A Quiet Election Season? Think Again

Commentary By CBS News Senior Political Editor Dotty Lynch

(CBS)  In her latest Political Points commentary, CBS News Senior Political Editor Dotty Lynch takes a look at some of the fall political season's biggest races.

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Most of the political headlines this week have been about candidates dropping in and out of races for Senate and governor next year – Jesse Helms and Phil Gramm out, Janet Reno in and Elizabeth Dole getting close. But 2001 is a hotbed of political activity. Over 450 cities will elect new mayors, New Jersey and Virginia have gubernatorial races and there are five special congressional elections to fill vacancies created by resignations or deaths.

Politicians and pundits will try to read major national implications into the results of these races. But, in fact, most are very local, turning on specific local issues and dependent on unique constituencies. Many, however, provide a lot of color, mounds of nitty-gritty dirt and some wonderful political stories.

On Tuesday, September 11 there are mayoral races in New York City and Detroit and a special election in Boston to fill the seat of the late Rep. Joe Moakley. The Democratic primary in New York City is the scene of the usual tangle of ethnic politics and liberals-eat-their-young shenanigans. The race to lead the post-Giuliani era has produced a Republican primary as well, with billionaire Michael Bloomberg facing ex-Democratic Congressman Herman Badillo.

In the Democratic contest, former Nader raider and current Public Advocate Mark Green has been endorsed by the New York Times, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Warren Beatty. Green had been leading rather comfortably in the polls until this week, when there was a sudden surge for Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer, who would be the city's first Puerto Rican mayor. Ferrer has been endorsed by Rep. Charlie Rangel (whose Harlem district now includes more Latinos than blacks), former Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, former Rep. Geraldine Ferraro and, perhaps most importantly, the polarizing Rev Al Sharpton. Ferrer has overtly courted black and Latino voters, running on a slogan of being for "the other New York."

Two polls this week showed Ferrer and Green tied, each with about 30 percent of the primary vote, virtually guaranteeing that neither will get the 40 percent needed to avoid a September 25 runoff. Green has started to attack Ferrer for his support from "racist" Sonny Carson, and the next two weeks are bound to bring out the worst in death-wish New York City liberals.

Whoever wins will likely face Republican Michael Bloomberg, who has already spent a record $20 million. But Bloomberg's money has not assured him of a free ride. The discovery of a 1990 booklet of 32 pages of Bloomberg's most outrageous quips ("Make the customer think he's getting laid when he's getting f------" apparently sets the tone) is getting a lot of play in the media.

In Boston, the fight for the House seat held since 1973 by JoMoakley appears to be coming down to a Democratic primary contest between State Senator Steven Lynch, a pro-life, anti-gun control, former iron worker who has been endorsed by the state AFL-CIO; and State Senator Cheryl Jacques, a pro-choice, pro-gun control, openly lesbian candidate who has received over $300,000 from Emily's List. Jacques has been endorsed by the Boston Globe, and NARAL and Emily's List have run independent ads on the "choice" issue, an eyebrow-raising strategy in this district which includes socially conservative south Boston.

A barrage of negative advertising has been run against Lynch for his views on abortion and guns, his failure to pay back taxes and student loans, and his free legal defense of 14 young white men from Southie accused of violating the civil rights of a Puerto Rican man. Lynch has countered the attacks with an ad touting his decision to give part of his liver to a brother-in-law with liver cancer. Last Friday he became ill on the trail from pains associated with that gift. The Boston Herald's Howie Carr has deemed this the "Angela's Ashes" campaign.

Polls this week suggest Lynch has maintained a good lead because of his strong base and blue-collar economics. There is no runoff in this primary and the winner is expected to face only token Republican opposition in November.

In Detroit, the race to succeed Mayor Denis Archer, who surprised people in April by announcing he would not run again, includes 21 candidates including the 31-year-old son of U.S. Rep. Carolyn Kilpatrick. State Senator Kwame Kilpatrick has waged an aggressive personal and ad campaign and is now running ahead of Gil Hill, the 69-year-old president of the Detroit City Council.

Kilpatrick has made some rookie mistakes – getting himself in trouble with the gay and lesbian community and calling Michigan the "Mississippi of the North." He has also come under intense scrutiny for prior financial issues and he took an odd two-day holiday to Las Vegas during the final week of the campaign. But he's moving in the polls because he seems to be offering a new vision for Detroit and a plan to achieve it.

Hill, in contrast, is stressing his experience and is being portrayed as the candidate of the status quo. The third candidate in most of the polls is Nicholas Hood, a well-respected but somewhat laid-back member of the City Council. Turnout is expected to be low but the race will heat up when the top two candidates face each other in November.

So, if you're hungry for some good old-fashioned politics you don't have to wait until next year. Just look outside your window and you'll probably see a lot of action.