Why Democrats Love Kerry

Electability And Experience Key To Mass. Senator's Success

(CBS)  CBS News Political Consultant Monika L. McDermott explains John Kerry's impressive performance in Democratic primaries nationwide.

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Mass. Sen. John Kerry has all but locked up the Democratic nomination, thanks primarily to the strength of his resume.

According to CBS News exit polls, voters in the primaries this year, including those participating in the nine Super Tuesday primaries, have decided on the basis of his record and his campaign performance that he is the candidate best able to challenge George W. Bush in November, as well as the candidate most qualified to govern the nation during times of economic and national insecurity.

Throughout the primary season, voters have expressed a preference for electability and experience over passion and empathy, allowing Kerry to easily outpace two of his main competitors, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean and North Carolina Senator John Edwards respectively.

Beating Bush

Democrats are angry with President Bush and his administration, and they want him out of office. Throughout the primary season, Kerry has benefited from this anger, as he has been consistently perceived as the candidate most likely to beat the incumbent president.

Among Super Tuesday voters, 47 percent described themselves as angry with the current administration, and another 36 percent called themselves dissatisfied. And among these angry voters, nearly half said that beating Mr. Bush was more important to their decision than issues were.

Overall, Kerry’s supporters have been pointing to his perceived electability as the top reason for supporting him. Forty-five percent of his voters on Tuesday said that his ability to beat Mr. Bush was the most important quality in their choice.

His experience, while mentioned less frequently – 14 percent of his voters point to his record as the reason for supporting him – was also important to voters, and may even have driven his image as a strong general election candidate. Among all voters looking for a candidate with the right experience, Kerry received 81 percent of the vote.

While Kerry was once seen as a long shot for the nomination, in the end his resume proved more important to voters than Dean’s passion, or Edwards’ empathy. Both Dean and Edwards were believed more able to connect with voters than Kerry was – and Kerry was diagnosed with a “likeability” problem.

But despite this conventional wisdom, voters responded positively to Kerry’s performance on the campaign trail. Kerry won over voters with his debate performances in particular. Thirty percent of Super Tuesday voters said the recent debates were very important in their decision making, and among these voters, Kerry performed five points better than he did overall, besting Edwards by 35 points.

Being President

The focus on Kerry’s electability throughout the primary process may have obscured the fact that Democratic primary voters also believe Kerry is the candidate most qualified to lead the country, especially given current national conditions.

The war in Iraq, and Democratic voters’ dissatisfaction with it, has played a role in Kerry’s victory as he has been viewed as the best candidate to handle matters of national security. On Super Tuesday, when asked whom they trusted more to handle matters of national security, voters chose Kerry over Edwards. Forty-nine percent said they trusted both candidates on the issue, but another 29 percent said they trusted only Kerry, and not Edwards (only 8 percent said they trusted Edwards but not Kerry). In addition, in the primaries preceding Tuesday’s, Kerry consistently outperformed all rivals among voters who disapproved of Mr. Bush’s decision to go to war with Iraq.

Kerry has also performed well on the issue of the economy, despite it being the central focus of the Edwards campaign. In races before Tuesday, Kerry performed strongly among voters with a negative view of the national economy. In addition, his recent focus on the issues of trade and jobs appears to have paid off.

Prior to Super Tuesday, Edwards, even while losing overall, had polled evenly with Kerry among voters citing the economy as the top issue in their vote. But on Super Tuesday, Kerry performed nearly as well among voters concerned about the economy as he did overall, besting Edwards by 26 points among those citing the economy as their top issue. In addition, Kerry beat Edwards by 25 points among anti-trade voters.

Voters also feel that Kerry is the candidate most likely to stand up to the special interests as president. Forty-three percent of Tuesday’s primary voters said that both candidates would stand up to special interests, but another 23 percent said they thought Kerry would, but Edwards would not, compared to 15 percent who said Edwards would, but Kerry would not.

Looking Ahead

Kerry’s performance so far in the primaries bodes well for his likely general election candidacy for several reasons. Democrats throughout the primaries have expressed satisfaction with the notion of Kerry as their standard bearer, and he has performed strongest among base Democratic groups whose turnout in the general election could be crucial to a Democratic victory. In addition, Kerry has performed well among swing voter groups targeted by Republicans.

All indications are that Democrats will be fully supportive of Kerry’s candidacy. Super Tuesday’s voters, like voters in previous contests, expressed satisfaction at the idea of Kerry as the Democratic nominee.

Seventy-seven percent of voters in the nine Super Tuesday primary states said they would be satisfied with Kerry as the nominee, including 33 percent who said they would be satisfied only with Kerry and not Edwards. In addition, some of Kerry’s strongest support came from the base of the party. Kerry won 61 percent of African-American votes in the Super Tuesday primary states, 60 percent of union households, and 60 percent of self-described liberals.

At the same time, Kerry’s support is not limited to Democratic base voters. While Edwards performed best among moderates and conservatives in the primaries, Kerry also showed some strength among groups that typically contribute to the general election swing vote. For example, Kerry won 65 percent of the Hispanic vote on Tuesday, as well as 62 percent of the vote of Catholics. Republicans have made moves to target both of these groups in November.

The CBS News exit polls were conducted by Edison / Mitofsky for the National Election Pool. Results are based on 12,886 voters leaving the polls in nine states (California, Connecticut, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont), and have an overall margin of sampling error of + 2 percentage points.

Monika L. McDermott is assistant professor of political science at the University of Connecticut, where she teaches and conducts research on voting behavior and public opinion. Before joining the University of Connecticut, McDermott worked in election polling for CBS News and the Los Angeles Times. She holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of California, Los Angeles.