All Blog Posts from Public Eye

It seems that every time CBS News conducts a poll we get questions. When CBS News conducts a poll that shows President Bush’s approval rating at an all-time low of 34%, the questions become a whole lot more skeptical. We’ve looked at this issue from a couple different angles in the past and we’ll probably go through it many more times.

Since the questions we receive almost always revolve around the issue of weighting – how many Democrats, Republicans, Independents, etc. are included in the polling sample – we’ll take you through CBS’ methodology once again. Here’s how the CBS polling unit describes it:

At the end of our surveys, we find sometimes that we have questioned too many people from one group or another. Older people, for example, tend to be at home to answer the phone more than younger people, so there is often a greater percentage of older people in our surveys than exists in the American public.

When that happens, we take great pains to adjust our data so that I accurately reflects the whole population. That process is called “weighting.” We make sure that our final figures match U.S. Census Bureau breakdowns on age, sex, race, education, and region of the country. We also “weight” to adjust for the fact that people who share a phone with others have less chance to be contacted than people who live alone and have their own phones, and that households with more than one telephone number have more chances to be called than households with only one phone number.

So when we add up all the answers to our questions, we know that no one’s opinion counts for more than it should. When you see one of our poll results on TV or in the newspaper, you know that it does not show the opinions of only one or two groups of Americans.

Other pollsters use different methods of weighting than the U.S. Census breakdowns, but this is commonly accepted method of polling. There are plenty of complex and debated issues within the polling community about their craft, which is sometimes described as part science, part art. If you want to really delve into the issues, check out Mystery Pollster for a fantastic primer and in-depth analysis.

Update: Mystery Pollster recalculates the CBS weighting with same results.

Update: The Anchoress has compiled a roundup of blog reaction to the poll.

Read full post…

Paul Mirengoff over at Powerline is among those taking issue with the latest CBS News/New York Times poll, particularly regarding the questions asked about the wiretapping issue:

A New York Times/CBS poll purports to find that support for the president's warrantless surveillance program is "mixed." But the poll is bogus. In addition to the usual MSM trick of over-sampling Democrats, including non-voters, etc., the pollsters asked misleading questions that do not reflect the actual nature of the NSA intercept program.

PE has addressed the weighting issue before and you can read the entire post for more, but here’s the basic explanation from it:

The issue of weighting in polling is much discussed and debated, and there is plenty out there to consider. Mystery Pollster has some of the most in-depth discussion on all aspects of polling (you can find out all about weighting here). The issue of weighting is, at its root, about adjusting data to reflect the most accurate picture possible. There are plenty of arguments about how to do that, but for our purposes here, let’s stick to how CBS News does it.

Read full post…

There’s only so much time in a 30-minute broadcast for all the news that happens each day and only so many stories a 24-hour cable channel can on the air or that big newspapers can pay attention to. Okay, so there is a lot of space out there for stories that don’t make the national news agenda. But just because you might not be seeing it or hearing about it doesn’t mean other news isn’t happening.



Sometimes it takes days for an important story to work its way from the local level, through state and regional press and to the national level – if it ever does. It’s a big country and an even bigger world and one of the things we’re going to try to do for you from time to time is help keep you informed with some of the stories that are not being covered by the bigger outlets but that deserve some attention nonetheless.



It’s gotten a little notice but not as much as the ongoing San Francisco Chronicle series should be receiving. The series of reports on the probability and preparations for a major earthquake in the Bay area is eerily reminiscent of a similar series the New Orleans Times-Picayune ran about possible hurricane damage way back in 2002. In more uplifting news, the Columbia (SC) State details a remarkably smooth operation in that town in dealing with an influx of Katrina evacuees.



The St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes the surge in scooter sales in response to higher gas prices. The Hartford Courant profiles a local leader of next month’s planned Millions More march, a follow-up to 1995’s Million Man march.



The Los Angeles Times previews the next generation of parking meters being rolled out in some CA locals – and possibly soon to a busy street near you. The Orlando Sentinel has a special interest in NASA’s Monday announcement of its plan to return to the moon with manned spaceflight – and then on to Mars. It's a story that received coverage elsewhere, but has special significance to people in that area.



And the Seattle Post-Intelligencer tells us how a Microsoft benefit helped almost 800 employees to lose 26,000 pounds.

Read full post…