Good Economic News Doesn't Help GOP

Lynch: Gas Is Down, Market Up; Why Aren't GOP Pollsters Smiling?

(CBS)  Dotty Lynch is CBSNews.com's Political Points columnist. E-mail your questions and comments to Political Points.

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Gas prices are down, the stock market is at a record high and 60 percent of Americans say the economy is in good shape. So why are Republicans in so much trouble?

I've been asked this in the past week by several (mostly rich) Democrats and Republicans, so I picked the brains of a number of pollsters. Kathy Frankovic, director of surveys for CBS News, pointed to the finding in the CBS News/New York Times poll conducted Oct. 5 to 8, which said that despite the increase in the number of people saying the economy was in good shape, they were not optimistic about the future. Only 19 percent said the economy was getting better, and by a 51 percent to 36 percent margin people picked the Democrats over the Republicans as the party which would ensure a good economy.

Democratic pollster Geoff Garin says "the only economic statistics that matter right now are flat incomes and still more than a majority of voters feel they are falling behind economically. New jobs aren't as good as the jobs we lost and any gains aren't trickling down to the middle class. And voters feel that the economic outlook is glum for the next generation."

In fact, the recent CBS/Times poll found that 46 percent said they were making just enough to get by and another 17 percent said that they weren't making enough to pay their bills. Only a third of Americans said they had more than enough to get by.

Nonpartisan congressional election analyst Charlie Cook reads the polls the same way and says that Iraq and a feeling that the Republicans have been in power too long are dominating the economy as an issue this year, and that many Americans feel they are working harder and harder but not getting ahead.

But what about gas prices? Republican pollster David Winston has long thought they were a big source of Republican woes and if they came down Republicans would have an easier time of it. Cook feels gas prices seem to have "hurt Republicans when they were going up and helped when they were going down," but that the phenomenon was "distinct from a broader economic concern that the Republicans were favoring the other economy that has been doing so well." Democratic pollster Diane Feldman took it a step further. Her research has found that many voters "think the Republicans manipulate gas prices." Both she and Cook say the market is irrelevant to most voters.

In an important book published this fall, "Applebee’s America," the authors, Republican pollster Matthew Dowd, Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik and former AP political writer Ron Fournier, throw cold water on the "Economy Drives the Vote" theory. In a chapter entitled "Values Trump the Economy," they argue that people vote with their hearts not their heads and are hungry for a "gut value connection" with political leaders. Voters are searching for community and authenticity, and leaders who are able to persuade them that they care about voters and convince them that "we are all in this together" will be successful. On a panel in Washington last week, Fournier said that Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm was pulling ahead in the polls despite the terrible economy in her state because she made that connection on values.

"Applebee’s America" is a fascinating book and uses a huge amount of sophisticated polling and marketing techniques to demonstrate the thesis that values and culture beat issues and policies. However, several pollsters have argued that this is a false distinction. Geoff Garin contends that "issues have to be expressed in a language of values – but values without issues lose the transaction people look for in candidates, i.e., how are you going to make my life better."

The Bush administration and Republican candidates are still hoping that the good economic indicators, falling gas prices and issues like taxes and government spending will get through to voters in the final days of the campaign. But time is running out, and so far the voters' heads and hearts have been focusing on other issues and different solutions.

[annabanana-1]

Some Americans actually look beyond their pocketbooks when considering who they choose to represent them. This Party "in charge" of the Congress has allowed the executive to render them superfluous by destroying the Constitution they were all sworn to uphold.

The bean counters still examine their entrails.

[cofmanaaron]

If any Republican candidates are attacking on the issue of ohhhhhh, Democrats will raise your taxes, bring the death tax back to life. It's bull. The only group of people that Republicans care about keeping their taxes low are the obscenely rich. No wonder the Repulican campaign comitee has wads of cash on hand. Vote Democrat for tax equality, and social servies that work, like say, cops on the street. Hmm, absent for 5 years

[mjv2944]

Globalization happened when big business got in the drivers seat with our sorry as*ed politicians and sold us down the drain for profits. Any more I am leaning towards isolation, if its used here it should be built here. You know we give tax incentives for our companies to business in foreign lands. I say to hell with them, they tried to raise their standard of living and failed, so they are trying to lower ours, and I'm afraid they are doing a good job of it.

[effallah]

I found this article on Dotso.com and I'm glad I did. The poll acurately states what needs to be said. End of story.

[itchybrain]

watch gas prices go up and the economy take another poop after the elections

[bluestardad]

Remember the Republicans will stress the need for %u201CValues Voters%u201D to enlist hate against *** when they are supporting and Protecting Pedophiles in their midst and making fun of Christian People. If you like this type of behavior in your elected officials Stay the Course and Vote Republican.

[mh4cbs1]

The media equates a good economy with a good stock market.

Sure, its good if you own lots of stock. As you make millions watching your stock go up your taxes are also at a lower rate than most middle income wage earners (gee wonder why...)

For the rest of us, the good jobs are going overseas. Remember Perot's Prediction? The giant sucking sound of jobs leaving the USA? Well, its all come true thanks to the two-party Repubicrats that both serve their corporate owners.

[bellal-2009]

And why on earth would you assume I support globalization? That's one reason why I have continue to discourage voters from voting straight party lines. And your friends are probably richer than mine. So there.

[bellal-2009]

SharnCedar, You do a terrible southern accent. FYI, I fought against NAFTA and was very disappointed in Clinton's support of it. I was considered an isolationist. Friends argue that we have shared the wealth and helped countries out of the grips of poverty, not such a bad thing. Do I wish we could turn back the hands of time, of course. I too wish we had a strong manufacturing sector with strong union representation but I think those days are gone forever.

[the74blaster]

boday67-

Apparently you don't have an answer for my question!

Its obvious the best you can do is use the old GOP tactic of diverting attention from failed policies by changing the topic into personal attacks. The only difference here is that this "the village idiot" is way ahead of your little game of diversion.

And I thought only liberals resorted to name calling when do don't have any facts! Apparently it goes both ways.

[boday67]

"It's analogous to the practice of awarding Nobel Prizes in Economics, even though the work being recognized is completely theoretical without any tangible economic benefit." Posted by brianp55

Did you graduate from high school? Shooting your mouth off like this w/o thinking just exposes how stupid you are.

[the74blaster]

The reason the GOP is in trouble is that the far right is as out of touch with real Americans just as the lefties are. They have proven that giving Republicans control over the government is just as dangerous as having the Democrats in control.

Tax and Spend? Borrow and spend? Whats the difference?

The good economic news is rightfully being swept under the rug by the gross incomptence of our leadership.

Why is it that the GOP keeps sweeping their glowing record of accomplishments over the last 6 years and chooses to bring up pre historic scandals that have no meaning in this election? I have asked this question before and it has gone unanswered by every one of my conservative friends and acquaintances.

Is it because the GOP has nothing positive to show for the last 6 years and cannot afford to talk about the failures associated with the foreign policy, the sky rocketing federal debt, the Iraq war based on false pretenses and the federal response to the natural disaster caused by hurricane Katrina?

As an independent I have to ask those questions because frankly I do not believe the lack of performance by the GOP majority deserves another chance.

[sharncedar]

"The whole world is changing because of globalization."

Hah HAH hah hah HAH hah Hah.

Ho ho HO Ho ho.

Yes, the world is changing from globalization.

And where is globalization coming from?

"Globalization" isn't an accident. It can't happen without someone doing it. It isn't like a natural event or something, though you innocent wonderful little person seems to be claiming it is.

Someone does globalization to someone else. IT took enormous manipulation of our laws, for example to allow the N class of visas to be misused to facilitate that little ol' offshoring. It took enormous expenditures and public policy to allow foreign countries to freely use the Internet without paying for it, etc. etc. etc.

I guess you little southern belle of a corporate elitist is now gonna preeten' globalization happened all by its little ol' self, like an acceeedent o' sumpin.

Wasn't you and yor buddies, wazit.

We got lots o' little acceedents waitin' to happen to you and yor rich buddies, bellaL. Jes little acceedents, oops, we dint do it on purpose any more than yoo all did globalization on purpose, did ya.

[bellal-2009]

osidebear, the gap between rich and poor is indeed windening but nothing compared to what the gap would have been had we slipped further into recession after 9/11. Bush handled the economy brilliantly.

[bellal-2009]

bmlott, very good point. The whole world is changing because of globalization. I would add to your position by suggesting that innovation is intrinsically part of the American heritage and that we should promote creativity and independent thinking which I think has been neglected in education lately.

[osidebear]

Perhaps it is becoming clearer and clearer to the American people that the current administration is made up of and only beholden to the super-wealthy. People are beginning to understand that under Republican rule the gap between rich and poor is widening at a fantastic rate. The perception that our government is for sale to the highest bidder trumps any notion that the economy is improving for the average citizen.

I don't know if the Democrats can do any better than the Republicans, since they feed at the corporate trough as well. However, one must be willfully blind or prospering under the current system to support it. That's fewer and fewer of us.

[themooniac]

Maybe the econonmy is roaring along, I'm sure it is if you own stock in Exxon or Halliburton or any of the other fat cat corporations the Republicans have been feeding for six years... but what about the rest of us?? The day of reckoning is coming - 22 days.

[sandy994]

AN ILLEGAL WAS THAT HAS NO END, THOUSANDS KILLED OR MAIMED.Katrina debacle. Millions with no health care. No increase in the minimum wage. No increase in stem cell research. An administration that does not recognize the threat of global warming. Corruption, corruption and more corruption.A country drifting and on the wrong track, Medicare perscription bill for the drug companies. Oil companies write legislation. We have lost all confidence of the world community.House cover up of the Foley page scandal.Etc. Etc. Etc. Any more questions?
posted by sandy994

[brianp55]

The reason that the Republicans are in BIG trouble is because the economic indicators which they are relying upon to paint a favorable picture of the economy are essentially "metaphysical" in nature and have virtually no direct impact upon the earning power of the middle class. It's analogous to the practice of awarding Nobel Prizes in Economics, even though the work being recognized is completely theoretical without any tangible economic benefit.

[heresmy2cent]

"Good economic news?" Dotty, are you living somewhere other than America?

The American automobile industry which built a large part of our economy for many years is now in dire straits. The real estate market which has fueled the economy for the last 5 years or so is in a downward spiral. The jobs lost in these industries (and the satellite industries that support them) are jobs that paid good wages and will most likely be gone forever.

Are you basing your findings on the information the federal government provides--the same goverment that does not count you as unemployed after your unemployment benefits expire?

Our economy is going to hell in a handbasket.

Only a small sector of our American workforce is really getting ahead.