Nervous About Nader

(CBS)  The CBS News Political Unit is tracking the latest campaign commercials. Steve Chaggaris analyzes a new ad from an abortion rights group that says a vote for Ralph Nader will help to elect George W. Bush.

---

The Ad: The National Abortion & Reproductive Rights Action League (NARAL) has released Think, a TV ad warning voters that "Voting for Ralph Nader helps elect George W. Bush." The 30-second ad will air in three key electoral states - Oregon, Minnesota and Wisconsin - from now until Election Day. NARAL says they may add other key states based on Nader's polling numbers.

Audio: "If you're thinking of voting for Ralph Nader, please consider: This year, a 5 to 4 Supreme Court decision narrowly protected Roe v. Wade. A single vote saved a woman's right to choose. As president, George Bush would reverse the Court ... with anti-choice justices Scalia and Thomas in control. Bush's goal? Ending legal abortion. Voting for Ralph Nader helps elect George W. Bush. Before voting Nader ... consider the risk. It's your choice."

Visuals: Pictures of Ralph Nader, George W. Bush and Supreme Court justices with graphics key text on the screen.

Accuracy: Although Bush has clearly stated he is anti-abortion, he has never specifically said he'd appoint Supreme Court justices with strict anti-abortion beliefs. Bush has pointed out he'd nominate those who generally agreed with him, although he would not require a litmus test for potential nominees.

Strategy: NARAL is clearly against a Bush presidency, worried that he would fill upcoming Supreme Court vacancies with anti-abortion justices. As a result, the group is spending over $5 million on a campaign to help Al Gore get elected. Now, with Green Party candidate Ralph Nader polling well in a few states - taking liberal votes away from Gore - NARAL's concerned that Bush could win those states' electoral votes, potentially costing Gore the election.

Although only half of Nader voters say Gore would be their second choice, the race is so close in Oregon, Minnesota and Wisconsin - the three states this ad initially targets (totaling 28 electoral votes) - that the votes which Nader gets could be the margin of victory.

For instance, in Minnesota, which has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1976, Gore is polling at 44 percent, Bush 41 percent and Nader at 8 percent in a recent poll. In Oregon, which has voted Democratic every year since 1988, Nader polled at 6 percent, leaving Gore only 1 percentage point ahead of Bush. And in Wisconsin, which has voted Democratic every year since 1988, a poll released this week has Bush up 9 points over Gore, with Nader receiving 5 percent.