McCain-Romney Michigan Showdown

Weekly Standard: Nomination Rides On Heated Primary Race

(Weekly Standard) 

It's generally acknowledged that had Romney run against Granholm, his name recognition would have brought him an easy victory. But Smietanka's nomination launched one of the most meteoric political ascendancies in recent history. In four years, Granholm went from unknown attorney to state attorney general to governor.

For this Engler is owed some credit: He alone saw Granholm coming. "Basically, the governor saw Attorney General Granholm as the threat, and he was right--charismatic, feminine, and had everything going for her," says a former state Republican legislator who worked on the Scott Romney campaign. He asked not to be identified.

The state GOP still hasn't totally recovered from the '98 attorney general election. "I think in hindsight everybody will agree that Engler was right and Yob was wrong and the Republicans ended up with a weak nominee who then lost to Granholm, and now where are they?" says Ballenger.

Even eight years later, Yob is blamed for the loss in 1998, and the wounds are still tender in the Michigan GOP. Says Ballenger, "If McCain has hired John Yob, that might cause him some problems in Michigan because there're going to be a lot of people in the Republican organization who are just automatically going to not want to support McCain as much as they might otherwise, simply because they know the Yobs are working for him."

Michigan GOP vs. Michigan GOP

It's a little unfair to blame Yob for losing the governorship in 2002--Smietanka may have been a weak candidate, but it was a tight race that might have been won had Romney supporters not poisoned the well with the child support allegations. Regardless, Yob's willingness to take on the state party makes him a favorite punching bag for the state Republican establishment--the Sterling Corporation included.

The struggle between the two groups represents a battle between old and new. The Sterling Corporation is almost a modern full-service PR firm, albeit a very politically connected one. Chuck and John Yob are a family political machine who don't even have a website.

Observers seem to think that the Yobs' comparative lack of resources against Sterling will be a liability. The Yobs are primarily known in Michigan for their ability to win state party convention battles--not statewide primaries. "Remember, running a campaign in a state convention is much, much different than running a presidential primary," says Ballenger.

So why would McCain attach himself to Chuck Yob, a Bush supporter in 2000 and a man who's actively disliked by a sizable percentage of the state's Republican power brokers? Probably because in order to carry Michigan, McCain needs someone who can take on the entire state party--and win.

Going back to 2000, when McCain won the Michigan primary, there's been a raging debate about the state's primary rules. "The reason [McCain] won last time--it was an anomaly, and it was an anomaly because there was an open primary in Michigan, and the Democrats had their caucus on a different date, and the Republicans had an open primary," says Ginster. "Then Engler, who was a lightning rod conservative, came out and said Michigan was going to be the firewall for Dubya, and so all the independents and Oakland County women and Democrats came out."

In fact, the turnout was unprecedented for a Republican primary. "It was a lot more than the Republicans coming to vote, so that's what put McCain over the top. The teachers' unions just wanted to stick it to Engler. And that's why he [McCain] won," says Ginster. And this was in spite of the fact that McCain's effort in Michigan was lacking. "His organization at the time was a joke. . . . He had no endorsements, nothing going for him. It was just 'stick it to Engler,'" says Ginster.

The outcome of the 2000 primary incensed the state party. Engler's failure to deliver Michigan for Bush largely killed his chances at a prominent position in the Bush administration. "The way the Republicans had set up the rules in Michigan in 2000, it totally blew up in their face. . . . If you just looked at the people who were self-identified Republicans in the Republican primary, Bush won amongst those," says Ballenger.

Arguing that the primary results weren't representative of Michigan Republicans, Engler and the state party tried to rejigger the rules after the fact to send mainly Bush delegates to the national convention instead of mainly McCain delegates. Of course, this had to be approved by the district caucuses at the state convention in August.

"It didn't really make any difference because Bush won the nomination nationally and McCain had conceded. But McCain was very proud of his victory in Michigan, and he wanted the people that supported him to be rewarded with delegates. He protested, and he was quite bitter about it," says Ballenger.

McCain got a taste of Yob's power at the state convention firsthand in 2000. The senator made a personal phone call to Yob. Despite being a Bush supporter, Yob agreed with McCain and used his influence at the state convention to stop Engler's plan to usurp McCain's delegates.

Now, with the 2008 primary fast approaching, GOP chair Anuzis and the Sterling Corporation have been busy trying to batten down the hatches, closing the primary. "A presidential primary is Katie-bar-the-door, and the rules they've got in place in Michigan are incredible," says Ballenger. "Unless they're changed--and they might be--it's an open primary."

An open primary bodes very well for McCain, who demonstrated his appeal among the state's independents and Democrats in 2000. It would be especially bad for Romney, since the DNC is talking of moving up its Michigan primary. Once again, Republicans could end up with an open primary on a different date from the Democratic primary. Mitt Romney's association with the Republican party chair also makes him the establishment candidate--Democrats could show up in droves, this time not just to stick it to Engler but to stick it to the Republican party.

Still, with Anuzis at the head of the party, Romney is well positioned to get tighter primary rules in place before the election. Unfortunately, all rule changes are ultimately decided at a GOP state committee meeting. Committee members are elected at the state convention--the same place where Yob is a "god with a small g."

"That will play out over the next six to eight months--we're supposed to be paying attention to the governor's race and the senator's race, but there's a lot of jockeying over this rules thing, and it's the most fun the state committee has had in years," says Fred Wszolek. "This is actually something consequential, and state committee members love arcane rules fights."

Given that the battle will be fought on the Yobs' turf, it's certain that this is the most fun Chuck and John Yob have had in years--perhaps since 1998.

So while camera crews descend on Iowa and New Hampshire in the next year, those interested in the 2008 presidential election might be better off keeping an eye trained on the Michigan GOP's smoke-filled rooms, where a handful of the party faithful will enter into an "arcane rules debate," the resolution of which will be driven by personal rivalries and allegiances. Given Michigan's significance in the next election, they may inadvertently decide the leader of the free world before a single vote is cast.


Mark Hemmingway is a correspondent for Market News International and a writer in Washington, D.C.