Poll: Looking Ahead At Dubya

CBS News Poll, Dec. 14-16, 2000

(CBS)  Although the public has warmed to President-elect George W. Bush in the past month, optimism and expectations for his presidency are lower than usual for newly elected leaders.

One in four think Bush does not have the public support to accomplish his goals, and many believe he will not be able to make the specific reforms to education, Social Security, prescription drug coverage, and tax cuts that he has proposed.

The public divides closely when it comes to satisfaction with the election's outcome, and is doubtful of the Florida count. Just 53 percent think Bush won the election legitimately - and nearly half fear the election controversy has weakened the U.S. democratic system.


EXPECTATIONS FOR A BUSH PRESIDENCY

Expectations for the next four years, and for a Bush presidency, are far from enthusiastic. Four in ten expect George W. Bush to be a better than average president, but optimism about the next four years is the lowest it has ever been in any post-election CBS News Poll.

60 percent are optimistic about the next four years with George W. Bush as president, but previous incoming presidents have received more enthusiasm from the public. About seven in ten felt optimistic about the future just before Presidents Bill Clinton, George H. W. Bush, Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter took office.

Feelings About Next Four Years
	Optimistic	Pessimistic
Now	60%	26%

Expectations aren't dismal, however. 42 percent expect that George W. Bush will be a good president, and 38 percent think he will be average. 14 percent expect him to be a poor one. In 1988, 38 percent thought George H. W. Bush would be a good president, and 47 percent expected him to be average. 9 percent thought he would be poor.

Doubts about Bush's experience in general, and specifically his knowledge of foreign policy, continue to present problems for him. When asked what worries them the most about George W. Bush's presidency, 12 percent of Americans say he is not qualified or experienced enough, and an additional 5 percent mention his lack of foreign policy experience. 5 percent think he will be unable to deal with a divided Congress.

Perhaps because of his lack of experience in world affairs, there are doubts as to whether Bush will be in control of his administration, and nearly half say other people, not the president-elect, will really be in control. 46 percent think other people will really be running the government most of the time, while 43 percent think Bush will be in charge of what goes on in his administration most of the time. By comparison, Bush's Republican predecessors received different evaluations in office. By 5-to-4, the public viewed George H. W. Bush as being in charge, but by two to one they believed others ran Ronald Reagan's administration.

Bush's reputation for facilitating bipartisanship in the Texas legislature may make it easier for him to deal with the divided Congress. Two-thirds think he will be able to work with members of both parties in Congress in order to get things done. Nonetheless, one in four disagree.


ACCOMPLISHING GOALS

Doubts about the Bush presidency stem in part from skepticism about what the public believes he will be able to accomplish during his tenure. 61 percent think that given the closeness of the election, Bush will have enough support from the public to be able to accomplish all the goals he laid out in his campaign. But more than one in four think he does not have the necessary support. Gore voters are especially negative, with more than half saying Bush does not have enough public support.

oes Bush Have Public Support To Accomplish Goals?
	Yes	No
	61%	28%

Bush faces another hurdle when it comes to specific policy proposals, as not all receive broad popular support, and most people don't believe he will be able to achieve them.

Although tax cuts have a lower priority than strengthening Social Security, and most see more important uses for the budget surplus, a majority of the public supports a large tax cut. And most Americans favor allowing individuals to invest some of their Social Security taxes themselves. However, reactions to Bush's proposals for military spending and education are mixed.

45 percent favor establishing a federal fund that would reward schools that improve student performance and withhold funds from schools in which student performance declines, and 46 percent oppose this idea. 43 percent support increasing defense spending by at least 20 billion dollars by the year 2006, while 45 percent oppose it.

However, less than half of the public thinks Bush will be able to accomplish many of his specific goals.

Will Bush Be Able To...?
	Improve education	Reduce prescription drug costs	Strengthen Social Security	Cut taxes for all
	49%	46%	41%	33%

Previous Presidents - particularly the current president-elect's father - have inspired greater public confidence before they took office. Just before George H. W. Bush took office, 62 percent thought the incoming president wold be able to significantly improve education, and 69 percent thought he would improve relations with the Soviet Union. Fewer thought he would be successful solving social problems such as reducing homelessness, reducing the drug problem, or improving the environment.


PUBLIC VIEWS OF BUSH

The public's view of Bush has improved recently on a number of specific qualities. 57 percent now say Bush cares about their needs and problems, up from 53 percent in November. 53 percent think Bush can be trusted to deal with all the problems a president has to deal with, up from 45 percent in October. Now, 39 percent are concerned he might make serious mistakes, down from 49 percent two months ago. 46 percent say he will bring different groups of people together, up from 43 percent earlier this month. Nearly two-thirds say Bush will be able to lead the country effectively.

Views Of Bush
	Will lead country effectively	Cares about people & their problems	Trusted to deal with problems	Will bring different people together
	62%	57%	53%	46%

Overall views of Bush among voters remains high, with 49 percent having a favorable image of him and 31 percent having an unfavorable view. Unfavorable ratings of him have gone down since the election's resolution. 59 percent of the public approves of the way his campaign handled the uncertain outcome of the election.


THE ECONOMY

Bush has the advantage of entering office at a time of historic economic strength. 86 percent say the economy is good, and only 13 percent think it is bad. Despite the change in leadership and the protracted election, most Americans expect, at the very worst, that the economy will remain healthy. 14 percent think the economy is getting better, and 53 percent think it is staying the same. 30 percent think it is getting worse - though that is the highest percentage thinking that in more than four years.


GORE'S REHABILITATION

In a CBS News Poll conducted one week ago, public assessments of Vice President Al Gore had reached new lows. Since the election's resolution and Gore's concession speech on December 13th, he has recovered much of the ground he lost.

One week ago, disapproval of the Gore campaign's handling of the uncertain outcome of the election outpaced approval by nearly twenty points, but now opinion has shifted to a more favorable assessment. 52 percent approve of the way the Gore campaign handled the election, and 42 percent disapprove.
Public reaction to Gore's withdrawal is mixed, but few would say Gore withdrew too soon. 40 percent think Gore withdrew at the right time, and 44 percent think he should have done so earlier. Only 13 percent think his concession was premature. Not surprisingly, these views vary by party. 67 percent of Gore voters think he withdrew at the right time, while 79 percent of Bush voters believe he ought to have done so earlier.

Overall views of Gore himself have also risen since thelection was resolved. In this poll, 44 percent of voters have a positive view of Gore, and 39 percent have a negative view of him. One week ago, Gore's unfavorable ratings surpassed favorable views of him by 48 percent to 41 percent.


THE ELECTION CONTROVERSY

The controversy over the election outcome and vote counting continues to cast a cloud over the election. Just 53 percent say Bush legitimately won the election, while 40 percent think he did not.

By nearly two to one, Americans think the vote count in Florida was not fair and accurate. 60 percent say it was not fair and accurate, and only 32 percent think it was. Even 26 percent of Bush voters believe the vote in Florida was not accurate. Prior to the Supreme Court decision last week, 47 percent thought the Florida vote count would not be fair and accurate.

The Supreme Court's decision in Bush v. Gore may have cost it some credibility. In this poll, 46 percent said they had quite a lot of confidence in the Supreme Court, down from 57 percent two weeks before.

When Gore looks back on the campaign, he may have some regrets. 47 percent think that if Gore had done things differently in his campaign, he could have won against Bush. Another 6 percent volunteered that he did win, but the votes weren't counted accurately (that figure rises to 12 percent among Gore voters). 32 percent of the public thinks Gore could not have won.

Seven in ten - a higher number than one week ago - knew Gore had won more popular votes nationally than Bush, and 46 percent think more voters in Florida intended to vote for Gore. Just 34 percent say more Florida voters planned to vote for Bush.


A WEAKENED SYSTEM?

In addition to the public's lowered expectations for a new president, and a lessening of confidence in the Supreme Court, there are indications that this election made many people more concerned about American democracy.

Asked whether the election strengthened democracy by demonstrating that the system works, or weakened it by pointing out its flaws, nearly half say it weakened democracy. A quarter say it strengthened the system, while 19 percent saw no impact one way or the other.

The Election Controversy's Impact On Democracy
	Strenghened it	Weakened it	No impact
	25%	48%	19%

THE OUTGOING PRESIDENT

One person whose image seems to have benefited from the election controversy is President Bill Clinton, who is enjoying some of the highest job approval ratings he has had in eight years. Now, 67 percent of Americans approve of the job Clinton has done as president. 66 percent approve of his handling of foreign policy, and 73 percent approve of the way he has handled the economy.

Overall, 55 percent think he has been a good or very good president, 27 percent say he has been average and 17 percent think he has been a poor president. Those figures exceed the reviews the public gave the last outgoing President, George H.W. Bush.

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This poll was conducted by telephone December 14-16, 2000, among 1,048 adults nationwide. The error due to sampling could be plus or minus three percentage points for results based on the entire sample, and the sample of registered voters. Sampling error for subgroups may be higher.