Gas Drops At Election Time: Coincidence?

Conspiracy Theories Abound Given Uncanny Link Between Bush’s Popularity And Pump Prices

(CBS)  For two months now, gas prices have been in freefall, plunging 81 cents a gallon since August and giving the president some rare good news.

Gas prices started going down, CBS News correspondent Anthony Mason reports, just as the fall campaign began to heat up. Coincidence? Some drivers don’t think so.

"And I think its basically a ploy to sort of get the American people to think: 'Well, the economy is going good, let's vote Republican,’” says one man pumping his gas.

Call the conspiracy theory crazy, but it’s spreading through Internet blogs and over the airwaves. And a recent Gallup/USA Today poll found that 42 percent of people actually believe the Bush administration has “deliberately manipulated” the price of gas to effect the election.

"You don't think gas prices matter? Just ask Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter & Ronald Reagan,” say University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato. “They'll all tell you that their victories or defeats depended in part on the cost of gas at the pump."

In fact, there is an uncanny connection between President Bush’s popularity and the price at the pump. As gas prices rise, the president’s approval rating tends to sink.

"You see what appears to be an almost perfect correlation that the president's approval is really driven by gas prices,” says Andy LaPerriere, an analyst with ISI Group.

But La Perriere says there’s no conspiracy.

"It's preposterous," he says.

Supply and demand determine gas prices, he says, and apart from controlling the relatively small strategic petroleum reserve, “there’s virtually nothing the president can do to impact oil prices and gas prices.”

In any case, it's Iraq that’s now weighing down President Bush’s poll numbers. Lower gas prices have made Americans feel better about the economy, but they’re not making them feel better about the president.

[webdepot]

I doubt if the administration, by and of itself, could do anything to force lower gas prices....
The oil companies (you know, those recipients of hundreds of billions in tax breaks from this administration) on the other hand, would be more than happy to operate at a slight loss for a short time in order to assure the Neocons stay in power and hopefully, bestow billions more in tax breaks to the industry. Watch for the quarterly profit reports on the industry.... bet my pay check they are down a chunk...
Cynical??? perhaps.. but after 6 years of Republican lies and corruption, it's gotten to the point where no one can be trusted anymore, least of all an industry that's in bed with a political party... and vice versa.

[ronniehm]

Uh yeah, that's a great theory there. Too bad the price of gas actually goes down when the price of oil goes down. Apparently every single investor in the world is in on the conspiracy and every OPEC nation agreed to take a loss as well. Fascinating.

[doyle2006]

while taking a tour of the White House i look under the presidents desk and saw two buttons one said "raise gas prices" and the other said "lower gas prices" so its all TRUE! under that same desk was also all the documents of how the government blew up the twin towers.

[ronniehm]

They ever get rid of the stains under there from the last tenant?

[nothappyatall]

"Supply and demand determine gas prices, he says, and apart from controlling the relatively small strategic petroleum reserve, %u201Cthere%u2019s virtually nothing the president can do to impact oil prices and gas prices.%u201D

Oh SURE, mr OIL TYCOON Man himself and his OIL buddies, the same ones that have raped us all along. Its no secret they love bush and his repubic-CON regime, they made record profits quarter after quarter after quarter while claiming the crude oil COSTS went up, so they can afford a one or two month loss to get their buddies in power Nov7.

Supply and demand eh? so we all dropped our demand by what? 50% in a couple of months? or was it we suddenly found 50% more oil sitting around?
When CLinton was in office and gas prices went up he was calling for an investigation, soon as he did that the prices mysteriously dropped each time. Funny how BUSH seemed to defend the oil company profits.
Watch the prices go right back up after Nov 7th.

[tom_gwynn]

I'd be inclined to believe that that is is "preposterous" as they say, and that supply and demand dictate prices... except that's *exactly* what they said about the electrical energy crisis in California, also during this president's tenure. Anyone remember that? "No evidence of collusion or manipulation" they said. Except that when all Enron's dirty laundry was hung out to dry, it was proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that that is *exactly* what the energy companies were doing. They deliberately shut down plants, caused congestion, and gamed the -bleep- out of the system to line their own pockets. No, this drop in prices is no accident. Someone is pulling strings. Maybe just a little, maybe a lot, but never doubt they are being pulled.

[frankly6]

I don't think this is a coicidence.

[peterbaldwin-2009]

They are not telling you all of the statistics: 42% believe that the Bush administration is manipulating the price; another 56% believe that the oil companies themselves are manipulating the prices to ward off the possibility humongus excess profits taxes imposed by unpatriotic Democrats; the remaining 2% believe that (1) "market forces" are at work and (2)there is a Santa Claus.

[alphaa10-2009]

To American consumers, the oil industry persistently explained oil price increases to "market forces"-- essentially a black box type of explanation which is impervious to all verification. We simply had to take their word for it.

But ignorance is fertile ground for fraud and deceit. The ability to set prices without oversight and verification is the ideal situation for a con artist, or predatory monopoly. The oil industry is actutely sensitive to factors in its environment and capable of manipulating them to its advantage at every turn.

Essential to oil monopoly and market manipulation is a cop who looks the other way. At no time, however, has Bush called the oil industry even to account for its price variations, much less rollback the windfall profits made from our wallets and standard of living. Bush will phone us, just as he phones al Maliki from time to time, just to keep hope alive-- but does nothing to bring it closer.

[alphaa10-2009]

RonnieHM said-- "Uh yeah, that's a great theory there. Too bad the price of gas actually goes down when the price of oil goes down."
--
The oil industry *does* clumsily trace the value of crude in the world market, but its lack of grace in following the crude price up and down has all the precision of a pickpocket. As you well know, fortunes are made (or lost) in the lag or margin between indicator and following action.

The Exxon Valdez disaster demonstrates that "lag" principle all too well. In 1989, under Bush, Sr., Exxon was fined about $5 billion in damages by an Alaskan jury-- equivalent to about one year's Exxon profits. Closely calculating its burden, Exxon saw it was actually unprofitable to pay its fine and move on. Exxon reasoned that each year it delayed payment of its obligation, it earns an estimated $400 million from the difference between the statutory interest rate of six percent on judgments and the company's internal return of about 14 percent. The 1989 fine is still unpaid.

[ronniehm]

So today's theory is that Bush is attempting to gain approval by lowering gas prices, but just to make it look good, he let gas prices hit record levels so his approval rating would take an incredible beating. Uh, yeah, that might be it.

[ronniehm]

alphaa, you are obviously unaware of the difference between oil prices and oil futures. Please don't bother making economic arguments with me until you know how oil is sold.

[ronniehm]

Oh and the $5 billion judgement against Exxon was thrown out, mainly because they already paid $2.1 billion to clean it up and they paid over a billion to settle various law suits that resulted from the accident. Also, punitive damages that are 17 times actual damages were ruled unconstitutional. But hey, why let the facts get in the way of a good argument?

[ronniehm]

"Exxon reasoned that each year it delayed payment of its obligation, it earns an estimated $400 million from the difference between the statutory interest rate of six percent on judgments and the company's internal return of about 14 percent."

By the way, if you're going to quote an attorney general word for word, just say so. You don't have to add a few words and pretend that you know what they were thinking at Exxon.

[themooniac]

You can't fake me out. I don't think it's any accident prices are falling on gasoline as the election nears. The Republicans' buddies in big oil have reaped a windfall with Bush in office - do you honestly think they are going to give up their boys? You can also bet they have their legion of fat cat buddies pushing the story that this gasoline conspiracy talk is all just craziness. Remember when the administration got caught paying reporters to place favorable stories masquerading as news?? Don't believe me? Google either "White House and fake news" or "Mike Morris and fake news" The GAO called it "covert propaganda" in their report on the subject. See Seattle Times _January 8, 2005.

[edjohn66]

Um, how is this a shock to anyone?

Remember how it came out in the fall of 2004 that Saudi oil ministers were working on a deal to increase production right before the presidential elections?

Bush tried it once and got away with it, why wouldn't he do the same thing again?

[ronniehm]

Oh, now we're back to that brilliant strategy where Bush raises the prices to record levels to destroy his approval rating and then lowers the price to make it go up a bit. Nope, can't fake you geniuses out. That must be it.

[optimas2]

And, in other news, 42 percent of people are morons.

[kevboom]

The prez may have nothing to do with oil prices, but those running the companies are fully aware of the effect a drop of .60 - .80 can have on public opinion polls and the blame placed on politicians, deserved or not. Of course it's market manipulation, as will be painfully clear when prices shoot back up .75 after the election just in time for Christmas travel. Corporations protect their Republican friends, plain and simple. If the people don't stand up at the polls, they only have themselves to blame.

[heresmy2cent]

"Coincidence?" Yeah, right.

[kbworkman-2009]

Perfect correlation?


Could you explain that? Show the figures you used to come to this conclusion?

Have you checked for correlation to other factors, such as the per barrel price of oil? Who sets that price? Not the president.

Sounds like you like to manipulate the numbers to support your own agenda.

[ronniehm]

Well, kevboom, any insight on how oil companies dropped the price 80 cents a gallon when their profit is less than 10 cents a gallon? Any thoughts on why they would allow prices to remain so high for so long and then drop prices for just a few weeks? No? Here's another conspiracy theory for you. The price of gas goes down soon after the price of oil goes down, and it's a price set by investors and countries like Iran, not oil companies. My god, that's so crazy it can't be true. It makes it look like the price of oil can be manipulated by people who hate Bush. Nooooooo.

[ronniehm]

Here's a perfect correlation. Every time there's an election, CBS runs a slew of misleading stories that feed stupid conspiracy theories like this - ahh ahhhh ahhhhh danrathergate! - (excuse me) in order to put Democrats in office. It's strong evidence that CBS doesn't think Democrats can win an election any other way. They're probably right.

[random_radar]

Gas prices rise every summer when people drive more, and they drop again in the fall when everyone is in school and back at work. It happens the same every year, not just election years. I don't know why people cry about it except that their memory is so short they can't recall last year.

[themooniac]

The oil companies will do anything to keep their buddies in power. Do you think the oil companies can't manipulate the price of oil - duh. Besides that you can see from these posts - NO ONE BELIEVES A WORD THE REPUBLICANS SAY ANYMORE. And everyone know now that they will stop at nothing to stay in power. They have themselves to blame for all this conspiracy talk !! 21 days left until the day of reckoning baby.

[ronniehm]

"Do you think the oil companies can't manipulate the price of oil - duh."

Uh huh, they manipulated the price of oil in every single country on the planet. I guess Hugo Chavez (who is apparently in on it) just can't wait to see if his brilliant strategy to help Bush works in November. You people have a screw loose.

[leediesen]

the price of fuel goes up gas,diesel,propane,natural gas,heating fuels,even wood by the coard. none of it ever come's back down to the level of any given year,this drives up the cost of food,clothing,and essentuals of living.which doesen't seem to change much. but I'll bet our C.O.L.A is 1.7 to 2.5 %increase again.

[forparity]

The historical significance of the BS the MSM is spinning on GAS. gary

Aug 09, 2004 183.9
Aug 16, 2004 184.2
Aug 23, 2004 185.4
Aug 30, 2004 182.7
Sep 06, 2004 181.5
Sep 13, 2004 181.3
Sep 20, 2004 183.9
Sep 27, 2004 189.5
Oct 04, 2004 190.2
Oct 11, 2004 194.9
Oct 18, 2004 198.4
Oct 25, 2004 198
Nov 01, 2004 198.6
Nov 08, 2004 195.1
Nov 15, 2004 191.8
Nov 22, 2004 190.1
Nov 29, 2004 190.3
Dec 06, 2004 186.8
Dec 13, 2004 179.9
Dec 20, 2004 177.7
Dec 27, 2004 175.4
Jan 03, 2005 174.5

Oh, well how about the 2002 election?

Aug 05, 2002 135.5
Aug 12, 2002 135.5
Aug 19, 2002 135.7
Aug 26, 2002 136.5
Sep 02, 2002 135.3
Sep 09, 2002 135.5
Sep 16, 2002 136.7
Sep 23, 2002 135.7
Sep 30, 2002 138.5
Oct 07, 2002 141.6
Oct 14, 2002 142.2
Oct 21, 2002 144.3
Oct 28, 2002 142.7
Nov 04, 2002 142.7
Nov 11, 2002 140.6
Nov 18, 2002 137
Nov 25, 2002 133.6
Dec 02, 2002 131.6
Dec 09, 2002 131.6

Wow - same thing. Yup guess the media is on to something!

[themooniac]

To RonnieHM: You got three weeks left to swift boat someone or find another Lewinsky in the woodpile ol' buddy. And it does'nt look like Ohio is going to go your way either this time... Hey remember when Cheney shot that guy in the face?? NOW THAT WAS FUNNY. Better keep him away from the rifle rack for the next three weeks. Good luck on the 7th

[ronniehm]

Yeah, heard it in 2004 ... and 2002 ... and 2000. You'd think Democrats would have learned how to time an October surprise by now. Sorry, you peaked with Foley a few weeks to early. The polls are already heading back to where they were last month. Ooops. Maybe 2008.

[frankly6]

It's not a coincidence. It also won't be a coicidence when it goes back up right after the election.

[frankly6]

The saudies can easily mainipulate global oil prices and have done so for years. the bush family has had extremely close ties to the saudi royal family. the saudies have manipulated global oil prices down just before the 2004 elections and then let them rise sharply afterward. they seem to be doing just that right now. no big surprise there.

[ronniehm]

"It also won't be a coicidence when it goes back up right after the election."

You mean just like it DIDN'T go up after the last two elections?

Oh.

OK.

"the saudies have manipulated global oil prices down just before the 2004 elections and then let them rise sharply afterward."

My god, the prices are SITTING RIGHT THERE ON YOUR SCREEN about FIVE POSTS DOWN. Which week did they rise sharply after the 2004 election? They ROSE BEFORE THE ELECTION and they DROPPED AFTER THE ELECTION.

You're not just wrong. You're ... wow. The facts are actually the opposite of what you said. Wow.

Hey, when you go vote, remember "R" stands for Democrat. Don't forget now.

[ronniehm]

This is just off-the-scale irresponsible journalism, and some of you people just eat it up like a bunch of suckers. There are a number of false statements in this article ... not spin, lies ... and people just go around quoting it like they know what they're talking about. How the heII do you look at two numbers and say one is higher when it's actually lower? Astounding.

[frankly6]

The saudies can easily mainipulate global oil prices and have done so for years. the bush family has had extremely close ties to the saudi royal family. the saudies have manipulated global oil prices down just before the 2004 elections and then let them rise sharply afterward. they seem to be doing just that right now. no big surprise there.

[ronniehm]

"the saudies have manipulated global oil prices down just before the 2004 elections and then let them rise sharply afterward."

My god, the prices are SITTING RIGHT THERE ON YOUR SCREEN about FIVE POSTS DOWN. Which week did they rise sharply after the 2004 election? They ROSE BEFORE THE ELECTION and they DROPPED AFTER THE ELECTION.

You're not just wrong. You're ... wow. The facts are actually the opposite of what you said. Wow.

Hey, when you go vote, remember "R" stands for Democrat. Don't forget now.

[billycalv]

More CBS "myopic zeal".

[frankly6]

The saudies can easily mainipulate global oil prices and have done so for years. the bush family has had extremely close ties to the saudi royal family. the saudies have manipulated global oil prices down just before the 2004 elections and then let them rise sharply afterward. they seem to be doing just that right now. no big surprise there.