Going Gore's Way

CBS News/New York Times Poll, Sept. 9-11, 2000

(CBS)  Vice President Al Gore continues to maintain a very narrow edge in his race for the presidency against George W. Bush, holding on to the bounce he received from August’s Democratic convention.

According to the latest CBS News/New York Times poll, 46 percent of registered voters say they will vote for Democrats Gore and Joe Lieberman, while 43 percent say they support the Republican ticket of Bush and Dick Cheney – Gore's best showing all year.

The vice president's lead, while within the poll's margin of error, holds up when Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan and Green Party nominee Ralph Nader are added to the choices, and increases slightly when undecided voters are asked if they lean one way or the other. In the four-way race, Gore gets 42 percent, Bush 39 percent, Nader 4 percent and Buchanan 2 percent. Gore also maintains an edge with those who say they definitely will vote in the fall, those who voted in 1996, and those who are paying a lot of attention to the campaign.

Presidential Preference
	Gore-Lieberman	Bush-Cheney
	46%	43%

Voters now see no clear differences between Gore and the Texas governor in several areas where Bush has had long-term leads – including trustworthiness, ability to handle crises and overall favorable opinion. Bush still has an advantage when it comes to voter evaluations of leadership qualities.

On issues, Gore holds an enormous advantage when it comes to questions about the voters’ top concerns - health care and Medicare/Social Security. While Bush scores on military issues, and continues to enjoy a clear advantage on cutting taxes, those issues appear to matter much less to voters.

About three-quarters of voters who favor each of the two major party candidates say their minds are made up. One in four admit their minds could change, but less than one in ten voters are completely undecided.

Gore has a ten-point lead among women voters, enough to offset Bush’s 48 to 43 percent advantage with men. Both candidates are holding on to their bases: eight in ten Republicans favor Bush, while a similar proportion of Democrats supports Gore. Self-identified liberals have solidified their support for Gore (more than three-quarters now favor him), while two-thirds of conservatives will vote for Bush. Gore leads Bush 50 percent to 41 percent among moderate voters – about the same advantage he had coming out of the Democratic convention.

Gore has a small advantage in every age group except those between 30 and 44, and he continues to maintain his support with Catholics. Fifty-three percent of Catholic voters say they support Gore, while 39 percent favor Bush. Gore is ahead in the Northeast, while Bush leads in the South. In the Midwest and the West the race is relatively close.

Voters are beginning to pay closer attention to the election; 34 percent now say they are following the campaign closely. That number matches the attention level voters gave to the 1996 campaign at this point in the race, and exceeds the attention voters paid in 1988, but is far below the figure recorded in early September 1992. Then, half of all registered voters said they were paying a lot of attention to the presidential campaign.

Voters have also changed their minds about who is likely to win this year' election. Since early this year, about half the voters expected George W. Bush to win the election, while only as many as a third though Gore would. This poll reflects the current closeness of the race and Gore's current narrow edge: 40 percent now think Gore will win, while 38 percent think Bush will.

Wh Will Win The Election?
	Now	August	May
Gore	40%	33%	29%
	Now	August	May
Bush	38%	47%	52%

However, Bush's supporters continue to be somewhat more enthusiastic about their candidate: 41 percent of Gore voters describe themselves as enthusiastic about their candidate, compared to 47 percent of Bush’s supporters.

THE CAMPAIGNS

Most voters think both presidential candidates have clearly set forth their ideas for what they would do as president, and have run generally positive campaigns, although Gore does somewhat better than Bush in voters’ campaign assessments. At this point, voters find the race interesting, and the number paying close attention has continued to increase. But even though there are generally positive feelings about the campaign, less than half the voters think either candidate will try to keep most of his campaign promises if he is elected.

A 56 percent majority of voters think that Gore has made it clear what he would like to accomplish as president, and 53 percent think the same about Bush. In addition, voters believe that both candidates' campaigns, though Gore's more so, have spent more time explaining their positions than attacking their opponent. Sixty-seven percent say Gore has spent more time explaining than attacking, while 21 percent say he's spent more time on the attack. Bush is seen as having been slightly more negative: a full third of voters think he's been spending more time on the attack, but 52 percent still think he's being positive.

Bush's somewhat more negative campaign image isn't being improved by his advertising campaign. Thirty-seven percent of voters report having seen a Bush television ad in the last week (49 percent in the battleground Midwestern states), and more than a third of these voters – 37 percent - say the ad was an attack on Al Gore rather than an informative ad about Bush. In contrast, among those who have seen a Gore ad in the last week (34 percent of voters), only 23 percent describe the ad as an attack on Bush.

Interest and attention among voters are both up: 53 percent of oters currently say the campaign is interesting, a number unchanged since the end of the conventions. In addition, 34 percent of voters report that they are paying a lot of attention to the race – the highest number yet – and another 45 percent report paying some attention.

But despite the positive and informative nature of the campaign, voters are divided over whether the candidates mean what they say. Forty-six percent of voters predict Gore would try to keep all or most of his campaign promises if elected, but 49 percent say he’ll only try to keep some or hardly any. Bush fares marginally worse – 44 percent of voters think he'll try to keep at least most of his promises, but 53 percent doubt he'll try to keep many of them.

In addition to his campaign's image edge, Gore has fared slightly better than Bush in the debate on debates. Seventy percent of voters believe that Gore would truly like to debate, while 59 percent think Bush is interested in debating. Overwhelming majorities of voters would like to see the candidates debate and think that both should accept the debates offered by the presidential commission.

While Bush's resistance to the presidential commission's debates is reminiscent of his father's reluctance to debate Bill Clinton in 1992, Gore's advantage on the issue is far smaller than Mr. Clinton’s was. Then, 67 percent thought Mr. Clinton wanted to debate, while just 24 percent thought then-President George Bush did.

CAMPAIGN ISSUES

As has been true throughout the year, voters' priorities for problems they would like the government to address center on social issues, particularly those related to health care. Eighteen percent volunteer Medicare or Social Security as the top problem they would like the government to address (9 percent name Medicare and 9 percent name Social Security), and 16 percent name health care generally. Twelve percent cite education as the top problem, putting it in third place.

Economic issues such as the budget and taxes are considered priorities by far fewer voters, and reducing taxes has fallen in voter priorities since just before the Republican convention, from 10 percent in July to 6 percent now. Only 3 percent now volunteer defense as the top priority.

Most Important Problem For Government
	Now	July 24
Medicare/Social Security	18%	14%
Health care	16%	14%
Education	12%	9%
Taxes	6%	10%
Budget	3%	3%

These priorities extend to the way voters would like to see the budget surplus used as well. Fifty-two percent of voters want the surplus used to preserve Social Security and Medicare, and fewer than one in five want it used to cut income taxes or pay down the national debt.

THE TOP ISSUES: ADVANTAGE GORE

Gore retains the post-convention lead he achieved on issues that voters want the government to address – health care and Medicare/Social Security. Sixty-two percent of voters think that if elected Gore would be likely to make health care more affordable for everyone. Only 41 percent say the same about Bush. Gore also enjoys a significant lead over Bush on making prescription drugs more affordable for the elderly; 61 percent think that Gore would reduce the cost of these drugs at least a little, while only 47 percent think Bush would do the same.

Overall, voters prefer Gore's approach to lowering prescription drugs for the elderly over Bush's. By nearly two to one, voters think the federal government rather than insurance companies would do a better job providing affordable drug coverage to seniors.

This issue – making prescription drugs affordable to the elderly – may directly affect the pocketbooks of many voters. Sixty-five percent of voters say this matters a lot personally to them, and another 23 percent say it matters some. Those most likely to be affected by the issue are those aged 45 to 64, who face the possibility of increasing medical expenses in the coming years; 90 percent of this age group say the issue matters to them personally.

Gore also has advantages on other traditionally Democratic issues. Both candidates have made education – which ranks third on voters' list of priorities – a central issue for their campaigns. Voters see Gore as slightly more likely than Bush to improve the education system, but most voters think both are likely to do so.

By much larger margins, more voters say Gore is likely to protect the environment than Bush is. Gore also leads Bush on being likely to ensure a strong economy with 76 percent saying Gore is likely to do so and 69 percent saying the same for Bush.

BUSH’S MILITARY AND DEFENSE ADVANTAGE

Since the Republican convention in July, both Bush and Cheney have criticized the Clinton administration's handling of the military and accused them of neglecting it. Voters seem to agree with this assessment: 50 percent think the military has been weakened in the past eight years, 14 percent think it is stronger than it was eight years ago, and 30 percent think the military has not changed.

Voters' views of the military align with the positions of the presidential candidate they intend to vote for. Three-quarters of Bush supporters think the military has weakened in the past eight years, whie just under two-thirds of those supporting Gore think the military has been strengthened or stayed the same.

There are differences of opinion on the military. More men than women think it has weakened: 57 percent of men and 45 percent of women say this is the case. Older voters are more likely than younger ones to hold this view as well.

Sizable numbers of voters say developing a missile-defense system is a good idea. Forty-six percent say it is very important for the U.S. to build a missile-defense against nuclear attack. Support for such a system is so strong that 70 percent continue to favor it even after being told that the U.S. has so far spent $60 billion trying to develop one. Fifty-eight percent of voters think that a land and sea-based defense system that would intercept and destroy incoming missiles before they reach the United States is likely to work, while 23 percent think it is not likely to work.

Bush enjoys a clear advantage over Gore on building a missile defense system. Three-quarters of voters think that Bush is likely to work toward developing such a system, but less than half of voters think it is likely Gore would do the same.

Nevertheless, this issue has yet to capture the attention of many voters. Only 34 percent have heard or read much about the current debate surrounding the current proposal for one. And national defense ranks much lower on the list of government priorities than do other social issues such as health care. Only 3 percent of voters cite defense as the top priority for government, compared to the 16 percent who name health care.

BUSH'S ADVANTAGE ON TAXES

Bush also holds a clear lead on the traditionally Republican issue of reducing taxes. Half think Bush would lower taxes, while 30 percent think Gore would. But again, Bush's strength on this issue may not align with voter’s priorities. Only 17 percent would like to see the current budget surplus used to reduce taxes, while a majority of voters prefer strengthening Social Security and Medicare. And like defense, reducing taxes ranks far behind other issues on voter's list of government priorities, and the number mentioning it as the top issue has actually dropped since the party conventions.

RELIGION

As vice-presidential contender Joe Lieberman invokes God and religious faith on the campaign trail, voters give a thumbs-up to candidates discussing religion in campaigns. Fifty-nine percent of voters say it is appropriate for candidates to discuss their religious beliefs in public, while only 36 percent say it is inappropriate.

Not surprisingly, religious voters are likely to find discussion of personal religious beliefs appropriate, while those for whom religion plays little or no daily role are much more likely to find such behavior inappropriate.

Perhaps because most voters accept religious discussion in the campaign, few think that any candidates have been using religion improperly in the campaign. eventy-three percent of voters say no one has been using religion improperly; 13 percent say the Democrats have been (with half of those specifying Lieberman) and 4 percent say Bush has (another 1 percent name the GOP ticket). In contrast, in 1984 a total of 42 percent of voters thought one or more candidates had been using religion improperly in the campaign.

CANDIDATE CHARACTERISTICS

Voters view the candidates equally favorably at this point in the campaign, as Gore continues his strong post-convention showing. Currently, 42 percent of voters view Bush favorably and 28 percent view him unfavorably; 44 percent of voters have a favorable impression of Gore while 29 percent have an unfavorable impression. Before the start of the conventions, voters were divided over Gore, 36 percent to 35 percent favorable to unfavorable.

Gore and Bush both continue to perform well on a host of candidate characteristics. Voters see little difference between the two on most traits, with only leadership and caring distinguishing them.

Sixty-five percent of voters think Bush has strong qualities of leadership, while 54 percent think Gore has such qualities. Directly after the Democratic convention, 62 percent said Gore had strong leadership qualities; his current 54 percent matches his pre-convention levels.

But while Bush holds the advantage on leadership, Gore continues to hold an advantage on caring: 63 percent of voters think Gore cares about people like them, 49 percent think Bush cares about them.

While most other measures have held steady, voters have lost some of their faith in both candidates' trustworthiness. Directly after the Democratic convention, 55 percent thought they could trust Bush to keep his word as president, and 59 percent thought they could trust Gore. Now, fewer than half trust each candidate.

The vice-presidential candidates continue to be viewed equally favorably, with just under a third of voters having a favorable impression of each.

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This poll was conducted September 9-11, 2000, among a nationwide random sample of 1,050 adults interviewed by telephone. The sample includes 843 registered voters. The error due to sampling could be plus or minus three percentage points for results based on the entire sample, and the sample of registered voters. The error for subgroups may be larger.