Gas Drops At Election Time: Coincidence?

(CBS)  For two months now, gas prices have been in freefall, plunging 81 cents a gallon since August and giving the president some rare good news.

Gas prices started going down, CBS News correspondent Anthony Mason reports, just as the fall campaign began to heat up. Coincidence? Some drivers don't think so.

"And I think its basically a ploy to sort of get the American people to think: 'Well, the economy is going good, let's vote Republican,'" says one man pumping his gas.

Call the conspiracy theory crazy, but it's spreading through Internet blogs and over the airwaves. And a recent Gallup/USA Today poll found that 42 percent of people actually believe the Bush administration has "deliberately manipulated" the price of gas to effect the election.

"You don't think gas prices matter? Just ask Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter & Ronald Reagan," say University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato. "They'll all tell you that their victories or defeats depended in part on the cost of gas at the pump."

In fact, there is an uncanny connection between President Bush's popularity and the price at the pump. As gas prices rise, the president's approval rating tends to sink.

"You see what appears to be an almost perfect correlation that the president's approval is really driven by gas prices," says Andy LaPerriere, an analyst with ISI Group.

But La Perriere says there's no conspiracy.

"It's preposterous," he says.

Supply and demand determine gas prices, he says, and apart from controlling the relatively small strategic petroleum reserve, "there's virtually nothing the president can do to impact oil prices and gas prices."

In any case, it's Iraq that's now weighing down President Bush's poll numbers. Lower gas prices have made Americans feel better about the economy, but they're not making them feel better about the president.

[frankly6]

The saudies can easily mainipulate global oil prices and have done so for years. the bush family has had extremely close ties to the saudi royal family. the saudies have manipulated global oil prices down just before the 2004 elections and then let them rise sharply afterward. they seem to be doing just that right now. no big surprise there.

[billycalv]

More CBS "myopic zeal".

[ronniehm]

"the saudies have manipulated global oil prices down just before the 2004 elections and then let them rise sharply afterward."

My god, the prices are SITTING RIGHT THERE ON YOUR SCREEN about FIVE POSTS DOWN. Which week did they rise sharply after the 2004 election? They ROSE BEFORE THE ELECTION and they DROPPED AFTER THE ELECTION.

You're not just wrong. You're ... wow. The facts are actually the opposite of what you said. Wow.

Hey, when you go vote, remember "R" stands for Democrat. Don't forget now.

[frankly6]

The saudies can easily mainipulate global oil prices and have done so for years. the bush family has had extremely close ties to the saudi royal family. the saudies have manipulated global oil prices down just before the 2004 elections and then let them rise sharply afterward. they seem to be doing just that right now. no big surprise there.

[ronniehm]

This is just off-the-scale irresponsible journalism, and some of you people just eat it up like a bunch of suckers. There are a number of false statements in this article ... not spin, lies ... and people just go around quoting it like they know what they're talking about. How the heII do you look at two numbers and say one is higher when it's actually lower? Astounding.

[ronniehm]

"It also won't be a coicidence when it goes back up right after the election."

You mean just like it DIDN'T go up after the last two elections?

Oh.

OK.

"the saudies have manipulated global oil prices down just before the 2004 elections and then let them rise sharply afterward."

My god, the prices are SITTING RIGHT THERE ON YOUR SCREEN about FIVE POSTS DOWN. Which week did they rise sharply after the 2004 election? They ROSE BEFORE THE ELECTION and they DROPPED AFTER THE ELECTION.

You're not just wrong. You're ... wow. The facts are actually the opposite of what you said. Wow.

Hey, when you go vote, remember "R" stands for Democrat. Don't forget now.

[frankly6]

The saudies can easily mainipulate global oil prices and have done so for years. the bush family has had extremely close ties to the saudi royal family. the saudies have manipulated global oil prices down just before the 2004 elections and then let them rise sharply afterward. they seem to be doing just that right now. no big surprise there.

[frankly6]

It's not a coincidence. It also won't be a coicidence when it goes back up right after the election.

[ronniehm]

Yeah, heard it in 2004 ... and 2002 ... and 2000. You'd think Democrats would have learned how to time an October surprise by now. Sorry, you peaked with Foley a few weeks to early. The polls are already heading back to where they were last month. Ooops. Maybe 2008.

[themooniac]

To RonnieHM: You got three weeks left to swift boat someone or find another Lewinsky in the woodpile ol' buddy. And it does'nt look like Ohio is going to go your way either this time... Hey remember when Cheney shot that guy in the face?? NOW THAT WAS FUNNY. Better keep him away from the rifle rack for the next three weeks. Good luck on the 7th