Bush Ratings Falling To Earth

Slip In President's Numbers Gives Hope To Democrats

(AP)  After more than seven months of soaring poll numbers, President Bush's standing with the public is gradually returning to more normal levels.

If that trend continues, Democrats are likely to grow more bold about challenging the Bush administration on policy. Republicans may have to learn to live without the updraft that has raised the party's standing for months because of a president with job approval in the 80 percent range.

The Republican National Committee already has warned the party faithful to soften the effect.

Matthew Dowd, pollster for the RNC, sent a memo out to fellow Republicans reminding them the president's poll numbers could continue to slip. The president's job approval was at 90 percent soon after Sept. 11 but has slipped recently to the mid-70s.

Dowd predicted the president's "approval rating should return to a new normal" — possibly in the 60s — by the end of July if the historical pattern proves true, which is hardly certain given that the attacks were different from anything in U.S. history.

GOP consultant Scott Reed said Dowd's memo was the political equivalent of preparing for "a soft landing."

Democrats are relieved at the prospect of campaigning against the party of a president with more typical levels of public support. But they cannot be sure how far he will slip and they cannot count on a replay of his father's collapse in 1991.

"George Bush has not abolished the laws of political gravity," said Mark Mellman, a pollster for the Democratic National Committee. "What goes up, does come down."

Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said "it will be kind of liberating" once Mr. Bush's approval rating drops.

"People won't think he's invincible, they'll understand he's only a mere mortal," she said. `

RNC spokesman Jim Dyke said the memo was intended to let people know in advance what the party expects will happen.

"By a natural gravity, the president's poll numbers are going to come down," Dyke said, adding people will try to attribute all kinds of reasons to the slippage. The polls are likely to slip further as more Democrats return to the base as the political debate over domestic policies grows more intense. More than half of Democrats approved of Bush's job approval in a recent Pew poll, a number likely to drop.

The pre-emptive warning was smart politics, said political analyst Thomas Mann of the Brookings Institution.

"It's part of the permanent campaign," Mann said. "It's partly a matter of meeting or exceeding expectations."

Mr. Bush's high poll ratings have reduced criticism of him, Mann said. "I think it helped make Democrats more cautious about giving more voice to differences."

But in Florida last weekend, potential Democratic candidates for president were openly critical of Bush administration policies, both domestic and in the Middle East.

The Democratic reticence to speak out on differences has more to do with the war than the president's popularity, said Bruce Reed, president of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council.

Democrats cannot count on the kind of free fall in the polls experienced by Mr. Bush's father throughout 1991.

Former President Bush's job approval was in the low 80s through the Persian Gulf War and gradually slipped throughout the year. Eight months later, at the beginning of September, he slipped below 70 percent and continued to slip until his job approval was at 46 percent in early January, with an equal number disapproving.

But there are some very significant differences between the 1991 and 2002.

By September 2001, Americans by almost a 2-to-1 margin disapproved of the elder Mr. Bush's handling of the economy — the most important issue that year. People in 2002 approve of President Bush's handling of the economy by a 2-1 margin and the war on terrorism ranks in the polls as a top issue along with the economy.

Any slippage in the polls will make Democrats "much more willing to come after" the president, Democratic consultant Paul Begala said.