GOP Moderates Could Rock The Boat

CBS's Kuhn: 9 Senate GOPers Could Slow Conservative Momentum

(CBS)  By David Paul Kuhn,
CBSNews.com chief political writer

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Moderate Republicans may be an increasingly endangered species, but their power is neverthless likely to grow in the new Senate.

That's because GOP centrists are positioned to be crucial to the passage of President Bush's ambitious legislative agenda, which includes tax reform and important changes in Social Security.

A core group of four Northeasterners that are the furthest from the right plus five other occasional mavericks from around the country, could undercut the widely held post-election view that Mr. Bush will have his way in the GOP-dominated Senate.

“If they stay together as a group, [Republican moderates] can be powerful,” said Associate Senate Historian Donald Ritchie.

At least one of them doesn't think that's likely.

“[Moderates] just haven’t united going back to the spring of 2001 when President Bush first came in," Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chafee told CBSNews.com. "The moderate Republicans weren’t successful at sticking together at that time. Frankly, it’s less likely now. The numbers just aren’t there.”

Still, it remains to be seen if the GOP moderates can or will join with Democrats on some key issues to buck their party and president.

The GOP will hold a 55-45 margin in the Senate come January. But with 60 votes needed to stop a filibuster, Democrats maintain influence. If some or all of the GOP centrists join with the Democrats, the president could face rough sledding.

“The thing about the U.S. Senate is every single member has a lot of clout,” Ritchie said. “In the House you have to spend decades to get the kind of ability that an individual can gain in the Senate because so much of what the Senate does is by unanimous consent. And if you get dissenters in the majority party, they definitely get a say.”

Here's a look at the GOP 9:

Arizona Sen. John McCain’s push for campaign finance reform and criticism of the war in Iraq has irked the White House. But in the past year McCain was an ardent advocate of Mr. Bush’s reelection. His Republican standing reaffirmed, his chairmanship of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation assured, McCain remains the most powerful of centrist Republicans.

Sen. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania made headlines just last week by stating that firmly anti-abortion judicial nominees need not apply to the Judiciary Committee. Specter beat a quick retreat following an outcry by the GOP's conservative wing, and it is no longer a "sure thing" that he will become chairman of the Judiciary Committee in the new Senate.

Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee often votes against the Bush White House. Chafee openly stated that he was considering switching to the Democratic Party before deciding against making a change. He said that the core group of moderates is likely to flex its meager muscle on just a few issues, "It’s going to more on the old-traditional issues, the environment where these northeast Republicans feel strongly, women’s reproductive choice issues, where the moderates find their voice.”

Maine’s two Republican female senators do not walk lockstep with Mr. Bush. Sen. Susan Collins chairs the Senate Homeland Secretary and Governmental Affairs Committee. With Sen. Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., Collins is going to push for Congress to pass intelligence reform when back in session on Nov. 16. She is also defending Specter as being the rightful chair of judiciary.

Sen. Olympia Snowe, also of Maine, is member of the Finance Committee has worked with Democrats on legislation, including Medicare prescription drug coverage.

Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar is considered a possible replacement for Secretary of State Colin Powell. The chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, like Powell, Lugar’s skepticism about Mr. Bush’s foreign policy is no secret.

Also a critic of the war in Iraq, Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel is likely to request more details on the U.S. exit strategy as the White House prepares to ask for $70 billion more for U.S. troops in Iraq.

Republican Sens. George Voinovich of Ohio and Lamar Alexander of Tennessee also have shown a willingness to break with their party.

“If you go back 25 years when I first came here, the Republican and Democratic Party were both very divided and you had sizable amount of liberal Republicans,” Ritchie said. “Now ... there are very few [moderates] left, with Bob Graham retiring on the Democratic side and the shrinkage of moderate Republicans.”

But Ritchie adds that less moderates does not necessarily mean less power.

“Mavericks in the Senate have always been able to make the party focus on their needs,” he said. “When Reagan was president, even though the Republicans had a majority similar to the majority they have now, there was something called a gang of five, or a gang of six, moderate Republicans who defected on environmental issues.”


By David Paul Kuhn
©MMIV, CBS Broadcasting Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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