Papal Crystal Ball Gets A Workout

CBS News' Pizzey On Speculation About John Paul's Successor

(CBS) 
The most oft-quoted consensus is that having named all but a handful of the "cardinal electors," the "Princes of the Church" under the age of 80 who are allowed to vote in the next conclave, John Paul II has ensured that his successor will be like him. Church historians, however, point out that many popes have "stacked the deck," as it were, only to have their antithesis elected.

And cardinals invariably remind the impious among the press corps that choosing a pope is not like voting for a politician. As one put it to me; "You have to remember that when the door closes on the Sistine Chapel (where the cardinals meet and vote in secret) it's not just us with the red hats in there. The Holy Spirit had a say as well."

There is a saying that "He who enters the conclave as pope emerges as cardinal."

What that means is that anyone who openly wants the job won't get it. Whether or not being on a "papabile" list is a negative remains to be seen, but it is worth noting that before Karol Wojtyla emerged as John Paul II, he did not feature on any Vatican press corps "papabile" lists, and which probably means that the press has already not guessed the next pope ... not that it will stop "Vaticanisti" from trying.