An Ambivalent Electorate

By CBSNews.com's Sarah Morton

(CBS)  As the long general election campaign gets under way, voters seem peacefully ambivalent about the presidential candidates and the primary system. On the one hand, there are complaints about the nominating process, and about George W. Bush and Al Gore. On the other, a majority of voters just polled by CBS News say they're content with their choices.

If they had to cast ballots today, 49 percent of voters would choose Bush, and 42 percent would choose Gore. Not only that, but 47 percent of those polled think that Bush, in fact, will win in November, while only 36 percent think Gore will prevail.

Still, there's good news for Gore, who has seen his numbers against Bush rise steadily over the last few months, and 11 percent of those polled say they've developed a better impression of the vice president.

There's been a lot of hand wringing over this year's primaries, which flared brilliantly, but briefly, before handing Gore and Bush the nominations they've long expected. Are voters unhappy with the process? Yes, but not overwhelmingly so. Voters split over whether the primaries provide a good venue for learning about the candidates. Almost half those polled said the early primary states, like Iowa and New Hampshire, have too much power to decide the nominees. A solid 79 percent say the whole business costs too much, and 62 percent say that, in the end, it isn't necessarily the best candidates who are left standing.

Despite that, a slight majority - 54 percent - say they're happy with their choices for the fall. That leaves a considerable number unhappy with the nominees. Independent voters in particular are ripe for a third party candidate, but not Pat Buchanan, who would draw only 4 percent of the voters if he ran against Bush and Gore.

And John McCain? Most Republicans want him to fall in line and endorse Bush, but among all voters, there's less enthusiasm for that, and 22 percent would like him to run as a third party candidate.

McCain's signature issue of campaign finance reform lingers on. It's never at the top of anyone's priority list, but over 80 percent of voters think the funding system needs change. Bush doesn't score as well as Gore on this issue: Fifty-seven percent say he is not a real campaign finance reformer, while 41 percent say Gore is (the poll was taken before Gore unveiled a new campaign finance reform plan on Monday).

But 39 percent think Gore is no more a reformer than Bush. Forty-nine percent think Gore's just mouthing the words. And if the question's asked another way - "Which candidate would be better at campaign finance reform?" - 39 percent name Gore, 38 percent name Bush and the rest can't choose.

While campaign finance reform isn't a hot item for voters, neither is anything else. There is no overriding issue dominating voters' concerns. Education was listed most frequently as the most pressing matter, but by a mere 9 percent of the voters. Gun control has moved higher up 8 percent of voters cited it first.

It's not that people don't have issues they care about, but rather, with a good economy and no threat of war, there's room for the luxury of reflection and different priorities seize different people.

Perhaps most revealingly, a third of those polled say the candidates are not really addressing the issues that matter, including education, abortion, jobs, defense, gun control and taxes. Both Bush and Gore have spent considerable time on many of these topics, but their message may seem to voters either inaudible or unwelcome. Or, far more likely, voters haven't yet begun to listen very closely.

But the candidates'; stands on various issues may not matter very much in the long run. At first blush, voters say that issues are more important than character when choosing a candidate. But when asked specifically about the relative importance of honesty, leadership qualities and policy views, 43 percent of voters cite honesty as a candidate's greatest asset, and 42 percent choose leadership. A mere 7 percent say the most important thing is that the candidate’s policies match their own views.

And the ambivalence carries over into questions about personality. A healthy skepticism about politicians may explain the majority of voters who think neither Bush nor Gore generally says what he believes. But at the same time, voters think each will keep his word; Bush fares slightly better than Gore on this question.

In short, there are no great waves rocking anyone’s boats just yet. Voters seem to be keeping a cautious eye on the horizon, and taking the candidates and the election with a grain of salt.