Florida Again

Commentary By CBS News Senior Political Editor Dotty Lynch

(CBS)  In her latest Political Points commentary, CBS News Senior Political Editor Dotty Lynch handicaps next year's Florida governor's race.

---

It may be Dubya's birthday, but his little brother got the biggest gift.

On July 3, the president came through for Jeb and scaled back plans to drill for oil in the Gulf of Mexico off the Florida coast. Polls suggest that Jeb needed that present. His negative ratings were up to 40 percent in a recent Miami Herald poll and the Democrats are viewing the next year's Florida gubernatorial race as a "holy war" against Jeb to get revenge for their near-miss against his brother last November.

Jeb filed his re-election papers Friday; or more precisely, his papers were filed by Berthy De La Rosa-Aponte, a Hispanic mother of a disabled child, while he was celebrating with number 43 and number 41 at the family compound in Kennebunkport.

Six or seven Democrats have been eyeing the race for a while. State Sen. Daryl Jones and Tampa lawyer Bill McBride filed their papers earlier this week; and Rep Jim Davis, State House Minority Leader Lois Frankel, Tallahassee Mayor Scott Maddox and retiring U.S. Ambassador to Vietnam Pete Peterson are looking seriously at getting in. One candidate who was expected to run, Florida Attorney General Bob Butterworth, has decided to sit it out.

But a funny thing happened to the Democrats on their way to 2002. Former U.S. Attorney General Janet Reno surfaced in May and has been "testing the waters" ever since. She has been a constant presence on the South Florida circuit answering the same questions over and over about Elian Gonzales. She even appeared last month on WQBA, a Cuban-American talk-radio station. On Thursday, she had interviews with Miami disc jockey Gino Latino and MSNBC's Rick Sanchez. She recited her mantra about how she believes that if people hear the all the facts they will understand her actions. Then, awkwardly breaking from her stern demeanor, she reminds listeners that she strongly believed "that the little boy should be with his daddy."

The poll take in May for the Miami Herald shows her leading the pack of Democrats and trailing Jeb Bush in a general election by only 6 points, 49 percent to 43 percent. But Democrats are also looking at another poll, one done for Rep Jim Davis by Hickman-Brown Research Inc. which shows Reno's negative rating extremely high among general election voters. Only 35 percent rate her positively, while 41 percent are negative. Among Republicans she is rated 12 percent favorable and 65 percent unfavorable, while independents split almost evenly, 36 percent favorable to 33 percent unfavorable. As in the Herald poll, Reno comes in first in the primary, but 20 percent of Democrats say they wouldn't support her in the general election.

Reno is a very controversial figure. The liberal St. Petersburg Times warned in an editorial following the Florida Jefferson-JacksoDinner in June that "Reno has devastatingly high negatives. A crowded field and absence of a runoff also could favor a candidate who could attract a relatively small but intense group of Democratic core voters. But such a candidate might not have such broad appeal to defeat Bush in a general election." The paper called on Democratic Senators Bob Graham and Bill Nelson to help "narrow the primary field" and avoid a bloodbath. Others, including Florida Democratic consultant Joe Garcia, have started trying to get Bob Butterwoth to change his mind and get into the race. Reno has said she would not run against him.

Women's groups are also torn. State Rep. Lois Frankel, who was omnipresent during last year's contested presidential election, had hoped to win the support of groups like Emily's List, which could mean millions in campaign funds. Reno is a sentimental favorite among these groups, but they too are worried about her negative ratings and her liabilities – Clinton campaign finance scandal, Elian, Waco and her own health problems. Frankel has made the rounds in Washington and so far none of the groups have taken a position.

The Republicans sound sanguine. "She is a very polarizing figure, and she comes into the race with a lot of baggage," said Daryl Duwe, a spokesman for the Florida Republican Party. "Her negatives are so high that I am confident Governor Bush would defeat her."

Reno seems undaunted. Her friends say that when she sets her mind on something it is not easily changed and that this race intrigues her. She's convinced that through rational discourse, voters, even in the Cuban American community, will give her credit for making tough decisions.

As for her Parkinson's disease, she said that her hand shakes "and sometimes I speak to it," and that her "handwriting is lousy." But other than that, she says she's OK.

A Bush-Reno race in everyone's favorite state would be a political junkie's nirvana. Let's just hope we don't need another recount.