to the ultra-rich.
--Leaders who will create legislation that not only mandates a living wage, put places a cap on corporate executive compensation.
--Leaders with the stones to reign in multi-billion-dollar corporate profits. When Exxon-Mobile can rake in record profits for 4 quarters in a row, at a time when gas prices are declining, there's something seriously wrong.
--Leaders who will place the interests of the middle class first, and the interests of the ultra-wealthy last.
--Leaders who are interested in genuinely protecting the homeland, not engaging in needless war over oil. Protecting the homeland begins AT HOME, not in some godforsaken desert.
--Leaders who recognize that our real enemies are NOT ***, illegal aliens, "liberals," and the boogyman-of-the-month.
In short, we need CHANGE in Washington. And the only way we'll acheive that change is to get our heads out of our collective butts and VOTE.

[bellal-2009]

I don't think voting Democrat is going to be the silver bullet you think. The dow is up, home equity is up, interest rates have stayed low, it's not a picnic in the park but it's certainly not as bad as it could have been.

[j267796]

This is the first time, i have ever posted but after reading this article I could not help but comment. Under Clinton, I had a decent paying job with full benefits (retirement, medical, etc). Under Bush, I was unemployed because my job was outsourced overseas. I have found another job but get paid less, have no insurance for my family, and have used my 401K to keep from loosing my home. I am NOT better off than I was under the Democrats. I have been denied educational assistance due to recent cut in the grant program and am working two jobs to pay for school. How can Repub say the economy is better when most of my neighbors are in the same position? I will be voting Democrat!!!!!

[hockeymanvt]

Usually reading a set of comments here leads me to alternatively celebrate and grit my teeth. This set of comments seems to represent what I hope will be a new movement in America. Please help to make it happen. Just one comment about the future of the Democratic party and the middle class. I can understand your frustration in our being under-represented in the past but as a person who knows Howard Dean as a fellow father watching our kids play hockey together, this person can help guide the party in a good direction. He is NOTHING like person that the republicons try to represent.

[peterbaldwin-2009]

Most Americans don't realize it but if you travel around EU countries, you will surprisingly see a higher standard of living for its people, better infrastucture, and a much happier and content people.

Too many Americans have become slaves to corporate America with long hours and meager rewards. The current economic boom is not showing up in the paychecks of middle America. Paul Krugman in the Times has been pointing this out for years and the middle class is starting to listen. All those billions given to the rich, corporations and the oil companies, would reduce the middle class's tax burden to a small fraction of what it is today. The EU countries do it without the monstrous economic tax-producing engine that the US enjoys.

[mjv2944]

I just hope that the dems don't drop the ball if its handed off to them. They seem to get side tracked with issues that don't really matter to me, such as gay marriage and the like, I could care less, this economy and country is in big trouble. First order should be to limit exposure to the lobbyists, as they have sold America out for profits for big business. What really sc ares me, is I'm afraid they are just as corrupt as the neocons. They have to concentrate on getting back middle America, it won't be easy, but they need to try. Sad part being big business will probably win, as money talks and bull*hit walks.

[emhawks]

This is one ordinary, middle-class American who believes it's time for a change! I'm well aware that there is(& always has been & probably always will be) corruption in both the Democrat & Republican parties. But, the level of corruption we're seeing since the Bush adm. took office, is the worst in US history. They care nothing about the middle-class, or any class! Bush/Cheney & others in their adm. are only interested in power, money & war(because it generates more money).
Vote for major change Nov. 7th! And stay informed. Knowledge is power!

[bluestardad]

CALL TO AMERICAN VOTER
STAY FOCUSED AMERICA IT IS ABOUT TO GET TOUGH. WE HAVE A FEW MORE DAYS OF INTENSE ATTACK ADS, SMOKE SCREENS, DIVISION OF ELECTORATE, DECEPTION, MISREPRESENTATION, AND LIES, TO ENDURE BEFORE WE CAN UNCOVER THE ELECTION FRAUD, RECOUNT THE VOTE, AND THROW THESE CRIMINALS OUT OF OFFICE. THEN WE CAN START HEALING AMERICA.

[peterbaldwin-2009]

The Republicans have engaged in class warfare for years. Its about time for the middle class to realize that they are not part of the Republican club. If the Dems sweep, its time to soak the rich, oil companies and corporations and give the proceeds to working American families. The Dems have been weak in supporting labor. hopefully now they will get it.

[bozly54]

Have be somewhat astounded these last six years as the various Bush Brigade bumbles, bungles and blunders have played and rolled on and on yet a contingency of the "middle-class" aligned themselves with the Bush folks. Perhaps somehow beguiled by the "supposed" tax breaks which were NOT "real" for they cost more than most comprended as service and programs and etc's were CUT to the bone and the costs shifted to the shoulders of individuals at a HIGHER COST than when SHARED. The trauma of 911 still have too many willing to forego various "whatever" basics of even our CONSTITUTION for a FALSE sense that somehow such will offer us up some form of security when the opposite is far more true as it perils our basic , grounded principles of which this nation was founded upon and for.

[perception5]

Yeah.... and the exit polling from election night 2004 had Kerry winning the election...... FYI the head of our liberal Associated Press is an Al Gore pal and big donor.
Can anyone one say "bias" or "conflict of interest".
Let American's decide by voting on November 7th..... instead of these polls run by known liberal MSM outlets..........
They are pushing this propaganda in order to depress GOP turnout.......nice try

[lochlan-2009]

Yup, Former Republican rate here voting to clean house across the boards.

[rsoxfan1123]

Sounds like the aristocrats' days in office are numbered....the democrats should actually be grateful to bush for making such a mess of things.