NEW YORK, Oct. 2, 2000
A Slender Lead For Gore
CBS News/New York Times Poll, Sept. 27-Oct. 1
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By 45 percent to 34 percent, voters say Al Gore will win the election. (AP)
Forty-five percent of likely voters say they will vote for Gore, and 41 percent say they will vote for Bush. Green Party nominee Ralph Nader and Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan trail, with 4 percent and 2 percent respectively. These likely voters represent a probable electorate for November 7, derived from self-reports of past voting, interest in the campaign and intent to vote, along with a check of whether respondents meet the requirement to be registered to vote at their current address.
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| PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE | ||||
| Gore | Bush | Nader | Buchanan | |
45% | 41% | 4% | 2% | |
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Just one in four voters say the debates will make a great deal of difference in their vote, but most say they will watch. Those who plan to watch are looking mostly to learn about issues, but some are also concerned about candidate presentation. In a close election such as this one, Tuesday’s debate can provide a boost for either candidate, but it may be especially helpful for Bush, who lags behind Gore in voter estimation of several "presidential" traits.
Most voters think both Gore and Bush have the ability to be effective presidents, but at the moment, just under half – 49 percent - of all registered voters say Bush has prepared himself well enough for the job. That is a much lower percentage than the 71 percent who say Vice President Gore is prepared for the job. Voters also see differences between the two candidates on their abilities to work with Congress and to negotiate with foreign leaders; Gore has the advantage on both. Meanwhile, the advantage Bush has had over Gore all year on leadership qualities has narrowed.
Gore continues to hold on to a nine-point lead with women voters and does well with younger voters and those in the lower economic categories. Nine in ten black voters say they support Gore, while Bush maintains a small lead among white voters. One critical group – voters 65 and older – divides almost evenly between the two candidates in this poll. Both candidates have expressed their concerns about protecting Social Security and providing prescription drug coverage for seniors. While Gore and the Democrats lead on both of those issues, when it comes to voting, seniors are divided - 41 percent say they will vote for Gore, 39 percent for Bush.
Overall, voters sense that Gore is ahead, or likely to be ahead on November 7th. By 45 percent to 34 percent, voters say Gore will win the election; 20 percent aren’t sure who will be victorious.
CAMPAIGN ISSUES
Voters’ issue priorities have changed little over the course of the campaign. Education, health care, Medicare and Social Security have consistently been voters’ top mentions athe problems they’d most like to see the government tackle. Currently, education is at the top of this pile, with 14 percent of voters citing it as their number one concern.
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| MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE FOR GOVERNMENT TO ADDRESS | |
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| Education | 14% |
| Health care | 13% |
| Medicare | 10% |
| Social Security | 7% |
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This spells good news for Gore, as he enjoys traditional Democratic advantages on social issues, specifically health care and prescription drugs.
On the issue of education, however, Bush and the Republicans may be making headway – the traditional Dmocratic Party edge on that issue has weakened in this survey. And while Gore has an advantage over Bush on keeping the economy strong, the parties are at parity on this issue. Republicans lead the Democrats on the issues of taxes and defense.
Education
Most voters view America’s public schools as good, despite their concern over education. Sixty-three percent of voters rate schools in this country as good, while 33 percent rate public schools as bad. Voters have still more confidence in their own local schools: 73 percent rate the schools in their community as good. And while education comes up as the top issue of concern to voters, they do not think the federal government has all the answers. Seventy-four percent of voters think improving the schools is a state and local issue, and only 17 percent think it’s a federal one.
Perhaps because of their positive opinions of public schools, voters are divided over whether parents should have the option of using public money to send their children to private schools. Forty-five percent agree that parents should have this choice, but 50 percent think they should not.
Not surprisingly, voters who think the public schools are in bad shape are more supportive of vouchers – 56 percent say parents should have the choice of vouchers. Voters who think the schools are good disagree – 53 percent think vouchers should not be an option.
Medicare and Prescription Drugs
Shoring up Social Security and Medicare ranks as voters’ top choice for using the budget surplus, as it has consistently over the past year. Fifty percent percent of voters choose strengthening these programs, while 18 percent would prefer to pay down the debt, and 15 percent would like to see the surplus go primarily to tax cuts. In addition, nearly one of every five voters mentions either Medicare or Social Security as their top government priority in general.
On the hot topic of prescription drug coverage for Medicare, voters demonstrate support for Gore’s approach to the problem. Fifty-eight percent of voters think that, if elected, Gore is likely to make prescription drugs for the elderly more affordable. In contrast, only 37 percent of voters think Bush is likely to do this if elected.
Bush’s big government attacks on Gore’s Medicare drug proposal may not resonate with a public that prefers a government-oriented approach to the problem. Given the choice between the government and the insurance industry, 51 percent of voters think that the government would do a better job providing prescription drug coverage for the elderly. Only 29 percent think private insurance companies would do a better job.
Voters also have more confidence in Gore’s approach to the issue of health care costs in general: 56 percent of voters think Gore is likely to make health care more affordable for everyone if elected; only 35 percent say the same of Bush. The Democratic arty holds a similar advantage.
Oil Prices and the Economy
Voters continue to view the economy as strong, despite underlying concerns about the rising costs of gasoline and home heating oil. Twenty-six percent rate the country’s current economic performance as very good, and another 64 percent call it fairly good. Perhaps as a result, economic concerns continue to trail social issues on voters’ list of priorities.
When it comes to continuing America’s economic prosperity, voters give Gore an edge over Bush, although solid majorities think either candidate would be likely to keep the economy strong. Three-quarters of voters say Gore is likely to keep the economy strong if elected. Two-thirds say Bush is.
Bush has an edge on taxes – although neither candidate is trusted by a majority to actually cut taxes once in office. Forty-three percent think Bush would cut taxes if elected, while only 27 percent think Gore is likely to do so. The importance of a tax cut to voters remains relatively low, however, with only 7 percent mentioning taxes as an important issue.
Two-thirds of voters say that gas and oil prices in their area have increased recently, and 43 percent of voters say that rising costs affect them a lot. Another 37 percent report that they are affected somewhat by rising oil prices, while only 21 percent say they aren’t affected much.
But at the same time, voters do not see this as a top government priority – only 2 percent mention rising gas and oil prices as an important issue. In addition, voters are skeptical that either candidate would be able to do anything about rising oil costs if elected. Four in ten voters think Bush would be likely to lower oil prices if elected, and a similar number think Gore would.
Abortion and the Supreme Court
The possibility that the next president will appoint as many as three Supreme Court justices may play an important role in voters’ decision-making in this election. Seventy-three percent of voters say that the appointment of justices will be an important influence on their vote, while only 22 percent say it will not.
The main issue driving this concern is abortion. Three-quarters of voters find it important that Supreme Court justices agree with their position on abortion. And when it comes to which candidate would be more likely to choose justices who fit the voters’ profiles, Gore has an edge. Nearly half of voters think Gore would be more likely to pick justices in line with their position on abortion. Just over a third think Bush would.
Other Issues
Although Gore has been championing the issue of consumer privacy, voters give him no edge over his rival on this issue. Fifty-one percent of voters think that Gore would be likely to protect the privacy of American’s financial and health records if elected. But a similar number – 49 percent - think Bush would do the same.
But on defene, an issue Bush has often stressed, voters see a definite contrast between the candidates. Fifty-three percent of voters say that Bush is likely to make American military defenses stronger if elected, while 38 percent believe he would keep defenses at their current level. But only 18 percent of voters think Gore would strengthen national defense in office, while 63 percent think he would keep them at their current level. Few voters believe either candidate would weaken defenses.
But as with taxes, it is unlikely that this is an issue that will drive voters’ choices on Election Day – only 2 percent mention it as the top issue.
THE PARTIES
Voters currently see the Democratic Party in a more favorable light than they see the Republican Party. Fifty-eight percent of voters view the Democrats favorably and 36 percent view them unfavorably. Opinions of the Republicans are more divided – 49 percent view the GOP favorably while 44 percent view it unfavorably.
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| OPINIONS OF THE PARTIES | ||
| Favorable | Not Favorable | |
| Democrats | 58% | 36% |
| Favorable | Not Favorable | |
| Republicans | 49% | 44% |
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And when it comes to issues, the Democrats enjoy advantages on those that matter most to voters.
By 53 percent to 27 percent voters believe the Democrats would do a better job improving the health care system in this country. And by 48 percent to 36 percent voters feel the Democrats would make better decisions on Social Security than the Republicans would. On education, however, the Democratic Party’s traditional advantage may be slipping: 42 percent think the Democrats would be more likely to improve education, but 35 percent think the Republicans would. Directly following their convention, the Democrats had a 13-point edge.
Voters divide over which party would be more likely to ensure prosperity in America, 41 percent choose the Democrats and 38 percent choose the Republicans. And on the issue of taxes, Republicans retain their traditional edge – 47 percent say the GOP is more likely to reduce taxes, while only 33 percent think the Democratic Party is more likely to do so.
CANDIDATE CHARACTERISTICS
One potential vulnerability for Bush is his lack of experience in federal government, especially in comparison to Gore’s years as vice president and senator. Most voters think both candidates have the ability to be an effective president, but more voters see Gore as well prepared for the role of president. Seventy-one percent think that Gore has prepared himself well enough for the job of president and all the issues a president has to face, and 24 percent think he needs more time. In contrast, less than half of voters say the same for Bush, while 43 percent think he needs a fw more years to prepare.
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| CANDIDATE PREPARATION | ||
| Has prepared himself well enough | Needs a few more years | |
| Bush | 49% | 43% |
| Has prepared himself well enough | Needs a few more years | |
| Gore | 71% | 24% |
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Gore’s years of experience have also undoubtedly contributed to perceptions that he would be adept at negotiating with government leaders at home and abroad. Seventy-one percent of voters believe Gore has the skills needed to negotiate with members of Congress in both parties in order to get things done, and 68 percent think Gore has the skills needed to negotiate effectively with world leaders.
Compared to Gore, fewer voters say Bush possesses either of these abilities. Fifty-nine percent say Bush has the skills to negotiate with Congress, and 48 percent say Bush has the ability to negotiate with world leaders.
Majorities of voters view both Bush and Gore favorably on leadership and caring, although more view Bush as a leader and Gore receives more credit for caring. However, since early September both candidates have improved in their weaker areas. More voters now see Gore as a leader; 61% currently say he has strong qualities of leadership, up from 54 percent last month. More voters also now see Bush as caring about people like them; 53 percent say this describes Bush, up from 49 percent in early September.
Overall, Gore’s favorable rating has increased over the past few weeks. Now, 49 percent view him favorably, up from 44 percent last month; 28 percent view him unfavorably. Bush’s favorable ratings have changed little in the past three weeks - 43 percent of voters view him favorably and 30 percent view him unfavorably.
Most voters think both candidates have run generally positive campaigns, although Bush is viewed as running a more negative campaign than Gore. More voters think Gore has spent time explaining his positions than think Bush has.
THE DEBATES
More than eight in ten voters say they are very or somewhat likely to watch the first presidential debate, scheduled for October 3. Fewer than one in five are unlikely to do so. When asked, most of those who plan to watch hope to learn more about where the candidates stand on issues, an answer volunteered by 42 percent.
With few exceptions, debates have historically had little impact on voting decisions. Only one in four voters say the debates will have much effect on their vote. Seventy-one percent of those who plan to watch say they will vote mostly based on other things, not on how the candidates perform in a debate, but 24 percent of those who intend to tune in Tuesday night admit the debates will have a great deal of influence on their vote.
THE V.P. DEBATE
As the vice-presidential candiates prepare to face each other in a debate on October 5, Democratic nominee Joe Lieberman enjoys a small lead in popularity over his Republican rival Dick Cheney. Thirty-two percent of voters now have a positive view of Lieberman, while 29 percent have a favorable image of Cheney. But unfavorable ratings of Cheney are twice those of Lieberman: 16 percent have an unfavorable opinion of the Republican, compared to 8 percent for Lieberman.
This poll was conducted September 27 - October 1, 2000, among a nationwide random sample of 1,462 adults interviewed by telephone. The sample includes 1,131 registered voters, and a proportionately weighted probable electorate of 689 likely voters (963 unweighted). The error due to sampling could be plus or minus three percentage points for results based on both the samples of registered and likely voters. The error for subgroups may be larger.
Copyright 2000, CBS Worldwide Inc., All Rights Reserved.
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