NEW YORK, March 13, 2001
Poll: Split Signals On Taxes
CBS News/New York Times Poll, March 8-12, 2001
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(CBS/AP)
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Interactive Bush's First 100 Days Follow the Bush administration through its early days.
Although the public says it prefers President Bush's plan over that proposed by the Democrats in Congress, Democrats are equally as likely as Republicans to receive credit for being able to manage the surplus.
And while taxes emerged as the number one issue Americans want the government to address, they also prefer that the budget surplus be used to preserve Social Security rather than used to finance a tax cut, and by a wide margin.
In addition, a strong current of partisanship exists on these issues. Americans are examining the various budget proposals at a time of increasing concern about the economy and for the first time in almost five years, a majority believes that the country has gotten off on the wrong track.
PRESIDENT BUSH'S PLAN
Three quarters of Americans have heard at least something about President George W. Bush's proposal to use the budget surplus, and a majority of Americans now support it. In this poll, 57 percent favor Bush's proposal to use about a third of the budget surplus to cut taxes, about a third to reduce the debt and a third for other purposes such as government spending and a reserve fund; 36 percent oppose it.
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| BUSH'S PLAN FOR SURPLUS | ||
| Favor | Oppose | |
57% | 36% | |
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But support for Bush's proposal is heavily divided along party lines: 88 percent of Republicans favor it, while 8 percent oppose it. Among Democrats, 64 percent oppose the Bush plan and 26 percent favor it.
There are three concerns about the Bush plan: increasing skepticism as to whether or not the country will be able to afford it, belief that the plan mostly benefits the rich, and the expectation that it will not make a significant difference in Americans' pocketbooks.
Forty-eight percent of the public thinks it is possible to preserve programs such as Social Security and Medicare, increase spending on education and cut taxes by $1.6 trillion, as Bush has proposed, but 43 percent think it is not possible to do all these things at the same time. And among those who think all these goals are not possible, 61 percent oppose the president's budget plan.
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| SAVE SOCIAL SECURITY, SPEND ON EDUCATION AND CUT TAXES? | ||
| Possible to do all | Not possible | |
48% | 43% | |
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There is a clear perception that Bush's tax cuts - the key component of his proposal - aren't viewed as benefiting most people. Fifty-six percent think the tax cuts in his proposed budget are unfair because they mostly benefit the rich, and 38 percent think they are fair to most Americans. By a significant margin, the public sees the rich as the major beneficiaries. Only 24 percent think the middle class will benefit, and only 7 percent believe everyone will benefit.
Perceptions of who benefits, and the fairness of Bush's tax cuts, vary depending on party affiliation and income: 73 percent of Republicans think Bush's tax cuts are fair to all, while 83 percent of Democrats believe they favor the rich. Among those with lower incomes, the perception is that Bush's tax cuts are unfair; those with household incomes of $75,000 or more also view Bush's tax cuts as benefiting the rich, but by a very small margin.
Most Americans do not believe a Bush tax cut will put any more money in their pockets. Thirty-nine percent think the Bush tax cut will make a significant difference in the amount of money they have after taxes, while 54 percent think it will not. Even those with the highest incomes ($75,000 or more, who are expected to benefit most from these tax cuts, are divided about the effects. Forty-five percent of them believe they will see some extra money, but slightly more, 49 percent, think they will not.
Forty-two percent of those who say Bush's tax cut - the focal point of his plan for the surplus - will not give them additional money, nevertheless support his plan for using the budget surplus.
THE DEMOCRATS' PLAN
Fifty-six percent of Americans have heard something about the plan to use the budget surplus proposed by the Democrats in Congress, in which more than half of the surplus would go toward debt reduction, with the rest divided equally among a tax cut, government spending and a reserve fund. Forty-nine percent favor this proposal, and 42 percent oppose it.
As with the Bush proposal, reaction to the Democratic proposal is influenced by partisanship: 74 percent of Democrats favor it, while 18 percent oppose it. Among Republicans, 69 percent oppose the plan and 22 percent favor it.
But the public views the Democratic tax cut plan as more likely to benefit the average American. Forty-seven percent believe the middle class will benefit most from the Democrat's tax cuts, and 18 percent think the rich will; 4 percent think everyone will benefit.
WHICH ONE?
When asketo choose between the two proposals, Bush's plan receives greater support from the public than does the plan put forth by the Democrats - although not by a large margin. Forty-nine percent prefer Bush's plan for the surplus, while 41 percent prefer the Democrats'.
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| WHICH PLAN FOR SURPLUS DO YOU PREFER? | ||
| George W. Bush's | Democrats in Congress | |
49% | 41% | |
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This may be because Americans are more familiar with the Bush plan than they are with the plan promoted by the Democrats – 31 percent have heard a lot about Bush's plan, but only 16 percent have heard a lot about the Democrats'. But among those who have heard a lot about both plans, the Bush plan wins out by a 15-point margin, 56 percent to 41 percent.
As would be expected, Republicans come down strongly in favor of Bush's plan (85 percent prefer it), while Democrats prefer the plan proposed by Democratic Congressional leaders (73 percent prefer that plan).
Although the public prefers Bush's plan for using the surplus, people are evenly split when asked which party, he Republicans or Democrats, would be more likely to make the right decisions about how to use the surplus. Forty-three percent say the Democratic Party would do a better job, and 43 percent think the Republicans would.
And finally, the public is divided as to which tax plan would be fairest to people like them: 44 percent say Bush's would be fairer to them, and 43 percent say the Democrats' would be.
THE ESTATE TAX
There is strong public support for one aspect of Bush's proposed tax bill, and that is eliminating the estate or "death" tax. Seventy-one percent of Americans oppose placing a tax on assets someone leaves when they die if the assets are worth more than $675,000 today. And, this issue is not impacted by partisanship - similar percentages of both Democrats and Republicans oppose the estate tax.
The public also agrees that those who inherit small businesses, farms and ranches should be exempt from having to pay this tax at all. Eighty-one percent say people who inherit this type of property should not have to pay the estate tax.
ARE TAX CUTS A PRIORITY?
Bush's emphasis on tax cuts, and his positioning of the issue as something that Americans deserve, has struck a chord with the public. For the first time since Bush announced his candidacy for President in 1999, taxes has risen to the number one problem the public wants the government and Congress to address. Now, 18 percent name it as the most important problem, putting it far above social issues such as education (10 percent), Social Security/Medicare (8 percent), and health care (6 percent), and also above the economy (9 percent) and the budget (6 percent). Throughout the 2000 campaign season, social issues such as Social Security, education and health care dominated the list.
While taxes has risen to the top of the public's list of priorities for the government, Americans may be reluctant to finance a tax cut at the expense of strengthening Social Security. By a large margin, the public wants the budget surplus to be applied to Social Security and Medicare rather than taxes. When asked how they want the budget surplus spent, 53 percent want it applied to Social Security, while 19 percent choose cutting taxes and 14 percent opt for paying down the national debt.
Another issue that has emerged since the election is concern about the economy. Like the President, many Americans view a tax cut as a possible stimulus, and many think a tax cut will give the economy a needed boost, or at least won't damage it. Forty-three percent think a large tax cut will be good for the economy, and just 20 percent think it would be bad, and 33 percent think it won't make any difference.
And tax cuts are viewed as better than other policies for stimulating the economy. Fifty-four percent think cutting taxes would be better for the economy right now, while 40 percent think paying down the debt would give the economy a bigger boost.
A maority agrees with the argument offered by the Republican president in defense of his tax cuts, that it is necessary to cut taxes in order to keep Congress from spending the surplus: 56 percent agree this is the case, and 35 percent disagree.
THE BUDGET SURPLUS - MYTH OR REALITY?
Despite all the talk of ways to spend the budget surplus, a bare majority knows that one exists. Fifty-one percent think the government now takes in more than it spends, 15 percent think it takes in as much as it spends, and 28 percent think it takes in less than it spends, or runs at a deficit.
When asked what Bush says his budget will do, the public is even less certain. 36 percent think Bush is saying the government will continue to take in more than it spends, and 33 percent think his budget will mean the government spends the same amount it takes in; 23 percent think Bush says his budget will spend more than it takes in.
In 1981, the public had a clearer picture of what then-President Reagan's budget meant in terms of government spending. Then, 45 percent thought Reagan was proposing that the government take in less money than it spends, or run at a deficit.
MOOD OF THE COUNTRY
This CBS News/New York Times poll finds that the country has shifted into a negative mood - the majority of Americans now say things have seriously gotten off on the wrong track in this country, while four in ten think the country is generally going in the right direction. This is the first time a majority of the American public has expressed negative assessments of the direction of the country in more than four years.
Concerns about the national economy seem to be a significant reason why people think the country is on the wrong track. Seventy-seven percent of those who say the nation's economy is fairly bad or very bad express negative opinions about the country's direction, as do two thirds of those who think the economy is getting worse.
But there is also an important partisan difference on evaluating the state of the country. Democrats say the country has pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track by 61 percent to 34 percent, while Republicans say things are generally going in the right direction by 54 percent to 42 percent. People with household incomes under $30,000 are concerned about the way things are going by 66 percent to 30 percent, compared with 47 percent of those with household incomes of over $50,000 who think so.
The negative assessments of the country's direction are not, however, directly correlated with George W. Bush's job approval ratings. While three quarters of those who disapprove of Bush's handling of his presidency say the country is on the wrong track, among those who approve of George W. Bush's job as president, 44 percent also say the country has seriously gotten off on the wrong track, and barely half say it is going in the right direction.
THE ECONOMY AND JOB SECURITY
Fears of being ot of work have increased slightly as more Americans worry about a deteriorating economy. Now 54 percent of Americans say they are very or somewhat concerned that someone in their household will be laid off in the next two or three years - up from 49 percent just a month ago. Although most Americans say the economy is still in good shape, 41 percent now think the economy is getting worse, while only 7 percent think it is getting better.
Women are more likely than men to be concerned about layoffs – 57 percent of women say they are very or somewhat concerned that they or someone in their household might be laid off in the next two or three years, compared with 51 percent of men who said so. Lower-income Americans are much more concerned than those with higher incomes – 65 percent of those whose household incomes are below $30,000 say they are very or somewhat concerned about layoffs, compared with 45 percent of those with household incomes of $50,000 or higher who say so.
In addition, two thirds of Americans say it is very hard or somewhat hard to keep up with their bills nowadays; only a third say keeping up with bills is easy. Seventy percent of women say it is hard to keep up with the bills; 61 percent of men agree. Not surprisingly, lower-income Americans are much more likely to find it hard to keep up with the bills than those with higher household incomes.
Evaluations of the stock market have worsened since last month. Now one-third rate the condition of the stock market as fairly bad or very bad, compared with just under a quarter who said so a month ago. Fifty-two percent now say the condition of the stock market is excellent or good, down from 60 percent a month ago.
More people still expect the stock market to go up - rather than go down - in the next year: 51 percent think the stock market will go up in the next year or so, while 32 percent think it will go down; 17 percent have no opinion.
Investors are more negative about the current condition of the stock market, but more bullish (or perhaps just hopeful) about its future. Forty-five percent of investors say the stock market is bad, but 63 percent expect it to go up in the next year or so.
OTHER BUSH PRIORITIES
Education
President Bush has also clearly made education a top priority for his presidency, proposing a voucher program, student testing and tying federal funds to schools to test results. Although there is support for some of Bush's education proposals, the public disagrees with him on others.
Forty-nine percent agree that parents should get tax-funded vouchers they can use to help pay for tuition for their children to attend private or religious schools instead of public schools, and 48 percent disagree. In January, 43 percent agreed and 51 percent disagreed.
Among proponents of vouchers, two-thirds would continue to support a voucher program even if it means the public schools in their community would receive ess money.
Although a majority favors mandatory testing of students as a way to determine how well the school is doing educating students, there is clear opposition to using the results of these kinds of tests to determine whether or not a school can receive federal funds. Seventy-eight percent favor testing students, but 68 percent oppose tying test results to federal funding.
Faith-Based Organizations
President Bush created the White House Office of Faith-Based and Community Initiatives to assist religious and community groups obtain federal funds. By more than two to one, Americans support this action; 66 percent think it is a good idea for the federal government to give money to religious organizations so they can provide social services, and 30 percent think it is a bad idea.
Sixty-one percent of the public thinks that when religious organizations provide social services, they are also trying to promote their religious message. That may be why the public's support for this program is conditional; Americans set limits on what kinds of religion should qualify for a government grant. Few Americans support giving money to religious organizations if it would mean the government would be giving money to organizations such as the Nation of Islam, Hare Krishnas or the Church of Scientology. Then, only 29 percent think it is a good idea, and 64 percent think it is a bad idea.
Those who identify with the conservative Christian political movement known as the religious right (about 11 percent of the population) agree with most other Americans on these questions: 75 percent think giving government money to faith-based organizations is a good idea. But the religious right is even less tolerant of giving government money to organizations such as the Nation of Islam or the Church of Scientology; 23 percent think this is a good idea, and 70 percent think it is a bad idea.
The Environment
Public opposition to drilling for oil and natural gas in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge has recently strengthened. Now, 36 percent approve of this, and 57 percent disapprove. Just last month, 42 percent approved and 50 percent disapproved.
Sixty-one percent agree that protecting the environment is so important that requirements and standards cannot be too high and continuing environmental improvements must be made regardless of cost; 33 percent disagree. The same number – 61 percent - believes that protecting the environment is more important than producing energy.
Military and Defense
Three quarters of the public favors trying to develop a land and sea based defense system that would intercept and destroy incoming missiles before they reach the U.S. - something nearly two-thirds of Americans think the country already has. Sixteen percent oppose this; 66 percent think such a system is likely to work.
Thirty-nine percent say it is very important for the U.S. to build a missile defense sytem against nuclear attack, and 42 percent say it is somewhat important. Support for such a system is strong; 67 percent continue to favor it even after being told that the U.S. has so far spent $60 billion trying to develop one. But if told that many scientists conclude it is unlikely to work, only 35 percent favor it, and 33 percent would favor it if it meant breaking the arms control treaty we now have with Russia.
But defense has yet to capture the attention of many Americans. Only 39 percent have heard or read much about the current debate on the issue. And national defense ranks low on the list of government priorities; only 3 percent cite defense as the top priority for government.
BUSH'S PRESIDENCY
George W. Bush's job approval ratings have gone up in the past month - now 60 percent of Americans approve of the job he is doing as president, compared to the 53 percent approval rating he received a month ago. Just over half now also approve of his handling foreign policy and the economy.
Though slightly better than what Bill Clinton received at this stage of his presidency, George W. Bush's approval ratings are still somewhat lower than those of several other past presidents at the beginning of their presidency. Presidents Reagan and Carter both received higher approval ratings at similar stages of their administration.
There are significant differences by race, income, and party affiliation: 94 percent of Republicans approve of Bush's job as president, while only 37 percent of Democrats do. White Americans approve of Bush's job by 65 percent to 19 percent, while blacks disapprove by 38 percent to 36 percent, with another 26 percent undecided.
BUSH'S IMAGE
George W. Bush also has made some progress at improving specific aspects of his image during this political honeymoon - most view him as caring and capable of keeping the economy strong, and confidence in his ability to deal with international crisis has also increased somewhat. However, Bush has so far failed to convince the American public that he is really in charge of his administration.
Forty-two percent now say Bush is in charge of what goes on in his administration most of the time, while half think other people are really running the government, including one in five Republicans. These assessments are unchanged from last month, despite the President's active national campaigns for his budget and tax plans.
During the campaign, the public was divided - if not negative - about Bush's ability to handle an international crisis, but now, for the first time, a majority of Americans – 52 percent - say they have confidence in Bush's ability to deal with it wisely should an international crisis arise. But 40 percent still say they are uneasy about his approach. Fifty-six percent of men say they have confidence, while women are more evenly divided. In addition, seven in ten say they have at least some confidence in George W. Bus's ability to keep the economy strong.
About two thirds of Americans say George W. Bush cares about their needs and problems at least some (including a third who say Bush cares about them a lot), and 61 percent say the same about Bush's caring about black people.
However, there are sharp racial differences. Fifty-six percent of blacks do not think Bush cares about their needs and problems. And while 65 percent of whites think Bush cares about the needs and problems of black people, 61 percent of blacks disagree.
Bush's favorable ratings have remained unchanged so far this year, while his unfavorable ratings have gone down somewhat, as more people seem to have adopted a wait-and-see attitude – 30 percent had an unfavorable opinion of him in January, 19 percent now do. Four in ten have a favorable view.
BIPARTISANSHIP EFFORT AND ASSESSMENT OF THE TWO PARTIES
The public expresses continued optimism about the likelihood of the president and Democrats in Congress working together: 61 percent think George W. Bush will compromise with Democrats in Congress in order to get things done; just as many say Democrats in Congress will work with Bush.
Democrats are more skeptical than Republicans on whether or not Bush will compromise with Democrats in Congress. Both Democrats and Republicans are positive that Democrats in Congress will work with the President.
The public now has very similar views of the two political parties, a change in the last year. Over half now have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party, while about two in five are unfavorable. Opinions of the Democratic Party are not much different.
The Republican Party appears to have somewhat improved its image in the past few months, while opinions of the Democratic Party have not changed much in the past year.
The Democratic Party still enjoys advantages on issues such as ensuring the country's prosperity and making the right decisions about Social Security, but the Republicans closed the Democratic lead on the issue of education during the 2000 presidential campaigns.
The public now views the Republican Party just as likely as - if not more than - the Democratic Party to improve education. In September 2000, the Democrats had a seven-point lead over the Republicans among voters on the issue of education. On the issue of Social Security, however, the public still places more trust in the Democratic Party.
In addition, the Democratic Party is viewed by a narrow margin as more likely to make sure the country is prosperous. Both parties are considered to be equally likely to make the right decisions about the budget surplus.
THE 2000 ELECTION
Three months after the 2000 election outcome, the number of Americans who think George W. Bush won the election legitimately has increased. Now 56 percent say Bush legitimately won the 2000 presidential election, while 37 percent still maintain that he did not. This acknowledgement f Bush's legitimacy is the highest since the CBS News poll started asking the question in December 2000.
As has been the case since the election, there are sharp contrasts in the public's opinions on the outcome of the 2000 presidential election. Now one in five of those who voted for Gore in last year's election say Bush's win was legitimate, but 74 percent still say it was not. About three quarters of blacks say Bush did not win legitimately, as they have since the election was resolved last December. Democrats, by a wide margin, also continue to view Bush's election win as not legitimate.
This poll was conducted by telephone March 8-12, 2001, among 1,105 adults nationwide. The error due to sampling could be plus or minus three percentage points for results based on the entire sample. Sampling error for subgroups may be higher.
For detailed information on how CBS News conducts public opinion surveys, click here.
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