WASHINGTON, May 2, 2006
U.S. Plans For Bird Flu Disruptions
Report Sees Quarantines, Closings, Masks, Possibly Civil Disorder
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Play CBS Video Video Scary Details In Bird Flu Plan The federal government's long-awaited plan on how it intends to deal with bird flu has begun leaking out. As Jim Axelrod reports, the details are unsettling to say the least.
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Could scenes like this one three years ago in Hong Kong be repeated in the U.S.? (AP)
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Special Report Bracing For Bird Flu U.S. officials continue to take steps to prepare for and minimize the potential impact of the disease.
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Interactive Bird Flu Soars Follow the spread of the virus around the globe, find out about the threat to humans and get details about U.S. preparations
The computer-predicted scenario by the agency was published a week after researchers at Imperial College in London showed the United States could do little to slow a pandemic if it hit now.
Cooper said the computer model was based on "optimistic assumptions" and that shutting down nearly all air travel won't stop the flu's spread because there isn't enough vaccine to inoculate everybody.
A third study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences earlier this month suggested that even a 90 percent reduction in domestic travel would slow the spread of the flu in the United States by only a few days to weeks and would not reduce the eventual size of the outbreak.
Robert G. Webster, a virologist at the St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee, said it has been historically rare for bird influenza viruses to reach the Americas from Europe.
He said infected birds being smuggled into the U.S. pose a bigger threat right now than fears that migratory birds en route to America might mix with infected birds from Europe or Asia.
"While wildlife people in the United States are watching for the appearance of this virus, I would suspect that it may not come this year," he told The Associated Press.
"If it doesn't come this year, don't relax, because it will eventually come," said Webster, who is in Singapore ahead of a two-day conference this week that is expected to draw many of the world's leading scientists on bird flu.
The new administration document calls mandatory quarantine a last resort, and urges planners to consider, for example, that closing a community would sever it from the delivery of groceries and other essential goods.
The report aims to energize the private sector, noting that 85 percent of the systems that are vital to society, such as food production, medicine and financial services, are privately run.
Not only would sick workers stay home, but so would anyone who was caring for ill family members, under quarantine because of possible exposure to the flu or taking care of children when schools shut down. The same could go for anyone who simply feels safer at home.
The report envisions possible breakdowns in public order and says governors might deploy National Guard troops or request federal troops to maintain order. The military also could be activated to enforce travel restrictions and deliver vaccines and medicines, the report says.
In other developments:
©MMVI CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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