Midterm Markers

Commentary By CBS News Senior Political Editor Dotty Lynch

(CBS)  In her latest Political Points commentary, CBS News Senior Political Editor Dotty Lynch takes a look at how some top Washington operatives are preparing for next year's midterm elections.

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Last Thursday, when most of America was huddled around the TV watching Osama bin Laden take credit for the September 11 attacks, a group of political reporters in Washington was instead huddled around a conference table at the Democratic Leadership Conference poring over a new poll by Clinton (both him and her) pollster Mark Penn.

This was the latest in a series of presentations last week by major political players who were setting the stage for next year's debate. On Tuesday, Bush strategist Karl Rove appeared before the American Enterprise Institute/Brookings Institute Transition in Government forum proclaiming a seamless strategy from campaign to White House. On Wednesday, former Clinton and DLC pollster Stan Greenberg, along with partners James Carville and Bob Shrum in a firm called Democracy Corps, released yet another poll suggesting a different strategic plan for the Democrats.

The final weeks of this very odd year saw these operatives setting down markers as the planning for the 2002 midterm elections begins in earnest. Public and private polls continued to show President Bush with sky-high ratings on his handling of his job and the war against terrorism. But pollster Penn said he thinks that by next summer Mr. Bush's ratings will return to normal levels, although the idea that Democrats were trying to sell before 9/11 – namely "that Bush was an incompetent" – will probably not wash.

All the polls, and the results of the November 2001 gubernatorial elections, however, show that Bush's ratings don't necessarily translate into gains for Republican candidates for Congress or governor. Rove agreed that voters don't always reward presidents for past actions – the ghost of "Bush 41" (his father) is much on the mind of the current White House occupant – and said that prior to September 11 there was an active planning group at the White House looking at new issues.

"Voters don't vote retrospectively," Rove conceded, and said that his task is to "provoke thinking about what's next." He suggested that there may be some new issues in the "roll-out to the State of the Union address."

The crux of the disagreement among the three operatives surrounds the questions of tax cuts and the role of government. Rove is unabashed in his defense of the Bush tax cuts. He claims that Bush campaigned on these cuts with full awareness that the economy would cool off, and it is almost a religious belief that campaign promises must become White House policy. He is equally wary of any suggestion that September 11 changed voters' feelings about big government. Rove says, "there is a role for government," but it's mainly as a facilitator. Government, he says, could ever do what volunteer organizations like the Red Cross or the churches did following the attacks.

The two Democratic strategy groups take differing positions from Rove – and from each other. The more liberal/activist/populist approach advocated by Greenberg, Shrum and Carville urges Democrats to aggressively fight the tax cuts and support increased spending on Social Security and social programs.

"Democratic economic programs get a strong audience with the voters – ready-to-go infrastructure projects to create jobs and rebuild, delaying the tax cut for the top one percent to fund Social Security, unemployment benefits and Cobra for the newly unemployed, and tax incentives to encourage immediate business investments," reads a report they issued on November 13, and these views are confirmed by the new poll. These strategists also advocate that Democrats "put the spotlight on special interests" who may be acting opportunistically to win tax breaks for themselves while ordinary citizens are thinking about the whole country.

Penn, the centrist DLC pollster, says emphatically that it's a mistake for the Democrats to fight the tax cuts. He believes that the smart strategy is to tar Bush with the bad economy, especially the looming deficits, but not offer a solution. The DLC is concerned that the image of the Democratic Party has regressed in the past year to one of compassion alone and that the "tough issues" – crime, welfare reform and fiscal discipline – have faded as their White House bully-pulpit has been lost.

High taxes, the specter of Walter Mondale, terrifies these "new Democrats" and they argue strongly for the rhetoric of economic growth rather than a populist "soak the rich" rallying cry. They are also concerned that Democrats will go too far in embracing civil liberties.

"There is no constituency for terrorism," says Penn, and Democrats must "not take the bait" of attacking military tribunals. Republicans have regained the edge on security issues and Democrats must show toughness, not necessarily to "win" the issue but to "neutralize it."

It's been a quiet time for politics. The off year is typically slow, but as Karl Rove has discovered, when the spotlight shifts, it can be lonely on the periphery. But these strategists (and the political reporters who cover them) have been busy little beavers operating in the shadows. The debate which began to get definition this month will be played out in living color as the midterm elections of 2002 get up and running.