NEW YORK, Oct. 29, 2000
Hillary Holds Her Lead
CBS News / New York Times Poll, Oct. 25-28
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(CBS)
In a CBS News / New York Times Poll conducted October 25-28 among likely voters statewide, 49 percent of likely voters say they intend to vote for Mrs. Clinton, while 41 percent say they will vote for Lazio. And while Clinton's supporters may not necessarily be more committed than Lazio's, they are much more likely to say they are voting for their candidate, not just against the opponent.
 | ||
| Vote For N.Y. Senate | ||
| Clinton | Lazio | |
| Now | 49% | 41% |
| Clinton | Lazio | |
| September | 48% | 39% |
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The eight-point margin is similar to Clinton's lead in the CBS News / New York Times Poll conducted after the first debate between the candidates. In that September poll, Clinton led Lazio by nine points - 48 percent to 39 percent. In the current poll, the gap between the two candidates does not change when undecided voters are asked which way they lean.
Mrs. Clinton's voters are more enthusiastic. Nearly two-thirds say they strongly support her, something less than half of Lazio's voters say about him. Nearly a quarter of those voting for Lazio say they are motivated mostly by dislike of Mrs. Clinton.
The new poll includes interviews conducted in the period surrounding the final Senate debate on October 27, and does not reflect the full impact of that debate nor the recent charges of negative telephone campaigning. But even before these events, most voters described the Lazio campaign as one that mainly attacked rather than explained.
The first lady has built her lead from strong support in New York City - where 72 percent of likely voters say they will vote for her - and from minority voters and women. She trails Lazio both in the New York City suburbs and upstate, but by small enough margins to be ahead overall. Upstate, Lazio gets 50 percent to Clinton's 40 percent, and his lead in the suburbs is 51 percent to 39 percent.
A month ago, it appeared that the first lady might have made inroads with suburban women, but that is no longer the case. However, she enjoys a 19-point lead among all women voters statewide. And among Jewish voters, a group both candidates have appealed to, Clinton leads Lazio by 72 percent to 17 percent.
Looking only at those who say they voted two years ago, when Democrat Chuck Schumer defeated then-Senator Al D'Amato, the race is much tighter - in fact, it is almost even. Mrs. Clinton leads Lazio 46 percent to 45 percent. However, turnout is always higher in presidential years, and it is those voters who provide the First Lady with her larger lead.
THE CAMPAIGNS
Voters continue to view the Lazio camaign as primarily on the attack, while viewing Clinton's campaign as one of issues, and this perceived negativity might be hurting Lazio's image. Allegations of Republican push-polling broke at the end of this poll, but last week's Muslim fund-raising controversy has not affected views of Clinton's support for Israel so far.
60 percent of New York State voters feel that Lazio is spending more time attacking Clinton than explaining his positions on the issues. And among those who feel the campaign is on the attack, Lazio is viewed unfavorably by a two-to-one margin. In contrast, voters view Clinton's campaign positively: 60 percent say she spends most of her time explaining her issue positions rather than attacking Lazio.
Mrs. Clinton is still seen as a strong supporter of Israel, despite reports last week of her campaign's fund-raising from anti-Israeli Muslims. Half of New York state voters feel that Clinton would be a strong supporter of Israel in the U.S. Senate. Seven in ten Jewish voters agree. Slightly fewer - 44 percent overall and 61 percent of Jewish voters - believe Lazio would be. Clinton's numbers are unchanged from a September survey, but Lazio has gained some ground on this issue: previously only 34 percent of all voters though he would support Israel in the Senate.
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| Would Candidate Support Israel In The Senate? | ||
| Clinton | Lazio | |
| Yes | 50% | 44% |
| Clinton | Lazio | |
| No | 17% | 15% |
| ||
Perhaps because her campaign is seen as one of substance rather than attacks, voters think Clinton is doing a better job discussing important issues in the campaign. 47 percent of voters think that Clinton is doing a better job discussing the important issues, while only 29 percent think Lazio is.
ADVERTISING AND THE SURROGATES
Most voters have seen an advertisement for one candidate or the other, and Clinton has a slight edge on truthfulness. 48 percent of voters believe that Clinton's ads are mostly truthful, while only 17 percent think they are not. 41 percent think Lazio's ads are mostly truthful, while 19 percent say they are not.
But while they see them as truthful, voters say the ads are having little effect on them. Few voters say the advertisements have provided them with any new information, and an overwhelming majority of voters say the ads have not helped them decide their vote.
Voters feel that each candidate's most visible political benefactor is appropriately involved in the campaign. 67 percent say President Clinton's involvement in the first lady's campaign is about right, and 54 percent say Governor George Pataki's involvement in the Lazio campaign is at the right level.
One politician Mrs. Clinton might like to see more involved in Lazio's campaign is former Seaker of the House Newt Gingrich. Clinton's ads have been trying to tie Lazio to Gingrich, a promising strategy in New York. State voters view Gingrich negatively by nearly a five-to-one margin: 48 percent view him unfavorably while only 10 percent view him favorably.
On the other hand, the Lazio campaign's attempts to tie Clinton to former Governor Mario Cuomo may not work the way they'd like: 45 percent of New York voters view Cuomo favorably, while only 22 percent view him unfavorably.
IMAGES OF THE CANDIDATES
Little has changed in the past month in the way voters view characteristics of the two Senate candidates. Clinton is viewed more positively overall than Lazio, and is seen as having more empathy for voters and more maturity. Lazio's strength lies in perceptions of his honesty and integrity.
Although Mrs. Clinton enjoys a sizable lead over Lazio on having the maturity to serve effectively as senator, Lazio has been able to reverse some of the damage he caused himself immediately after their first debate. He continues to fall behind Clinton in voters' minds on the measure of maturity: 66 percent say she has that quality, while 56 percent say the same about him. Nevertheless, the current 10-point gap is less than half the size of the one registered in the poll taken immediately after their first debate - the one where Lazio demanded his opponent sign a pledge to refuse soft money donations to her campaign. Then, Clinton was a full 25-points ahead of Lazio on this measure among debate-watchers.
Mrs. Clinton also leads Lazio on caring about the needs and problems of voters, by 62 percent to 51 percent. But Lazio has improved on this quality as well; in September, 46 percent said that Lazio cared about their needs.
Lazio has an edge - but a much narrower one - over his opponent on two other Senatorial qualities. 58 percent of voters say he has the right experience to be Senator, and 53 percent feel he has the honesty and integrity voters would like to see in a senator. Slightly fewer say the same of Clinton. These ratings are unchanged since September.
But when it comes to actually working in the Senate, Clinton narrows the small Lazio edge in experience. Voters are divided as to which one would do a better job getting along and working with other members of the Senate. 45 percent say Mrs. Clinton would, and 42 percent say Lazio would. Perceptions about this have changed little in the last month.
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| Who Would Do Better Job Working With Senate? | ||
| Clinton | Lazio | |
| Now | 45% | 42% |
| Clinton | Lazio | |
| September | 44% | 41% |
| ||
Throughout his campaign, Lazio has stressed that he was born in New York. But that argument is not resonating with voters in the state, as 58 percent ay that Clinton could represent New York State effectively without having lived there for many years. 61 percent of voters say it makes no difference to them whether or not their senator was born in the state. Only 37 percent of voters feel Clinton could not represent New York, and 36 percent say they would prefer their Senator was born in the state. As was true in September, positive views of Mrs. Clinton among voters continue to exceed positive views of Lazio. Overall, 50 percent of voters have a favorable view of Mrs. Clinton, while 37 percent have a similar impression of him. Unfavorable views of both candidates are unchanged since last month.
ISSUES IN THE SENATE RACE
Lazio's attacks on Clinton's involvement with the administration's failed health care reform in 1993 and 1994 do not appear to be working. Voters still give Mrs. Clinton a huge lead on the issue. By a 27-point margin voters think Clinton would do a better job than Lazio working to reform health care.
In general, voters say their decision in the Senate race is unaffected by Hillary Clinton's role in the Clinton administration's failed health care reform plan. 52 percent of voters say it makes no difference in their vote. 23 percent of voters are more likely to support Clinton because of it, and 21 percent are less likely to support her.
Voters also think Clinton is more likely to make decisions they agree with on Supreme Court appointees, although they are divided over who could do more for the New York state economy. 58 percent of voters feel that Clinton is likely to make the right decisions about Supreme Court nominees, while only 43 percent think Lazio is likely to do the same. On the economy, 44 percent of voters say Clinton would do more to improve the state's economy, and 43 percent say Lazio would.
The issue of soft money works to Lazio's advantage, although it may have little impact on the vote. More than three-quarters of voters feel the soft money ban the candidates signed was a good idea, and 42 percent of voters say Lazio deserves the credit for it. Only 23 percent credit Clinton with the agreement. But Lazio doesn't stand to gain much from his efforts: 53 percent of voters say a candidate's position on soft money will not affect their vote. And in fact, among voters who say the ban is a good idea, Clinton still has the edge in support - 48 percent support Clinton, 43 percent support Lazio.
The poll was conducted among a New York statewide sample of 995 registered voters interviewed by telephone October 25-28, 2000. The sample includes 871 likely voters. Likely voters are defined as registered voters who either voted for president in 1996, or voted in the 1998 congressional elections, and say they will vote this year. This likely voter group reflects the typical distribution of the statewide vote from New York City, the suburbs and the rest of the state. The error due to sampling could be lus or minus three percentage points for results based on the samples of registered and likely voters.
Copyright 2000, CBS Worldwide Inc., All Rights Reserved.
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