Dems: Bush Can't Keep Promise

(CBS)  The CBS News Political Unit is tracking the latest campaign commercials. Candice Berry analyzes a new Democratic ad that assails George W. Bush's proposals on Social Security.

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The Ad: The day after the third and final presidential debate, the Democratic National Committee pounced on George W. Bush’s plan to privatize Social Security. In Promise, the DNC cites articles from the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal to reinforce charges that Bush’s plan to allow individuals to invest a portion of their payroll taxes in the stock market would markedly reduce guaranteed Social Security benefits.

Promise began airing Wednesday in the following battleground states: Arkansas, Iowa, Oregon, Michigan, Washington State, Wisconsin, West Virginia, New Mexico and Pennsylvania. The ad will air in Missouri starting Friday.

Audio: Narrator: What would George W. Bush’s plan do to Social Security? He’s promising to take a trillion dollars out of Social Security so younger workers can invest in private accounts. Sounds good. The problem is: Bush can’t keep both promises. Which promise is he going to break? George W. Bush: His promises threaten Social Security.

Visual: The ad begins with a head shot of Bush on the left side of the screen and the narrator’s text on the right. The entire ad continues in this format, alternating pictures of Bush with the faces of seniors.

Fact Check: The accuracy of this ad depends on whose numbers you trust. The Gore campaign contends that the total cost of Bush’s spending proposals - particularly his $1.3 trillion across-the-board tax cut - exceeds the amount of the projected budget surplus. Consequently, there is not enough money in the surplus to fund a $1 trillion Social Security personal investment program. According to Gore, Bush will have to bankroll his program with Social Security payroll taxes, thus reducing the amount of individual guaranteed benefits.

Of course, the Bush campaign vigorously disagrees and maintains that Bush’s Social Security plan, along with other spending proposals do not exceed surplus projections.

The Strategy: The Gore campaign believes it has a real advantage over George W. Bush on the issue of Social Security. Despite the appeal of investing in the stock market, many Americans are leery of a program that may reduce the Social Security benefits they already receive. Gore hoped to draw a stark distinction between himself and Bush on Social Security during the three presidential debates. This ad is part of a larger campaign effort to make Social Security a deciding factor for voters in the three weeks leading to Election Day.