Down To The Wire

(CBS)  With just over two weeks to go until the presidential election, Texas Governor George W. Bush holds a narrow lead over Vice President Al Gore as the choice of likely voters according to a new CBS News / New York Times Poll.

While many voters view Gore as more prepared than Bush for the job of president, they are more favorable about Bush personally, and they are more likely to say he is a candidate who says what he really believes.

In this poll, conducted in the days following the third and final presidential debate, 44 percent say they will vote for Bush on November 7, while 42 percent say they will vote for Gore. Asking undecided voters which way they lean doesn't change Bush's margin. Including leaners, 46 percent favor Bush, 44 percent Gore. In the CBS News / New York Times Poll conducted before the first debate, Gore had a four-point edge among likely voters.

Presidential Preference
	Bush	Gore	Nader	Buchanan
Now	44%	42%	4%	1%
	Bush	Gore	Nader	Buchanan
10/02	41%	45%	4%	2%

The debates may have finally caused voters to pay attention to the upcoming election. More voters - 60 percent - say now than at any other time this year that the campaign is interesting. 43 percent of registered voters now report paying a lot of attention to the campaign; before the first debate, just 35 percent were.

But the debates seem to have had opposite effects on each candidate's supporters, causing Bush supporters to become more enthusiastic and Gore's to become less so. Bush's voters are as enthusiastic about their candidate as they have been at any other time this year, while the level of enthusiasm among Gore's voters has fallen back nearly to pre-Democratic convention levels. In fact, one in five Gore voters say they are supporting him only because is the party's nominee.

As has been the case throughout the fall, Gore leads among women voters and Bush leads among men. In this poll, Bush's 18-point lead with men outweighs Gore's 12-point lead with women voters. Bush also does especially well with voters between the ages of 45 and 64, with high school graduates, and with political independents who give him a 12-point lead.

There are clear differences in voter perceptions of the candidates. Gore is viewed as better prepared for the job while Bush leads on some, but not all, candidate qualities. Although Gore leads in being prepared to deal with the issues a president has to face, that may be muted in part by a belief that Bush would delegate foreign policy crisis management. And while voters claim that the biggest difference between Bush and Gore is on issues, not qualities, Bush gets a boost from those voters who say that qualities matter most in their vote.

Nearly three times as many voters say issues are more important than candidates' personal qualities in deciding their presidential vote: 64 percent cite issues, while 23 percent name qualities. But while those who say they care about issues favor Gore by nine points, Bush holds a 20-point lead among those who say that a candidate's personal qualities are more important in deciding how to vote.

These differences may stem from what voters perceive the candidates are stressing when they talk about themselves. 51 percent of voters think Bush spends more time explaining who he is as a person, while 57 percent think Gore spends his time talking about his experience.

Looking ahead, there is still some room for movement in the last two weeks of the campaign. One in five likely voters are either undecided or say their minds could still change.


CANDIDATE IMAGES

Although voers believe the biggest differences between the two candidates center on their positions on the issues, voters also perceive each candidate's personal qualities somewhat differently. While more experienced, Gore seems less accessible than Bush; voters are slightly less comfortable with Gore and more apt to view his communication style as showing how much he knows rather than trying to explain his positions. Perhaps because they connect with him less, voters are less likely to trust Gore or to perceive him as a man of integrity, and unfavorable views of him have risen as a result.

An example of these differences comes on how voters perceive the candidates when they discuss the issues. Most voters think both candidates are trying to explain their positions. However, more voters think Bush is trying hard to explain where he stands, while Gore's approach is more likely to be seen as a demonstration of his knowledge. 68 percent of voters say that when Bush talks about issues, he is trying to explain his positions, and 20 percent think he is trying to show how much he knows. 52 percent think Gore explains his positions when he talks about issues, but 36 percent think he is trying to show how much he knows.

Although Bush is seen as slightly more likable than his opponent, voters respond similarly to both candidates' personalities. 53 percent say they feel mostly comfortable with Bush personally, while 43 percent are uneasy about him. Opinions about Gore are only slightly different - 50 percent are comfortable with him personally, and 43 percent are uneasy.

As was true earlier this month, both candidates remain relatively even on leadership, with majorities of voters saying each has strong qualities in this area, and Gore retains his edge over Bush on caring.

Bush's attacks on Gore's credibility may have helped him pull ahead of Gore on perceptions of integrity. 48 percent think Bush says what he really believes, while 45 percent think he says what people want to hear. In August, 42 percent felt Bush said what he believes, and 52 percent thought he said what people want to hear. In addition, 48 percent now think Bush has more honesty and integrity than most people in public life, up from 39 percent in May.

Gore suffers from being seen as less honest and more prone to pandering. Only 37 percent think Gore says what he really believes, while 58 percent think he says what people want to hear. That represents a change since August, when more voters felt Gore said what he believed. 42 percent think Gore has more honesty and integrity than most people in public life, up slightly from 39 percent in May.

Neither candidate, however, receives credit for being more honest than most from a majority of voters.

Overall personal evaluations of Gore have declined somewhat in the past few weeks. Although 46 percent of voters now see Gore favorably, unfavorable views of him have risen, from 31 percent to 35 percent now. At the same tme, favorable views of Bush have increased. Now, 49 percent of voters have a favorable impression of Bush, up from 44 percent early in October.


PRESIDENTIAL PREPAREDNESS AND INTERNATIONAL CRISES

The recent violence in the Middle East may hurt Bush more than Gore, as many voters continue to harbor doubts about Bush's ability to handle foreign affairs. Just half of voters think Bush has the skills needed to negotiate effectively with world leaders, and fewer than half are confident in his ability to deal with an international crisis.

The Candidates' Skills In Foreign Affairs
	Gore	Bush
Has Skills To Negotiate With World Leaders	70%	49%
	Gore	Bush
Could Handle An Internationa Crisis	57%	45%

Just under half of voters feel that Bush could negotiate effectively with leaders of other countries, while 37 percent think he could not. When it comes to handling international crises, voters are split - 45 percent are confident he could deal wisely with a crisis, but 46 percent are not. Gore fares much better: 70 percent of voters believe he has the skills to negotiate with world leaders, and 57 percent trust him to handle international crises.

When it comes to specifics problems, like the Middle East, Bush fares worse still. Only 36 percent of voters feel that Bush has the kind of experience necessary to deal with problems like those in the Middle East, while 62 percent of voters think Gore has that kind of experience.

These doubts appear to have little effect on Bush's support, however, as even three-in-ten Bush supporters say they doubt he could handle a crisis like the Middle East. One mitigating factor may be voters' belief that Bush would get help from his advisers in such situations. 55 percent of voters think Bush would delegate such situations to his advisers rather than get personally involved. In contrast, 62 percent of voters think Gore would get personally involved rather than delegate.

On the plus side for Bush, voters believe he would do more than Gore to defend America against terrorism: 43 percent think defense against terrorism would be strengthened in a Bush presidency, and 44 percent think they wouldn't change. Only 19 percent of voters think Gore would strengthen defenses against terrorism, while 64 percent say they wouldn't change. In general, past polls indicate that about half of all voters think American defenses have weakened under the Clinton administration.

Voters view Bush not only as less prepared than Gore to handle foreign affairs, but also to handle the presidency in general. 49 percent of voters feel that Bush has prepared himself well enough to handle the presidency, but 73 percent believe Gore has. Bush has been unable to close thigap over the course of the campaign, with even the three debates leaving the numbers unchanged.

And despite Bush's argument in the debates that he is the more skilled at bipartisanship, Gore continues to do better on this measure. 60 percent of voters feel that Bush has the skills necessary to negotiate with congressional leaders from both parties to get things done. 68 percent believe Gore has such skills.

The Middle East

Most voters have been paying attention to the crisis in the Middle East: 42 percent of voters report having heard or read a lot about the situation in the Middle East, and another 43 percent have heard or read some.

Clinton's efforts to negotiate peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians are well received, despite voter doubts about whether the American government can have a positive impact on the peace process. Two-thirds of voters approve of the way Clinton is handling the situation. However, only 42 percent of voters actually think the American government can do anything about establishing peace in the Middle East, while nearly half think the government can't do anything.

American voters side with the Israelis in the dispute, although they are skeptical of the actions of both sides. 46 percent say they sympathize more with Israel, while only 10 percent sympathize more with the Palestinians. 63 percent of voters believe that Yasser Arafat and the Palestinians have broken the terms of peace agreements made with the Israelis. But more surprisingly, voters also have doubts about Israeli actions: 34 percent think Ehud Barak and the Israeli government have been breaking the terms of the agreements, while only 32 percent think they have kept to the terms.

THE DEBATES

Voters who watched the third and final presidential debate found it to be a draw between the candidates, and in fact, the effect of all three debates is a draw of sorts. Majorities of voters admit that the debates have not changed the way they feel about either candidate as president, and only one in ten say the debates actually changed their mind about whom to support.

Among voters who watched the final debate last Tuesday night, 44 percent think Gore won the debate, 41 percent say Bush did, and 12 percent think it was a tie.

After The Debates, How Do You Feel About Bush / Gore As President?
	Better	Worse	Same
Bush	31%	14%	52%
	Better	Worse	Same
Gore	24%	20%	54%

Overall, Bush may have benefited marginally from his performance in the three debates. Nearly one-third of voters say they now feel better about the idea of Bush as president, while only a quarter now feel better about Gore as president. But majorities say their opinions of each are unchanged.

The debates may also have served to firm up Bush's support: 43 percent of voters say the debates have helped them in making their voting decision, and more of them are Bush supporters than Gore supporters. But only 12 percent of voters say they have actually changed their minds as a result of the debates, and the candidates have benefited equally from these vote switches: support among these voters is evenly divided.


THE ISSUES

The issues voters care about have remained unchanged since the start of this campaign season, and are the issues that both candidates have spent a great deal of time addressing. Health care and education tie as the number one problem voters want the government to address, mentioned by 12 percent. Social Security is named by 11 percent.

These issues historically favor Democrats, and Gore has had an edge over Bush on many of them throughout this election. However, Bush gives Gore a run for his money on dealing with education in this poll. Now, 62 percent of voters think Gore would be likely to improve education if he was elected president, but Bush closely follows with 59 percent.

Perhaps because of the economy's current health, only one in twenty voters cite the economy as the most important problem they want the government to address. 27 percent of voters say the condition of the national economy is very good right now, and 62 percent say it is fairly good. Only 8 percent say it is fair or very bad.


VIEWS OF THE VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES

Although close, voters have slightly more favorable views of the Republican vice presidential candidate than of his Democratic counterpart. 43 percent of voters have a favorable image of Dick Cheney, and 37 percent view Lieberman positively, numbers unchanged from earlier this month.

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This poll was conducted October 18-21, 2000, among a nationwide random sample of 1,279 adultinterviewed by telephone. The sample includes 1,010 registered voters, and a proportionately weighted probable electorate of 595 likely voters (825 unweighted). The error due to sampling could be plus or minus three percentage points for results based on the samples of both registered and likely voters. The error for subgroups may be larger.