2005: George Bush's Trying Year

John Roberts: Can He Be The 'Comeback Kid' In 2006?

(CBS)  The closing days of the CIA leak investigation went through the White House like a cruise missile. The administration lost control of the headlines. Nothing on the president's agenda could get above a media radar screen that was consumed by pending indictments and speculation over who was going down. In fact, the only thing to trump what became known as "Plamegate" was when the president's second Supreme Court nominee, Harriet Miers, fell on her sword and bowed out under pressure from Mr. Bush's conservative base. And the very next day, the vice president's chief of staff stepped down — the sole target of indictments in the CIA leak investigation. After Katrina, it would have been hard to imagine the president could have a worse week. But this certainly came close. How bad was the fall? In most polls, President Bush's approval rating was hovering between 35 and 38 percent. Three years earlier it had been at 90 percent. There was a mitigating factor in all this though. With his choice of Samuel Alito to replace Harriet Miers, the president won back the support of conservatives who had wondered just how far off the reservation he had strolled.

The White House knew it had to get back in the game or risk lame duck status with three years still left. Republicans were leaning on the president's political shop to retake the offensive on Iraq. To do that, they said he had to be more candid about the situation on the ground there. Be open about the problems. Americans are a forgiving people. You tell them you screwed up and you're trying to fix it, they just may be inclined to support you.

The four speeches President Bush gave leading up to the Dec. 15 Iraqi elections were a pivot point in a couple of ways. The first was that the president admitted — for the first time — mistakes had been made in Iraq and that the strategy on the ground had shifted to meet those challenges. The second pivot was a shift in public opinion. His numbers began to tick up, though it was difficult to know how much of that was due to his new candor about Iraq, or Americans finally getting the idea that the economy was pretty good. In the end, it was a combination of both.

One issue on which the jury is still out is the NSA spying scandal. Members of Congress are mulling over the prudence of conducting hearings into the program. The White House believes it has the high road, warning Congress that any public airing of the intelligence operations of America will only harm national security. President Bush makes the point that he will do anything within legal bounds to protect Americans from terrorist attack, and that the majority of voters will agree with his tactics. In the end this could turn out to be a plus for the White House.

So, can President Bush be the "Comeback Kid"? Well, a lot has to do with what happens in Iraq. If Iraqis can put together a truly representative government that includes Shiites, Kurds and Sunnis, he may have a chance to claim victory and begin to pull U.S. troops out. Should the Shiite religious parties, with their Iranian affiliations, take control and marginalize the Sunnis it could turn the political climate in Iraq into a petri dish for all-out civil war. Not that anyone (outside die-hard Baathists) would long for the return of Saddam Hussein, but it would certainly be a long way from the stable, democratic Iraq President Bush was looking for. And who knows what would happen with U.S. troops in that situation. Would they withdraw and let Iraqis fight it out? Unlikely. Or would they get stuck there for years to come? The only thing certain about Iraq is that no one knows what will happen.

Like the connective tissue that keeps our bodies from falling apart, Iraq is the thread that runs through President Bush's political fortunes. It is the issue Republicans most fear heading into the mid-term elections. Political analysts don't expect Republicans could lose control of Congress, but if Iraq remains a hotbed of violence, potential civil war and a new base for terrorist operations abroad, voters certainly could go to the polls looking for change.

The most astute political analysts and members of Congress hope President Bush can get back on the winning side of the scoreboard. There is too much at risk, they say — for the reputation and future of this country — to have it any other way.