Iraq insurgency to go on after al-Zarqawi, but change of tactics likely

(AP) Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's death doesn't mean an end to the insurgency in Iraq _ but it could mean a change in strategy.

Some Iraqi militants opposed the Jordanian-born al-Zarqawi's attacks on Shiite civilians and want to focus more on U.S. and Iraqi troops. His death could grant them their wish since it raises the possibility of a new al-Qaida in Iraq with a different target list.

"What Iraqi Sunnis want in Iraq is different from what al-Zarqawi wants," said Sadeq al-Musawi, who until February was President Jalal Talabani's political adviser. "Sunnis want to push out foreign forces from Iraq. Al-Zarqawi ... wanted Islamic rule and wanted to instigate civil war between Sunnis and Shiites."

The death on Wednesday of the al-Qaida in Iraq leader could also provide an opening for the Iraqi government to try to woo Sunni insurgents.

Deputy Prime Minister Salam Zikam Ali al-Zubaie, a Sunni, said the national unity government of Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was open to contacts with armed groups except those involved in the killing of civilians or opposed to the U.S.-backed political process.

There have been contacts in the past between envoys of the U.S. and Iraqi governments and various insurgent groups, but none is known to have produced any deals or progressed beyond the preliminary stages.

"Al-Qaida in Iraq and its supporters must be shaken by al-Zarqawi's death," al-Zubaie said Friday. "It has given security forces a boost," al-Zubaie said.

Al-Zarqawi was the insurgency's most prominent leader and considered a hero among his supporters. But his tactics raised tensions with other insurgent groups. U.S. and Iraqi officials constantly sought to fuel the tensions by deriding him as a foreigner who came to Iraq to kill civilians.

His attacks on Shiites also raised problems with al-Qaida's top leadership.

Osama bin Laden's deputy, Ayman al-Zawahri, reportedly advised al-Zarqawi to stop the attacks in a letter last year. Still, al-Zawahri went out of his way to praise the militant leader in two videotapes this year, one of them airing on Al-Jazeera on Friday.

Mustafa al-Ani, an Iraqi analyst based in Dubai, believes al-Zarqawi's dictatorial style of leadership had something to do with his problems with Iraqi groups.

"His removal could help reconciliation between al-Qaida in Iraq and Iraqi resistance groups," he said. "Al-Qaida in Iraq could become more prominent if it rebuilds its bridges with the Iraqi mujahedeen and if it improves relations with Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida network."

A great deal, however, depends on who succeeds al-Zarqawi and whether he will continue killing Shiite civilians with the intention of sparking a sectarian civil war.

Maj. Gen. William Caldwell, the chief U.S. military spokesman in Iraq, pointed on Friday to an Egyptian-born al-Zarqawi aide, Abu Ayyub al-Masri, as the "most logical" successor.

He said the two first met in 2001 or 2002 in Afghanistan and have been close since. Al-Masri came to Iraq in 2003 and set up al-Qaida's first cell in Baghdad, he added.

Evan Kohlman, a New York-based terror consultant, said Abu Abdul-Rahman al-Iraqi, the group's deputy leader who signed the al-Qaida statement announcing al-Zarqawi's death, was the likely successor.

Al-Iraqi, as the name suggests, is possibly an Iraqi, although al-Qaida operatives are known to use the country in which they operate as part of an alias.

Another non-Iraqi like al-Masri at the head of al-Qaida in Iraq may not bode well for an end to the killing of civilians. As a non-Iraqi, al-Zarqawi may have had little regard for Iraqi lives, allowing his hatred of Shiites to influence his actions.

But a figure like al-Masri could prove to be more respectful toward his superiors at al-Qaida and heed warnings like al-Zawahri's to stop killing Shiite civilians.

"Zarqawi pushed his policy to suit foreign fighters," Kohlman said. "The question is whether an Iraqi leader would continue the same policy."

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AP correspondents Qassim Abdul-Zahra in Baghdad, Iraq, Jasper Mortimer and Maggie Michael in Cairo, Egypt, contributed to this report.