Happy New Year? We'll See ...
Dotty Lynch is the Senior Political Editor for CBS News. E-mail your questions and comments to Political Points
The conventional political wisdom at the end of 2003 is threefold: that Howard Dean will be the Democratic nominee, that he is the weakest candidate the Democrats could nominate against President Bush and that with the capture of Saddam Hussein and some good economic indicators, no one will be able to beat Mr. Bush.
I tend to fall in lock step with the third prediction if the economy continues to rebound. Incumbent presidents who are unchallenged in their own party and have a good economic record are hard to beat. But I'm not at all sure that Dean is unstoppable for the nomination. He has dominated the presidential political news and the Democratic debates for a year, and is still running only a few points ahead of Dick Gephardt in Iowa.
Last week's CBS News poll showed him with just 16 percent of the Democratic vote nationwide and he's bunched with the pack in most of the Feb. 3 states. Only in New Hampshire does he have a solid lead.
If John Kerry were holding that lead, the pundits would be writing it off, saying of course he's going to win New Hampshire, it's right next door to Massachusetts. Has anyone noticed where Vermont is located?
On the other hand, should Dean will the nomination, it says volumes about his skill as a politician and his campaign's understanding of how to play the game. Dean is the favorite pick of the Democratic establishment, but he is not by any means their guy.
His endorsements to date include Al Gore, a couple of big unions and 28 members of the House, half of whom are minorities. The only members of the Senate backing him are the two from his home state of Vermont.
Dean's strength comes from the grassroots and from his message which is about the voters, not about himself. His blunt style — which sometimes gets him in trouble — has appealed to voters weary of slick spin and canned talking points.
He has the ability to excite, energize and empower voters, he is willing to take risks and his campaign has proved over and over that it can make lemonade out of lemons. Last week, when faced with a barrage of negative ads, instead of whining, the Dean folks put one of the ads on their Web site and raised another $500,000.
My former colleague Eric Engberg used to say ironically that journalism is the only profession where mistakes are rewarded. When reporters set expectations and are proven wrong, their "punishment" is a huge upset and even bigger story. What makes politics fun are the surprises — and almost always the conventional wisdom is turned on its head. Here are a few examples of predictions few would have made on January 1, 2003:
1. Dean's Joe Trippi will become the campaign genius of the year; Kerry's Jim Jordan will be looking for work.
2. Arnold Schwarzenegger will become governor of California
3. Bill Bennett and Rush Limbaugh will be dropped from the list of the truly virtuous.
4. The Congress will pass a prescription drug bill.
5. The Supreme Court will uphold McCain-Feingold.
6. Foreign policy will dominate the Democratic presidential campaign.
7. No weapons of mass destruction will be found in Iraq, and it won't matter.
8. Dennis Kucinich will trump Ted Koppel on the high road of politics.
9. John Kerry and Wesley Clark will reveal that their fathers were Jewish.
10. Strom Thurmond's mixed-race daughter will go on 60 Minutes II and tell all.
As we say goodbye to 2003, the only sure thing is that Campaign 2004 will be filled with shock and awe. And, for us in the political punditry racket, that's the only thing that's really predictable.
May your new year be filled with joyous surprises. Happy New Year.
Copyright 2007 CBS. All rights reserved. The conventional political wisdom at the end of 2003 is threefold: that Howard Dean will be the Democratic nominee, that he is the weakest candidate the Democrats could nominate against President Bush and that with the capture of Saddam Hussein and some good economic indicators, no one will be able to beat Mr. Bush.
I tend to fall in lock step with the third prediction if the economy continues to rebound. Incumbent presidents who are unchallenged in their own party and have a good economic record are hard to beat. But I'm not at all sure that Dean is unstoppable for the nomination. He has dominated the presidential political news and the Democratic debates for a year, and is still running only a few points ahead of Dick Gephardt in Iowa.
Last week's CBS News poll showed him with just 16 percent of the Democratic vote nationwide and he's bunched with the pack in most of the Feb. 3 states. Only in New Hampshire does he have a solid lead.
If John Kerry were holding that lead, the pundits would be writing it off, saying of course he's going to win New Hampshire, it's right next door to Massachusetts. Has anyone noticed where Vermont is located?
On the other hand, should Dean will the nomination, it says volumes about his skill as a politician and his campaign's understanding of how to play the game. Dean is the favorite pick of the Democratic establishment, but he is not by any means their guy.
His endorsements to date include Al Gore, a couple of big unions and 28 members of the House, half of whom are minorities. The only members of the Senate backing him are the two from his home state of Vermont.
Dean's strength comes from the grassroots and from his message which is about the voters, not about himself. His blunt style — which sometimes gets him in trouble — has appealed to voters weary of slick spin and canned talking points.
He has the ability to excite, energize and empower voters, he is willing to take risks and his campaign has proved over and over that it can make lemonade out of lemons. Last week, when faced with a barrage of negative ads, instead of whining, the Dean folks put one of the ads on their Web site and raised another $500,000.
My former colleague Eric Engberg used to say ironically that journalism is the only profession where mistakes are rewarded. When reporters set expectations and are proven wrong, their "punishment" is a huge upset and even bigger story. What makes politics fun are the surprises — and almost always the conventional wisdom is turned on its head. Here are a few examples of predictions few would have made on January 1, 2003:
1. Dean's Joe Trippi will become the campaign genius of the year; Kerry's Jim Jordan will be looking for work.
2. Arnold Schwarzenegger will become governor of California
3. Bill Bennett and Rush Limbaugh will be dropped from the list of the truly virtuous.
4. The Congress will pass a prescription drug bill.
5. The Supreme Court will uphold McCain-Feingold.
6. Foreign policy will dominate the Democratic presidential campaign.
7. No weapons of mass destruction will be found in Iraq, and it won't matter.
8. Dennis Kucinich will trump Ted Koppel on the high road of politics.
9. John Kerry and Wesley Clark will reveal that their fathers were Jewish.
10. Strom Thurmond's mixed-race daughter will go on 60 Minutes II and tell all.
As we say goodbye to 2003, the only sure thing is that Campaign 2004 will be filled with shock and awe. And, for us in the political punditry racket, that's the only thing that's really predictable.
May your new year be filled with joyous surprises. Happy New Year.
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