Dan Rather's Convention Journal
CBS News Anchor Dan Rather offers personal insight and observations from the Republican National Convention.
OPTIMISIM CRESTING
A new tide of optimism inside the Bush-Cheney campaign, among delegates and with big-money contributors is evident inside the convention hall today and all around the town.
The tide began roughly a week to ten days ago when it became obvious to even early doubters that the "Swift Boat" ad attack against Senator Kerry was damaging him—badly, at least in the short run.
With various polls now confirming that Kerry is losing momentum and Bush gaining some, the Republican leadership as well as the rank-and-file is smiling, winking and slapping high-fives.
Yes, they know there is still a long way to go but whereas a month ago they were nervous and worried about how poll trends seemed to be developing now they are relieved and convinced they are headed into the Fall with a lead and momentum. If not "Big Mo" then at least some close kin of his.
To have such optimism cresting just as the convention starts is a campaign manager and convention script writer's dream.
IN THE OTHER CORNER
Among Democrats, high and low, there is considerable grumbling about how and why all this was, in the words of one Kerry consultant, "allowed to get this far".
The following are typical of comments from Democrats today: "There's Bush out there again today (in West Virginia) on the attack. Where are Kerry's attacks?"
"Our best hope now is that Kerry does well, very well, in the debates. They look like the next chance to change momentum around—maybe the only chance"
"Kerry and his staff significantly underestimated the "Swift Boat" negative campaign assault. Then they fumbled the response. It was too slow and not very effective even after it got started."
Fair to say that while the very top of the Kerry campaign is urging a "no need to panic, it's still early" attitude, they are nonetheless concerned.
Having digested all of this, you may want to keep in mind a well-worn reporter's reminder that "overnight is a long time in politics; a week is forever." And we're still dealing with an election that isn't until November.
TALK AROUND THE GARDEN:
Not much of it, really. Only a few people besides workmen inside the hall. Among the few who were there, the most popular topic of conversation was whether President Bush might surprise and announce during the convention that Vice President Cheney would not be running with him this year.
This rumor has swirled around a bit from time to time throughout the year, the chatter being that Mr. Bush would prefer to run with Sen. John McCain – or maybe Rudy Giuliani – and will sooner or later find a way to do it.
No one can be found inside the Bush-Cheney campaign who does anything but scoff at this. That, of course, doesn't keep people from musing about it and some were today, but none of them were anywhere near in a position to know anything.
They were just shooting the bull.
WHADDA BOUT A 'BOUNCE'
A quick, strictly unofficial and unscientific survey of a few widely experienced political pros today has them guessing that President Bush's post-convention "bounce" in the polls will range from six to ten points.
Keep in mind that these are all political campaign managers and consultants from around the country. Six in all; three Democrats, three Republicans.
If – and I underscore the word – if this were to happen it would be a major "bounce" by anyone's standards.
In contrast, professional political pollsters – people who make their livings strictly through polling – generally have much more conservative guesses. They range from a one- or two-point bounce to what one of the nation's best-known pollsters said: "Even which is to say no bounce… and possibly a slight minus, like minus one."
All of the people your reporter talked to today – party pros and the independent pollsters – were told they would not be quoted by name. None believed that the Bush-Cheney ticket would come out of the convention trailing the Kerry-Edwards campaign. The consensus is that Bush-Cheney leads nationally now by about 3 points and that even if they don't get much if any convention "bounce" they still will go into early September with some kind of lead.
You may want to note that Vice President Al Gore got a post-convention bounce of some 10 points in 2000. Bush's 2000 bounce after his convention was 4 points.
Kerry this year got zero bounce. Bush and his people are clearly hoping for better but they won't be stunned or surprised, and certainly not panicked if it isn't.
Both sides are convinced that independent and swing voters in a few key states are likely to prove the winning margin, one way or the other, this year. The most often mentioned among those states – the ones considered to be absolutely key – are Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Florida and Missouri rank just behind on the list.
One very high Kerry adviser told your reporter today, "I'm still convinced the whole election may very well come down to Ohio." He acknowledged that Kerry has "slipped a bit in our polling" in Ohio the past few weeks, but said Kerry and his staff still believe "Ohio is highly winnable for us." He added, "But we need to work harder, smarter, better there."
In Missouri, another key state on many people's list, the Kerry man said, "our numbers have been slipping there. Whether we can be turned around or not we're trying to figure out."
Both the Kerry and Bush campaigns appear to be jittery about Florida. No one on either side seems to know how it is trending, although fair to say the Bush people sound a little more confident about it than Kerry's team.
One influential Kerry campaign adviser reminded a reporter today that, "The president's brother is governor of Florida and Karl Rove is a longtime expert on that state. That puts us at a disadvantage but we're still organizing and fighting hard there."
OUTSIDE THE HALL
So far so good:
Top Law enforcement officials are please and relieved that Sunday's protests against President Bush and his policies went off with as little trouble as they did.
A "we're not out of the woods yet, not by a long way" attitude prevails, however, and there will be no slacking off on security. — Of greatest concern by far continues to be that terrorists may use demonstrations as "cover" to blend in and do something horrific. — Possible subway and other public transportation bombs are included in this general concern.
Protection costs for the convention range from an "official" $60 million estimate to others ranging to $100 million and possibly more.
(Most estimates of Sunday's major protest march centered on the figure 250,000. To many independent observers that seemed high, with 100 to 150 thousand deemed probably closer to the mark. Early crowd estimates for such demonstrations are notoriously high. Law enforcement authorities had quietly and unofficially increased their pre-weekend estimates Thursday from 200-250,000 to "maybe 300-400,000 or more". After the first wave of crowd size guessing passed, march organizers insisted the total crowd was about 500,000. One police source is quoted by the New York Times as saying unofficially that he thought the 500,000 figure might be about right. The New York City Police Department, as a general practice, does not announce any official crowd estimates, and has not in this case.)
HARDEST WORKING REPUBLICAN
Arizona Senator John McCain is said to have a schedule that has him up in the morning at 4:30 a.m. and working thought until about 1 a.m. the following morning. — From all available evidence, no Republican here will shake as many hands, attend as many gatherings or appear in as many radio and television programs as McCain.
Justified or not, most journalists and pols take this as further evidence McCain is running hard now for the Republican Presidential Nomination in 2008.
(McCain and every other upper-tier Republican one can find all continue to flatly, absolutely deny that there is anything to continual low-level rumors that President Bush may have some secret plan to dump Cheney for McCain. — "Complete rubbish" is the usual response.)
Copyright 2009 CBS. All rights reserved. OPTIMISIM CRESTING
A new tide of optimism inside the Bush-Cheney campaign, among delegates and with big-money contributors is evident inside the convention hall today and all around the town.
The tide began roughly a week to ten days ago when it became obvious to even early doubters that the "Swift Boat" ad attack against Senator Kerry was damaging him—badly, at least in the short run.
With various polls now confirming that Kerry is losing momentum and Bush gaining some, the Republican leadership as well as the rank-and-file is smiling, winking and slapping high-fives.
Yes, they know there is still a long way to go but whereas a month ago they were nervous and worried about how poll trends seemed to be developing now they are relieved and convinced they are headed into the Fall with a lead and momentum. If not "Big Mo" then at least some close kin of his.
To have such optimism cresting just as the convention starts is a campaign manager and convention script writer's dream.
IN THE OTHER CORNER
Among Democrats, high and low, there is considerable grumbling about how and why all this was, in the words of one Kerry consultant, "allowed to get this far".
The following are typical of comments from Democrats today: "There's Bush out there again today (in West Virginia) on the attack. Where are Kerry's attacks?"
"Our best hope now is that Kerry does well, very well, in the debates. They look like the next chance to change momentum around—maybe the only chance"
"Kerry and his staff significantly underestimated the "Swift Boat" negative campaign assault. Then they fumbled the response. It was too slow and not very effective even after it got started."
Fair to say that while the very top of the Kerry campaign is urging a "no need to panic, it's still early" attitude, they are nonetheless concerned.
Having digested all of this, you may want to keep in mind a well-worn reporter's reminder that "overnight is a long time in politics; a week is forever." And we're still dealing with an election that isn't until November.
TALK AROUND THE GARDEN:
Not much of it, really. Only a few people besides workmen inside the hall. Among the few who were there, the most popular topic of conversation was whether President Bush might surprise and announce during the convention that Vice President Cheney would not be running with him this year.
This rumor has swirled around a bit from time to time throughout the year, the chatter being that Mr. Bush would prefer to run with Sen. John McCain – or maybe Rudy Giuliani – and will sooner or later find a way to do it.
No one can be found inside the Bush-Cheney campaign who does anything but scoff at this. That, of course, doesn't keep people from musing about it and some were today, but none of them were anywhere near in a position to know anything.
They were just shooting the bull.
WHADDA BOUT A 'BOUNCE'
A quick, strictly unofficial and unscientific survey of a few widely experienced political pros today has them guessing that President Bush's post-convention "bounce" in the polls will range from six to ten points.
Keep in mind that these are all political campaign managers and consultants from around the country. Six in all; three Democrats, three Republicans.
If – and I underscore the word – if this were to happen it would be a major "bounce" by anyone's standards.
In contrast, professional political pollsters – people who make their livings strictly through polling – generally have much more conservative guesses. They range from a one- or two-point bounce to what one of the nation's best-known pollsters said: "Even which is to say no bounce… and possibly a slight minus, like minus one."
All of the people your reporter talked to today – party pros and the independent pollsters – were told they would not be quoted by name. None believed that the Bush-Cheney ticket would come out of the convention trailing the Kerry-Edwards campaign. The consensus is that Bush-Cheney leads nationally now by about 3 points and that even if they don't get much if any convention "bounce" they still will go into early September with some kind of lead.
You may want to note that Vice President Al Gore got a post-convention bounce of some 10 points in 2000. Bush's 2000 bounce after his convention was 4 points.
Kerry this year got zero bounce. Bush and his people are clearly hoping for better but they won't be stunned or surprised, and certainly not panicked if it isn't.
Both sides are convinced that independent and swing voters in a few key states are likely to prove the winning margin, one way or the other, this year. The most often mentioned among those states – the ones considered to be absolutely key – are Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Florida and Missouri rank just behind on the list.
One very high Kerry adviser told your reporter today, "I'm still convinced the whole election may very well come down to Ohio." He acknowledged that Kerry has "slipped a bit in our polling" in Ohio the past few weeks, but said Kerry and his staff still believe "Ohio is highly winnable for us." He added, "But we need to work harder, smarter, better there."
In Missouri, another key state on many people's list, the Kerry man said, "our numbers have been slipping there. Whether we can be turned around or not we're trying to figure out."
Both the Kerry and Bush campaigns appear to be jittery about Florida. No one on either side seems to know how it is trending, although fair to say the Bush people sound a little more confident about it than Kerry's team.
One influential Kerry campaign adviser reminded a reporter today that, "The president's brother is governor of Florida and Karl Rove is a longtime expert on that state. That puts us at a disadvantage but we're still organizing and fighting hard there."
OUTSIDE THE HALL
So far so good:
Top Law enforcement officials are please and relieved that Sunday's protests against President Bush and his policies went off with as little trouble as they did.
A "we're not out of the woods yet, not by a long way" attitude prevails, however, and there will be no slacking off on security. — Of greatest concern by far continues to be that terrorists may use demonstrations as "cover" to blend in and do something horrific. — Possible subway and other public transportation bombs are included in this general concern.
Protection costs for the convention range from an "official" $60 million estimate to others ranging to $100 million and possibly more.
(Most estimates of Sunday's major protest march centered on the figure 250,000. To many independent observers that seemed high, with 100 to 150 thousand deemed probably closer to the mark. Early crowd estimates for such demonstrations are notoriously high. Law enforcement authorities had quietly and unofficially increased their pre-weekend estimates Thursday from 200-250,000 to "maybe 300-400,000 or more". After the first wave of crowd size guessing passed, march organizers insisted the total crowd was about 500,000. One police source is quoted by the New York Times as saying unofficially that he thought the 500,000 figure might be about right. The New York City Police Department, as a general practice, does not announce any official crowd estimates, and has not in this case.)
HARDEST WORKING REPUBLICAN
Arizona Senator John McCain is said to have a schedule that has him up in the morning at 4:30 a.m. and working thought until about 1 a.m. the following morning. — From all available evidence, no Republican here will shake as many hands, attend as many gatherings or appear in as many radio and television programs as McCain.
Justified or not, most journalists and pols take this as further evidence McCain is running hard now for the Republican Presidential Nomination in 2008.
(McCain and every other upper-tier Republican one can find all continue to flatly, absolutely deny that there is anything to continual low-level rumors that President Bush may have some secret plan to dump Cheney for McCain. — "Complete rubbish" is the usual response.)
