Nuclear Politics: Iran & N. Korea

(CBS)  Tom Fenton, in his fourth decade with CBS News, has been the network's Senior European Correspondent since 1979. He comments on international events from his "Listening Post" in London, and other parts of the world as well.

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Another crisis over weapons of mass destruction is brewing in the Greater Middle East, and this time there seems to be little the United States can do about it.

In defiance of the United States, the United Nations and the European governments that think they can sweet talk it into compliance, Iran has decided to resume its program for producing highly enriched uranium - a precursor to producing an atomic bomb. It is manufacturing parts for its high-speed centrifuges, and preparing uranium feedstock for them, in spite of having promised to stop.

It is also about to start building a heavy water reactor that would be too small for producing useful amounts of electricity but very useful for producing plutonium - the other route to making an atomic bomb.

In addition, Iran is suspected of hiding sites where other nuclear work is being done. As we now know, it has been deceiving the International Atomic Energy Agency for almost two decades.

Iran still insists its intentions are peaceful and that its nuclear program is for making electricity, but no one really believes that. The problem is that no one is prepared to do much about it.

The United States and the countries of the European Union produced a joint statement at their June 26th summit in Ireland, which "expressed united determination to see the proliferation implications of Iran's nuclear program resolved." President Bush and his European partners said they were "disturbed" by Iran's decision. There was no mention of any action, and there is not likely to be any.

The last thing President Bush needs four months from an election is another full-blown crisis in the Greater Middle East. And this one would be right next door to Iraq.

Why Iran has chosen this moment to cause trouble is not clear, but there are several possible motives.

The Bush Administration's decision to topple Saddam Hussein opened the door to improved relations with America's old enemy, Iran. Iran was delighted to see its other old enemy, Iraq, rendered harmless. It not only gave America its acquiescence to the war next door. It also reportedly agreed to help in other ways, such as ignoring minor incursions or over-flights by coalition forces and offering to help recover pilots that might be shot down.

Iran assumed that the United States would leave a new Iraqi government in the hands of the country's Shiite majority, which would become a natural ally of Shiite Iran. Iran would then end up as the major player in the Persian Gulf.

It has not worked out that way. It now seems that members of Saddam's old Baathist party will play leading roles in Baghdad. The unspoken deal with America (if that's what it was) has collapsed, and Iran is angry. Angry enough, perhaps, to flaunt its nuclear ambitions before the world. That's one explanation for Iran's risky behavior.

Another is that Iran has been watching the way America has been dealing with North Korea - the other member of the triple "Axis of Evil," and a country that not only has an illicit nuclear weapons program but probably already has a few bombs. America's policy with North Korea is to try to placate it while making occasional threats.

We all know how well that has worked. The talks in Beijing between the United States and four other nations with North Korea have just been suspended without results. North Korea denies having a nuclear weapons program, but at the same time has been using it as a threat to win concessions from the United States. North Korea's secret nukes are, as former President Clinton once said in private, "the only cash crop they have."

What North Korea's dictator wants from America are aid and a guarantee that he will not be toppled.

What Iran wants is more influence in Iraq. And in the long run, it probably wants nuclear weapons as its own guarantee of survival in a part of the world where nearby neighbors - Pakistan and India - already have them.

Complicating these crises are the apparent weaknesses of American intelligence.

Washington is playing a high stakes game with Iran. In order to play safe, it needs a clear picture of Iran's nuclear capabilities and a correct assessment of its intentions. The President needs intelligence estimates he can rely on.

The CIA seems to have been wrong about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction. The President must hope it has better information on Iran.


By Tom Fenton By Tom Fenton