Flu Pandemic Could Cost Asia $300B

New Reports Warn That Outbreak Could Push World Into A Recession

(CBS/AP)  A flu pandemic could kill 3 million people in Asia, trigger economic carnage in the region worth almost $300 billion and push the world into a recession, the Asian Development Bank warned Thursday.

The warning was among several dire scenarios pictured by the bank in a report that examined the likely effects on the region if bird flu produces a human pandemic that slashes consumer demand and sickens millions of workers.

In its grimmest scenario, in which the psychological impact of a pandemic lasts one year, the bank said Asia could loss almost $282.7 billion or 6.5 percent of gross domestic product, in consumption, trade and investment and another $14.2 billion due to workers' incapacity and death.

" ... Growth in Asia would virtually stop," the report said.

The economic impact would likely force the world into a recession, it said.

The scenario assumes about 20 percent of Asia's population would fall ill, and 0.5 percent of them would die.

In a less pessimistic scenario, the bank said that if the psychological impact of an outbreak lasted 6 months, the cost to Asia in lost consumption, trade and investment would be about $99 billion.

China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand would likely be hit hardest by the pandemic, the bank predicted.

In related developments:

Charles Lambert, a U.S. deputy undersecretary of agriculture held talks with Chinese officials on coordinating anti-bird flu strategy on Wednesday, warning that excessive steps in banning poultry could discourage governments from reporting outbreaks. "If countries overreact and are overly punitive in their reaction when this disease is reported, that reduces the incentive for other countries to report," Lambert said.

A swan that flew into Croatia from neighboring Hungary carried the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu, the agriculture ministry said Wednesday. Hungary's Agriculture Ministry said it was not planning to increase the number of tests on birds nor introduce new preventive measures beyond those already in place.

On Wednesday, China's Premier Wen Jiabao announced sweeping new anti-bird flu measures, ordering more aggressive research on a vaccine, tighter disease monitoring and punishment for failure to report outbreaks.

A 50-year-old woman in a northern suburb of the Thai capital of Bangkok was diagnosed with bird flu, Deputy Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said Monday Oct. 31, 2005. She is the third case this year.

On Oct. 28, Chinese and Thai officials called for measures to prevent an outbreak that they warned could infect millions of people. In China, officials went on television to try to reassure the public, saying they were capable of stopping the virus. They said human cases would be quarantined and warned that anyone who tries to hide and outbreak would be punished.

Indonesian Agriculture Minister Anton Apriyantono warned that the virus could spread quickly through the densely populated archipelago since wild pigeons and other birds already were infected.

Australia's health minister warned that his nation might have to close its borders in the event of a human epidemic, while a Hong Kong lawmaker suggested arming the public to shoot migratory birds.

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©MMV, CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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