Iran, Syria & The U.S.

CBS' Tom Fenton On Delicate Balance For U.S. Policy In Mideast

(CBS)  Tom Fenton covered the major news events in Europe, the Middle East, Russia and Africa during his 34-year career as a CBS News correspondent. He writes about world affairs from his Listening Post in London and other locations around the world.

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Ali is 18 years old, a bright, thoroughly westernized, Iranian student whose parents moved to England last year to escape the depressing realities of life in their own country. Ali is now happily enrolled in a British University, studying computer science, and told me he sees his future in Britain and has no plans to return to Tehran.

Like many young educated Iranians, he is thoroughly pro-American and fed up with the corrupt and small-minded mullahs who rule his native country. He would live in America if he could get a visa, but failing that, he has settled here. At one time, just after the United States invaded Iraq and toppled Saddam Hussein, many Iranians even hoped the U.S. Marines would liberate them as well.

But there is another side to this picture. The pro-Americanism of young Iranians is a form of protest against their own regime. How would they react if the United States actually attacked their country? Ali's answer is unequivocal. He told me he would be one of the first to go back to Iran to defend it.

Ali is the reality of today's Iran, and part of the problem facing President Bush as he ponders the next step in his campaign to transform the Greater Middle East.

Iran is close to developing a nuclear weapon. Its politics are complicated. Its history has taught it to be wary of foreign intervention. Left to its own devices, the clerical regime would probably collapse some day because of its own incompetence. But Iran is not a pushover, and its influence with the majority Shia population in Iraq gives it the capacity to make trouble there.

Iran is one of two countries now in the Bush Administration's sights, and both are keenly aware of it. In a gesture that smacks more of fear than defiance, Iran and Syria recently announced a "common front" against the United States, the renewal of an alliance that dates back to the 1980s.

Syria is an easier target. Its relatively inexperienced young leader, Bashar al-Assad, represents a minority sect that has maintained a grip on the country for years - with the backing of the military and intelligence services.

For more than a decade, Syrian troops have also been stationed in Lebanon, ostensibly as peacekeepers but in reality as occupiers who profit handsomely from control of their tiny but relatively rich neighbor.

Syria is furthermore the chief suspect in the Feb. 14th assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, who almost single-handedly rebuilt his country after its civil war and was recently showing signs of wanting to break away from Syrian control. The Bush administration has withdrawn the US ambassador from Damascus as a first step in tightening the screws on Syria.

Iran and Syria are linked by more than an alliance. They are linked by their patronage of a terrorist organization: Hezbollah, which is sponsored by Iran, supported by Syria and operates out of Lebanon.

Hezbollah is Shia - instead of Sunni like al Qaeda - and while it does not operate worldwide, it has shown itself to be a potent force. It took part in Lebanon's civil war, and helped drive the Israeli army out of Lebanon. Hezbollah is a card that Iran and Syria could now play against the U.S.

Any attempt to do so would dramatically increase the stakes in the Middle East, and increase the chances that the Bush Administration would take action against the backers of Hezbollah. For many reasons, the Syrian regime would most likely be America's first target.