A Long, Winding Road To '08

RealClearPolitics: Hillary For President? Not So Fast

(RealClearPolitics)  This column was written by John McIntyre.

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Election 2006 will be over in two weeks with the election results likely to provide the catalyst for many of the machinations we will see over the next 12 months in positioning for who will be the next president of the United States.

With the implosion of George Allen, the Republican side has settled around the "Big 3" of Sen. John McCain, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, Massachusetts' governor. Romney has been the chief benefactor from Allen's demise and with McCain and Giuliani on his left flank, Romney is well positioned to run as the conservative candidate.

This is not an insignificant asset given that conservatives dominate the Republican nominating process. The unknown of how much his religion will be a factor and his lack of national security leadership experience will keep him from getting too far ahead of the field were he to have a nice run the next 12 months.

However, it is McCain who has had the best several weeks of any candidate, in either party. The North Korean nuke provided McCain with an opportunity to burnish his national security pedigree and, more importantly from a nomination standpoint, an opportunity to be partisan.

McCain's overtly less-partisan style may win him points with the beltway media and Independents but it is a big-time negative with the conservative base he is going to need to win the GOP nomination. His recent attacks on the Clintons over North Korea warmed conservative attitudes toward McCain measurably.

But even better for McCain than Kim Jong-Il's nuke, the Foley scandal destroyed Republican momentum at a critical time in the campaign and completely threw the GOP back on its heels heading into the midterm homestretch. With the possibility of a Democratic takeover of Congress having risen considerably these last few weeks, McCain is well positioned to pick up the pieces from a dispirited and angry Republican party if they indeed lose two weeks from today.

At the end of the day, McCain's biggest appeal to Republicans in the fight for the nomination will be his claim (credibly) that he can win in 2008. And a Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid could be all McCain needs to convince enough nervous conservatives to get behind him to ensure blowing the Democrats out of the water in 2008.

Which brings us to the Clintons and where the Democratic race for the nomination stands. The Clintons are the 800-pound gorilla in the Democratic field, and as long as Hillary Clinton is running for president it is difficult to see how anybody else ends up with the nomination. But while that assertion holds true, there is no question that Hillary's grip on the nomination has slipped these last 12 months, and she is not as much the lock she was a year ago.

What is really fascinating when gaming out the Clintons' strategy to win back the White House is how they deal with the very real possibility of a McCain nomination. And, really, the only way Hillary Clinton can "deal" with a McCain nomination and still preserve her White House options is NOT to run in 2008.

This brings us to Barack Obama and "Meet the Press."

MR. HARWOOD: ... I talked to a former top aide to Bill Clinton last night who said Barack Obama will run in 2008, Hillary Clinton will not. So we'll see what happens there.

MR. RUSSERT: Hillary Clinton will not?

MR. HARWOOD: That was his prediction.

Obama is clearly the hottest thing to hit the Democratic Party and the Washington media in a long time, which means he is a clear threat to the Clintons' dominance of the party. If Hillary passes up her '08 opportunity because of a calculated decision, she is a loser to John McCain in a general election. She does not want to have to face a red-hot and primed Obama in the 2012 primaries. Better to let Obama get his shot in 2008 and have him go down against McCain.

To play with this scenario further, a President McCain might really be one of the best ways for Hillary Clinton to win the presidency. The seeds for Bill Clinton's successful White House run were laid with the open warfare between conservatives and the first President Bush, epitomized by Pat Buchanan's sizable 35 percent in the 1992 New Hampshire GOP primary. Given McCain's temperament and history there is a very good chance conservatives would be thoroughly disgusted with a President McCain heading into 2012, laying the table perfectly for Hillary Clinton to win the White House after 12 years of Republican rule.

This may all be a little Machiavellian for some, but the chess pieces are moving on the 2008 presidential board. With the odds of McCain winning the GOP nomination greatly improved by a Republican rout in '06, the possibility that Hillary Clinton may indeed take a pass on 2008 has to be more seriously considered.


John McIntyre is the President and co-founder of RealClearPolitics.

[bluestardad]

CALL TO AMERICAN VOTER
STAY FOCUSED AMERICA IT IS ABOUT TO GET TOUGH. WE HAVE A FEW MORE DAYS OF INTENSE ATTACK ADS, SMOKE SCREENS, DIVISION OF ELECTORATE, DECEPTION, MISREPRESENTATION, AND LIES, TO ENDURE BEFORE WE CAN UNCOVER THE ELECTION FRAUD, RECOUNT THE VOTE, AND THROW THESE CRIMINALS OUT OF OFFICE. THEN WE CAN START HEALING AMERICA.

[bluestardad]

STEP BACK FROM FEAR!
We in America need to pull back from this Frenzy of Fear that has spellbound us since September 11, 2001. I am not saying to let down our guard or not be prudent with our Law enforcement, Intelligence agencies or Military as their constant job is to protect the American people and they do it well. Rationally speaking it is more likely that a person will be killed in a car accident on the way to get milk than killed by a Terrorist in America. Hispanics coming across our border for work are not the terrorist or the enemy. Unfair trade practices initiated by our government are the cause of our jobs leaving and the demise of the Middle Class in America not some Terrorist plot. Political Parties have been using fear in an attempt to maintain power in this country. Americans do the math you are more likely to do yourself bodily harm than to be harmed by a Terrorist. America is a Land of Opportunity and hopes where people live in Freedom. America is not a land were people will be governed by Fear.

Michael C. Boetjer
Captain U. S. Army
Double Blue Star Father

[osidebear]

"goosestepping babies"??

That's a new one. *** those infants and their military proclivities!

[huskerarmy]

Jane,

I think you misread your daily talking points memo. That's supposed to be "blame Bill Clinton" for everything not Jimmy Carter. Maybe you should go back to Fox and take another drink of the koolaid and see if your indoctrination straightens up a bit.

[jeffk1623]

koolstuf...

Great post. I can not agree more that America needs input from both sides, not like today were one side runs bully over all.

I pray when I awake Nov 8th America has spoken and taken the total control of this government out of the hands of those bent on ramming their ideals and beliefs into laws that all American%u2019s have to live with, whether they agree or not. That we vote the House and hopefully the Senate to a more liberal way, so true MODERATES can come forward without fear of reprisals and help move this country in a safer and more prosperous direction.

[KOOLSTUF]

So many Commentors here take themselves all too
seriously -- and even viciously attack those who
disagree, to the extreme. It's so reminiscent of religion-based terrorism, be that in Ireland
or the Mideast, and back thru our world's history.

Too many folks who choose to favor one party or another, and become deeply involved, "progress"
to the extreme, worthy of being identified as
"Far Right" or "Far Left". Most who are that
fervent wrongly see ANYONE who disagrees as part
of the opposite extreme -- even the more moderate.

Such extremists simply refuse to move and adjust,
to compromise reasonably. Far too many in Congress
deserve that description -- and we've all suffered
because of this reality: Congress has been mired
in "GRIDLOCK".

So many of its Majority now realize having erred
by blindly following Bush's lead. He's now said
to be "Resolute" (especially about Iraq, and also in backing Rumsfeld) -- put in plain language:
he's merely guilty of being STUBBORN.

During these next days, and in 2008, we need to
elect MODERATES-- of BOTH parties -- politicians
with the intelligence and integrity to unite in
resolving our worst national problems -- and with
the courage to overide an Administration with its head buried in the sand.

Bush is now shuffling the Deck Chairs -- that's
only because he now knows he's lost control over
Congress, regardless of who gets the majority.

[bluestardad]

we love you Jane glad you are here

[jeffk1623]

JaneyMcGreev----Let%u2019s get some facts straight...I know that is a strange thing to do for a right wing conservative%u2026.

1st - I am a registered Republican that campaigned for Reagan during both his elections. That was when the Republican Party was respectable. I even voted for W in 2000. Thank God I realized my error before the 2004 elections. Today's Republican Party is nothing more than a pack of lying criminals.

2nd - I am not debating you on the history of the Middle East and how it ties to the 9/11 disaster, while I am not agreeing with your analysis I will say it makes for a great research topic.

3rd - The 9/11 disaster has nothing to do with the current war in Iraq. As my first item states the lies of the current Republican Administration are the reason for the war in Iraq---WMD, Al-Qaeda ties, terrorist training camps, all fabricated intelligence to confuse and pursued America into a war that did not need to happen. Remember the war in Afghanistan is the one that was stated due to 9/11, and BTW should be the primary one we are fighting.

As a true right wing extremist you are following the example of your pathetic leadership and making wild accusations and attempting to tie loose facts to create an environment of dread and fear. Sorry Janey but we are all waking up and realizing the truth. That truth being the Republican Party can not longer be trust.

[janeymcgreev]

JeffK,

Grow up.

And this is sage advice for the other goosestepping babies shrieking Bush and GOP hate.

IF the United States of America had a resolute President in power 27 years ago instead of the peanut-farming, blue-eyed bigot turned pious hypocrite and coward. If we had a President who even in the wake of Vietnam and Watergate stood firm for America's interests, we might not have had to face to threats and terror of Islamic Nazism.

When Carter in his hate of the Shah (funny, but he certainly DIDN'T hate the House of Saud or his good friend Arafat) choose to betray Iran, and do virtually nothing about the hostage taking, save for a half-assed commando raid that failed (like his friend Clinton's one-time missile strike), he set the seeds for the growth of Islamofascism. The PLO, Hizbullah and finally Al Qaeda took cheer from Iran's defiance of Carter, and it would take a real nincompoop to not see this, nor see the fact that the current regime in Tehran is an extension of the Ayatollahs.

If Carter had the balls to turn Tehran into a radioactive paved parking lot on Nov. 5, 1979, we probably would never have had a 9/11. Of course you'd have to find another Republican to hate as much as you do Bush. But wait, you DID HATE Ronald Reagan, didn't you?

And speaking of Carter, isn't it nice how this *** cozies up to Kim Il Jong, to Arafat, to Assad and other America-haters. Makes you glad you voted for this gutless racist, hey Dems?

[jeffk1623]

JaneyMcGreev---Over the past month I have heard and read some of the most ridiculous statements as to why we are in Iraq from the right wing....but yours takes the cake. I am totally dumbfounded that an American can be so blinded by liberal hatred to actually believe the current Iraq war was directly caused by failures over 20 to 30 years ago. The current situation is an utter and complete failure of your beloved right wing conservatives, and the MAJORITY of the country now realizes that and will vote them from power Nov 7th.

[janeymcgreev]

bluestardad,

enough of your neo-Nazi rubbish, ok?

If you're not a Dem MoveOn.Org kool-aid drinker, you sure sound like one. Or is it the pathetic Patrick Buchanan your cup of tea.

The Dem Neo-Fascists love the term "Neo-Con" because it is an excuse for them to avoid the words Jew-baiter or Anti-Semite. Are you one, bluestardaddy? After all, they like to name Perle, Wolfowitz, Feith, Lieberman, et. al., convienently forgetting Scoop Jackson or Pat Moynihan.

Or Jeane Kirkpatrick - a far better diplomat than that pig with no conscience or no faith that Perv Bill picked.

Fact is, your despised Neo-Cons helped to elect one of the greatest Presidents in American History, Ronald Wilson Reagan. If Reagan had won in '76 we might have been spared the betrayal of Iran by the Peanut Coward and Bigot Carter, the President representing Hamas. In fact, in preventing the fall of the Shah we might have avoided 9/11 and or your son's service - if he is serving...

Because of Carter and the pre-Howie Dean-John Kerry traitors and crypto-Nazis, we have American boys and girls in harm's way. Because of Clinton's interest in bimbos rather than in destroying Bin Laden, we have American boys and girls in harm's way.

Thank your Democrats and the Neo-Fascists whom by their betrayals of Vietnam and Iran have gotten us in a bad mess. Vote for them, and you most assuredly will get more of the same.

[random_radar]

If Hillary Clinton decides not to run in 2008 for any reason, she will need to handle it deftly or she will lose momentum and be seen as faint-hearted. 2008 is her year, take it or leave it. You can't predict who the opponent will ultimately be before running because the process is long and unpredictable. You grab for the brass ring when you get the chance.

On the other hand, Obama would be pushing his luck to try in 2008. He has no track record, and that would be mercilessly criticized by all sides. He might be a good shot in 2012 if he continues playing his cards right and making more friends.

After all is said and done, McCain will ultimately crash and burn because of the meanness image. He has his ups and downs, but people don't elect presidents unless they think they are "nice guys." McCain doesn't fit the image of presidential timber.

Mitt Romney, on the other hand, projects the exact image people like in a president. Talk a bout a smooth statesman--any conservative who can govern Massachusetts successfully has got to have some talent. Can being president be any harder than governing the Bay State?

[diverinnl]

bluestardad: If you haven't done enough research to figure out where to cast your vote in the mid-terms by now, you need to get on the ball.

[bluestardad]

If the president, his vice president or the neo-con spin misters had to serve in combat they would never have considered putting us in Iraq in the first place. If their children (sons and daughters) were registered for the draft, or serving in the military, they would not be so fast to send them to a mismanaged and bungled military enterprise under a bunch of military yes men. They dishonor America an those of us who have served, lost family and friends, and who%u2019s sons and daughters now serve. These People running this war I would not trust to make me coffee. Cut and Run is honorable compared to Send and Not Serve, Stay and be Stupid, Chide and be a Chicken Hawk, or Preach values and be a Pedophile. We American People are about to Suspend all these Criminals on November 8. This insanity is almost over. Soon we will start the road to recovery once we vote these criminals out of office. They will leave office the only question is how, by their own vehicle, or Tarred and Feathered and Riding a Rail!

[bluestardad]

who gives a *** about 08 now keep focused on the mid term election and do not be distracted.

[diverinnl]

I'm speaking as a just right of center republican here but McCain/Giuliani GOP nomination in '08 would be a strong ticket. A good run would be to see Powell/Obama vs McCain/Giuliani. Even I would have a hard time deciding where to cast my vote there.

[perception5]

So far reading the comment combinations below........ I don't see any winners........ keep trying.....hint..... more to the center more

[gtorlando]

I wouldn't mind

Gore-Clinton
Gore-Edwards
Edwards-Clinton

one of those would work

[edjohn66]

OBAMA/FEINGOLD 2008!!!