Dire Predictions On Tobacco Deaths

Health Officials Predict Toll Could Reach 1 Billion In 21st Century

(CBS/AP)  Curbing tobacco use and taking other steps to eliminate some of the most common risk factors for cancer could save millions of lives over the next few decades, health officials said Monday.

Tobacco alone is predicted to kill a billion people this century, 10 times the toll it took in the 20th century, if current trends hold.

"In all of world history, this is the largest train wreck not waiting to happen," said John Seffrin, chief executive officer of the American Cancer Society.

Reducing tobacco use would have the single largest effect on global cancer rates, Seffrin and other health officials said Monday in unveiling two reference guides that chart global tobacco use and cancer.

Changing diets to contain fewer saturated fats and more fruits and vegetables, as well as reducing infection by cancer-causing viruses and bacteria, could also cut rates dramatically, they said.

"We know with cancer, if we take action now, we can save 2 million lives a year by 2020 and 6.5 million by 2040," said Dr. Judith Mackay, a World Health Organization senior policy adviser.

Today, tobacco accounts for one in five cancer deaths, or 1.4 million deaths worldwide each year, according to the new Cancer Atlas. When deaths from tobacco-related cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases are included, the yearly death toll rises to nearly 5 million and it's expected to keep going up.

Public health officials also said Monday that the number of teenagers smoking is again on the rise, reports CBS News correspondent Sharyn Alfonsi. For the first time in a decade the number of teen smokers grew — from about 21.9 percent in 2003 to 23 percent in 2005. Seffrin tells Alfonsi that this seemingly tiny increase is a big, red flag.

"I see the stopping of a decline," he says. "When you quit spending money on interventions that work, unfortunately, you can go backwards in this world."

Seffrin says lawmakers are blowing it by cutting funding for prevention efforts and refusing to regularly raise taxes on cigarettes — a proven way to discourage teen smokers. Meanwhile, reports Alfonsi, a new report shows tobacco companies have nearly tripled the amount of money they spend on advertising, from $5 billion to $15 billion in just five years. In addition, she reports, researchers say smoking on the big screen is at levels not seen since the 1950s.