Tallying Iraqi Civilian Deaths

(CBS)  Tom Fenton, in his fourth decade with CBS News, has been the network's Senior European Correspondent since 1979. He comments on international events from his "Listening Post" in London, and other parts of the world as well.

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We know exactly how many American and British soldiers have died in the invasion and occupation of Iraq. We can only guess at the number of Iraqis, both military and civilian. We can be sure of only one thing: it far exceeds coalition casualties. Civilians, like truth, are usually the first casualties of war.

In the early days of the invasion of Iraq, Gen. Tommy Franks famously told reporters at his headquarters in Qatar, "We don't do body counts." The Pentagon and our British allies have stuck to that position ever since. They have never given an accounting, or even a rough estimate, of the number of Iraqi civilians who have died in the bombing and crossfire of combat during the invasion, or in he deadly insurgency that still wracks the country.

The United States and Britain, under the Geneva Convention and Hague Regulations, have a binding responsibility as occupying authorities to prevent civilian deaths, including those resulting from the breakdown of law and order and inadequate health care or sanitation. So you might think a little accounting would be in order.

That's what a group of retired military, diplomats and government officials have demanded in an open letter to British Prime Minister Tony Blair. The signatures on the letter were collected by Retired Air Vice Marshall Tim Garden, now a member of the House of Lords. They say a full investigation into the death toll is the only way for Britain to comply with its legal requirement to protect Iraqi civilians. A spokesman for the prime minister said his position would not be changed by the letter.

It has been left up to anti-war campaigners, NGO's and other unofficial sources to provide their own estimates. Chief among them is Iraq Body Count, described as a "database of media-reported civilian deaths in Iraq resulting directly from military action by the USA and its allies." It has compiled roughly 15,000 Iraqi civilian deaths as a result of the war and its aftermath. But attempts to do body counts through deaths reported in the press necessarily underestimate, since areas where civilians are being killed are often areas where journalists don't dare go.

For a few months this year, the Iraqi provisional government published figures obtained by counting bodies arriving at hospitals. Its total was 3,853 civilians killed between April and November. Again, that is necessarily an underestimate, since many of those who are killed or die never reach a hospital.

The most scrupulously scientific effort to arrive at a realistic figure was reported in October by the British medical journal The Lancet. It was, by far, the largest estimate. The study, compiled by epidemiologists from Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, used data gathered on the ground in surveys of 33 population clusters spread throughout Iraq's 18 governorates, and extrapolated for the entire country with standard epidemiological techniques. It estimated there have been 98,000 "excess" civilians deaths since the start or the war. Given the relative size of the two countries, that would be the equivalent of roughly 1,200,000 American deaths

That devastating figure has been widely disputed, especially by the British and American governments. But whatever the truth, it is clear that civilians are usually not only the first casualties of war. They are the most numerous.

By Tom Fenton