Who Will Succeed John Paul II?

Morley Safer On Earthly Considerations In Picking The Next Pope

(CBS)  In the papal stakes, Reese says don’t be surprised if the next pope comes from the continent where the church has the largest flock.

“Latin America is the most Catholic continent in the world,” says Reese. “And many people say, you know, isn’t it their turn? You know, the cardinal from Honduras, Argentina. Even the cardinal from Mexico City. There’s one from Brazil, Cardinal Hummes, who’s been mentioned also.”

Is the possibility of an American becoming pope just out of the question?

“Yes,” says McBrien. “Well, first of all, now this is the first statement I’ll make that’ll get me into trouble. None of them really should be elected pope. Our cardinals don’t tend to, you know, to project that kind of strength. I think the American cardinals generally will line up with the conservatives, and hoping to get a more conservative pope.”

“It’s been a fairly rough couple of years for the church – given the sexual abuse scandals,” says Safer. “Are those scandals going to have an effect on who is selected pope?”

“Well, certainly, you know, among the American bishops, and I would say the Irish bishops and some others where the scandal has been significant – they’re gonna want someone who understands this problem,” says Reese. “The last thing we need is a pope who’s gonna get up and say, ‘This is all a creation of the media. It’s not a real problem.’ No. That would be a disaster for the American church.”

Since John Paul appointed virtually all of the cardinals, it’s assumed an equally doctrinaire successor will be elected. But McBrien says, not necessarily.

“History says no,” says McBrien. “That these men, even though they owe a lot to John Paul II, when they get into the conclave and the likelihood is that most of them will be motivated by the good of the church and not by their own self-interest or of their friends, they’re going to say, ‘Look, he was a great pope. We need a different style now.’”

So they become their own men? “Absolutely. John XXIII, when he was elected, this overweight, cholesterol-ridden, wonderful, loving man from Venice, the patriarch of Venice, when he was elected he was almost 78. He was gonna be a transitional pope. He was gonna be safe,” says McBrien.

“Well, he turned the church on its head in less than five years, and we had a second Vatican Council and a whole new Catholic Church. So you really – the cardinals elect somebody, but they really cannot tell for sure how he’s gonna turn out.”

This time, McBrien is betting on an Italian -- someone who will not rock the boat. The conclave, he says, will be looking for an older man, one whose pontificate will be both short and uneventful.

“They wanna catch their breath after this pope. He’s been like a gush of wind, almost a tornado, in terms of papal history,” says McBrien. “And they want to survey the landscape and see what options they may have. By electing a young man, they would lock themselves in yet again. So I would be looking for an Italian who’s in his 70s that may be a person with a term of about seven or eight years.”

“If the cardinals elect another elderly person to be pope, we’re gonna very quickly, again get into that mode of having a sick, elderly, dying pope,” says Reese. “The popes elected in the 20th century, the average age was 65. I think that’s what they’ll look for.”

“But in this day and age that could mean a papacy of 30 years,” says Safer.

“Yes, it could. I think there will be a lot of discussion in the conclave about the possibility of a pope resigning,” says Reese. “Modern medicine has made it possible for the body to continue to live long after the mind is capable of functioning and working. I think the church has to face this.”

“It’d be better if they had a term limit of 10 years,” says McBrien. “And many have raised that as a possibility for the future.”

But won’t placing a term limit somehow reduce the mystical character of the position?

“Yeah, because it’s true. Not only Catholics, but those who aren’t Catholic kind of look upon the pope as a kind of almost quasi-divine figure,” says McBrien. “You’ll see often on TV in different countries of the world, when they’ll interview people, they’ll say, ‘I felt I was – I had seen Jesus.’” Or they’ll go higher and they’ll say, ‘I felt I have seen God or I’ve been in touch with God.’ And I don’t mean to you know, make fun of that. Or make light of those experiences. But the pope is not Jesus and he’s not God. He’s a man of great talent. But he’s just a man.”

While the pope is the last absolute monarch on earth, John Paul II succeeded in becoming the symbol of freedom around the world. But he held fast on doctrine -- birth control, celibacy and women priests.

But McBrien believes these are relatively minor issues. “Look, women are gonna be ordained, that’s the way history is moving. I mean, it’s gonna be a non-issue pretty soon. Celibacy will go because we’re gonna run out of priests if we don’t change that. Those are really small issues,” says McBrien.

“The real big issue is, how do you make a world which sees net worth and the gathering of creature comforts and powers and possessions as kind of the norm of happiness? How do you get a world like that to say, ‘That fellow with a black face, that gay over there, that homeless person, these are your brothers and sisters, we’re all one human family.’ Birth control, ordination of women, celibacy, they are fly specs on the windowpane compared with that kind of challenge that a new pope will have.”

“In the conclave is it – I know – they’re meant to be guided by spiritual things,” says Safer. “And I’m sure they are.”

“Well, don’t be so sure. I mean, I studied the history of the papacy and most papal elections that hasn’t always been the guiding – but I think it’s true today, the spiritual values are definitely stronger than the political,” says McBrien.

“The trick is to find someone who will have as much of an image of being, you know, no one will have to guess, is the pope Catholic? But at the same time, a pope who will carry on I think the prophetic vision of John Paul II in advocating for the rights of the poor, the powerless, the immigrant, the marginalized, the sick. He was extraordinary in that regard.”