The Off Year

Commentary By CBS News Senior Political Editor Dotty Lynch

(CBS)  In her latest Political Points commentary, CBS News Senior Political Editor Dotty Lynch takes a look at the key "off-year" elections.

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On Thursday night, the final debate between the two candidates for mayor of Los Angeles took place in, of all places, the Museum of Tolerance. Democrats James Hahn, the L.A. city attorney, and Antonio Villaraigosa, speaker of the California Assembly, fired a series of shrill charges, each accusing the other of running a campaign of hypocrisy and smears.

On June 5, voters will choose between the two Democrats in a run-off election to succeed two-term Republican Mayor Richard Riordan. Los Angeles is now almost 50 percent Latino, and for a while it looked like Villaraigosa was poised to become the city' first Latino mayor.

But the rough and tumble of the campaign has featured a devastating ad by Hahn attacking Villaraigosa for writing a letter to President Clinton urging a pardon for convicted drug trafficker Carlos Vignali. The ad uses visuals of crack cocaine paraphernalia and moved Villaraigosa from a small lead to a deficit of six to 11 points.

"We had a couple of weeks of gooey-gooey, 'Oh wow, the first Latino mayor,'" a Hahn advisor said. "And then reality sunk in."

That reality has been Hahn's gaining the upper hand on the issues of crime and public safety against the more liberal former ACLU president. But Villaraigosa still has some intense supporters – about 22 percent of primary voters will be Latinos – who would like to make history, so locals believe that this is still a close contest.

Los Angeles is one of 462 cities holding mayoral elections this year. New York City, Detroit and Cleveland will also elect new mayors. In addition there are races for governor in two states, Virginia and New Jersey, and several special elections for House of Representatives.

The candidates for mayor in New York are having trouble topping the headlines made by outgoing Mayor Rudy Guiliani and the very public love triangle going on in Gracie Mansion. Leading in the polls is Democratic Public Advocate Mark Green, although though the primary is not until September 11.

While Democrats hope to take back the mayoralty in the heavily Democratic city, rich Republican businessman Michael Bloomberg is expected to wage a very expensive campaign.

Democratic National Chair Terry McAuliffe, already assured that Los Angeles will switch to his party, has been pushing 2001 as the year the Democrats begin a big comeback that will propel them into the 2002 elections, when 36 governorships and control of the Congress will be at stake.

In fact, the Democrats do have good chances in the two gubernatorial races this year. Neither of their nominees in New Jersey or Virginia have significant opposition in the primaries, while both states have fractious Republican contests.

In Virginia this weekend, 8,000 to 12,000 Republicans will trave to a state convention in Richmond to choose between Attorney General Mark Earley and Lieutenant Governor John Hager. Early is thought to have the lead and the support of most Christian conservatives, but Hager has tried to move to the right of Early, and it will likely come down to who gets their troops out. Wealthy businessman Mark Warner, unopposed for the Democratic nomination, has been waging a television campaign since May 4.

In New Jersey, there is another divisive Republican gubernatorial battle between neo-conservative darling, Jersey City Mayor Bret Schundler, and a more moderate Republican, former Congressman Bob Franks. Franks jumped into the race when acting Governor Donald DiFrancesco (who had taken over for Christie Todd Whitman when she resigned to head the EPA) suddenly dropped out.

Mainstream Republicans were aghast that Schundler, who has been attacking the Republican "clique" that runs Trenton, might have a clear shot at the nomination, so they drafted Franks into the race.

The winner of the June 26 primary will face Democratic candidate Rep. Jim. McGreevy, who has had $5.9 million to spend on the uncontested primary and will have the "full backing" of the DNC (read $800,000) in the fall.

There are also three special elections for the House due to the deaths of Democratic members Julian Dixon, D-Calif., Norman Sisisky, D-Va., and Joe Moakley, D-Mass. The Dixon and Moakley seats are safe for the Democrats, but the Sisisky seat is very competitive. Vice President Dick Cheney will go to the district on Monday to campaign for Republican State Senator Randy Forbes, who is running against Democratic State Senator Louise Lucas.

The Democratic primary for Moakley's seat will get significant national attention because of the probable candidacy of yet another Kennedy, RFK's son Max.

He will not have an easy time however. Several entrenched locals in the parochial district are possible strong contenders, including state senators Brian Joyce, Steve Lynch and Marc Pacheo.

There will also be special elections in Florida's 1st District and Arkansas' 3rd to fill vacancies caused by the resignations of popular Republican congressmen Joe Scarborough and Asa Hutchinson.

Moakley's pal, former speaker Tip O'Neill was fond of saying, "All politics are local." If that's the case, the "off-year" may be the most intensely political of them all.