The Worst-Case Scenario

Is America Ready For A Nuclear Terrorist Attack?

(CBS) 
Over the next three years, Hollis-Eden spent more than $100 million, with the expectation that the government would buy millions of doses.

Finally, last September, the Department of Health & Human Services surprised everyone by announcing that it would commit to purchase a radiation drug from whichever company had the best product, but only 100,000 doses.

No one expected the order to be that small.

"Our stock plummeted. We went to $5 a share. And we were shocked and surprised because we just couldn’t see how they could come to that decision," Marsella says.

No one knows where a terrorist strike might take place, but there are dozens of U.S. cities with populations large enough to be plausible targets.

Drugs would need to be stockpiled in every city, according to Lee Hamilton, Vice Chairman of the 9/11 Commission.

"A hundred thousand doses is not nearly enough," he says. "If you really had a major attack you probably would need much more than that. One estimate we made was that we’d need 10 million doses."

Who made the decision to buy 100,000 doses instead of 10 million? It was Stewart Simonson, the man who oversees Project Bioshield. Simonson is a Republican political appointee who, before running Project Bioshield, was a lawyer for Amtrak. Republicans as well as Democrats have criticized his management of the program.

"Secretary Simonson just appears to be over his head on this particular issue," says Rep. Tom Davis, a Virginia Republican, who chairs the committee that oversees Project Bioshield.

Davis, who usually supports the administration, is taking the unusual step of calling in this story for Simonson’s removal from Bioshield.

He says Simonson lacks the necessary technical and scientific background, and compares him to Michael Brown, the former FEMA director who resigned after Hurricane Katrina.

"Oh, I think that we’re seeing the same kind of issues," says Davis. "Michael Brown had been before our committee prior to Katrina and exhibited the same kind of arrogance, a lack of expertise. This is a serious job at this point, and I think we need to have professionals filling it, not political appointees."

Asked if he thinks Simonson is up to the job, Davis says, "To date he’s been singularly unimpressive in this particular area."

Would he fire Simonson if it was his decision to make?

"I would transfer him out of this. I wouldn’t have him handling this program," says Davis.

Assistant Secretary Simonson has been under fire for committing nearly a billion dollars to acquire a controversial new anthrax vaccine, but he has been given credit for successfully stockpiling drugs for smallpox.

Simonson declined 60 Minutes' request for an interview, but his deputy, Dr. William Raub, was made available. Raub defended his boss.

"When he worked for Amtrak, one of his major responsibilities was terrorist threats against the rail industry. He’s brought a considerable background and expertise and he’s provided strong leadership," he said.

Why did the government decide to buy only 100,000 does to treat acute radiation syndrome?

"Well this is the place to start and we don’t see 100,000 as the end, we see 100,000 as the beginning," says Raub.

"So, if you order 100,000 and there’s a nuclear explosion … when do you get the rest of them?" asks Bradley.

"Again, we take this a step at a time. First off, we need agents that we can be sure will work," Raub replies.

"If we were told four years ago, Ed, that they were only going to buy 100,000 doses, we would have never developed this drug," says Marsella.

But HHS said the initial 100,000-dose order was just a starting point.

"They’re supposed to create a market, not a starting point," says Marsella. "If they were going to buy tanks for the military would they just buy one tank, or would they buy 100 tanks? And I think that the contractor would have a hard time spending all the money and research and not have a guarantee that they’re going to buy more than one tank."

"But they’re not saying, 'We’re only going to buy 100,000 doses.' They’re saying, 'This is where we’re going to start,'" Bradley says.

"How much more are they going to buy, Ed? Do we know that?" says Marsella. "Are they going to say they’re going to buy millions more? See, they won’t commit to that."

"The thing that must be understood here is the urgency of the problem," says Lee Hamilton. "We don’t have an unlimited amount of time here. We know that it is possible to have a nuclear attack very soon, and we must not go about business as usual."