Hillary's 50-50 Shot At Presidency

Some Say Deeply Divided Electorate Gives Clinton Even-Money Chance

(CBS) 
But dangers abound for the nascent Clinton candidacy:

Gender

Just 62 percent of voters nationwide said they think the country is ready for a woman to become president in 2008, according to a February poll by Siena College. This could prove to be a formidable glass ceiling for a Clinton candidacy. No woman has ever before emerged as a serious threat to capture her party's presidential nomination and perhaps the White House as well. So Clinton is sailing into uncharted waters, with no comfortable historical markers or precedents to guide the journey.

The Bill Factor

The most intriguing wildcard in the Clinton presidential deck is her husband. If people aren't all sure they're ready for a woman president, it's hard to say how they'd react to the idea of electing the wife of a former commander in chief.

While Bill and Hillary talk constantly about politics, they've been careful to keep her role as senator distinct and their joint public appearances are relatively rare. The spouse issue is a delicate one, as the Clintons have learned repeatedly.

During Bill Clinton's second presidential campaign, Hillary famously retreated from her role as get-two-for-one policy adviser and shifted into cookie-baking mode. Her disastrous experience as head of her husband's health care task force reinforced the impression that American voters weren't comfortable with a First Lady as policy maker. No one knows what they'd expect of a First Husband.

Will voters embrace Mr. Clinton as a symbol of the good old days of prosperity at home and peace abroad? Or will they recoil at the idea of sending the oral sexmeister back to the White House, even if it's only to an office in the East Wing?

The GOP

Conservatives are already beating the war drums and won't stand idly by as a Clinton-for-president campaign gains momentum. Some in the party already view Clinton as a formidable threat to continued Republican control of the White House.

Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina — a prime mover in the impeachment proceedings against Bill Clinton – thinks Hillary could win every state John Kerry did, and then some. To Republicans who think a Clinton run might polarize voters in a way that would benefit their candidate, he has this piece of advice: "Be careful what you wish for."

Republican operative Arthur Finkelstein has already launched a "Stop Her Now" campaign and Judicial Watch – a longtime tormentor of the Clintons – has also swung into action. The group wants the Senate to open an ethics investigation in the case of a former Clinton fundraiser charged with understating the cost of a lavish 2000 Clinton bash in Hollywood.

The criminal trial of ex-finance director David Rosen is just getting under way in Los Angeles. Rosen, who has pleaded not guilty, is accused of claiming the fundraiser cost $400,000 when the real cost was more than $1 million.

Clinton's detractors are hoping evidence presented at the trial will provide enough fuel for a Hillary bonfire, but even if that isn't the case, Sen. Clinton can expect a steady stream of fire on her right flank as long as she's seen as a threat to capture the White House.

In her memoir, "Living History," Clinton writes, "The most difficult decisions I have made in my life were to stay married to Bill and to run for Senate from New York."

Now she has another.