All Blog Posts from Political Hotsheet

A recent CBS News Poll suggests there may be some cracks in support among a group that was instrumental in bringing Barack Obama to the White House – independents.

According to a CBS News Poll conducted November 13-16, a declining percentage of independents now approve of the way Mr. Obama is handling his overall job as president as well as some key policy areas compared to last month.

Even though more independents continue to approve (45 percent) than disapprove (40 percent) of the president's overall job performance, the percentage that approves is down 7 points from last month, and the number that disapproves is up 5 points.

In February 2009, when CBS News took its first measure of the president's job rating, 56 percent of independents approved of the job he was doing and that number soared to 65 percent as Mr. Obama marked his 100 days in office. Support for the president among independents has mostly declined since then.



The latest CBS News Poll finds that independents give Mr. Obama his lowest approval rating on his handling of Afghanistan. Just 30 percent approve of the way he is handling that conflict, down 14 points from October. In addition, 71 percent of independents think the war is going badly, up from 48 percent in September. Sixty-nine percent of Americans overall say the war in Afghanistan is going badly for the U.S.

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More Americans than ever believe the war in Afghanistan is going badly for the United States, a new CBS News poll finds.

Sixty-nine percent now say things are going badly for the U.S. in Afghanistan, a sharp increase from the 53 percent who said so in September. Just 23 percent say things are going well, down 12 points from September.

The findings reflect the most negative assessment of the war ever measured in CBS News polls.

Special Report: Afghanistan

Assessments have declined in particular among Republicans and independents. In September, 47 percent of Republicans thought the war was going well for the U.S.; that figure has now fallen to 27 percent. Among independents, positive assessments of the war have fallen from 34 percent in September to 21 percent.

The new poll also suggests that Americans have become increasingly skeptical about President Obama's handling of Afghanistan. Just 38 percent now approve of the president's performance on Afghanistan, down from 43 percent in October and 58 percent in April. Forty-three percent disapprove, an increase of nine points from last month.

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The Obama administration appears to be going against public opinion with its decision to try five terrorist suspects – including self-proclaimed Sept. 11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed – in a civilian trial in New York City.

A new CBS News poll finds that only 40 percent of Americans believe suspected terrorists should be tried in an open criminal court. Fifty-four percent say such suspects should be tried in a closed military court.

There is a correlation between where people stand on the trials and their political beliefs. Roughly six in ten Republicans and independents favor closed military trials, while 54 percent of Democrats prefer open civilian trials.

Read the Complete Poll

The suspects have been held at the Guantanamo Bay prison facility, which the Obama administration has promised to close. Americans have become increasingly resistant to doing so, according to the poll: fifty percent now say the facility should be kept open, while 39 percent back the administration's plan to close it.

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A slim majority of Americans believe the U.S. military had information that could have prevented the shootings at Fort Hood Army post, a new CBS News poll finds.

Fifty-one percent of Americans say the military had sufficient information to prevent the shootings, while 29 percent say it did not. Another 20 percent are not sure.

Republicans and independents were slightly more likely than Democrats to say the military had sufficient information, though the percentages were relatively stable across the political spectrum.

Forty-eight percent of Americans – including 65 percent of Republicans – deem the shootings an act of terrorism, while 38 percent say it was not terrorism. Fourteen percent say they don't know if the attack, allegedly carried out by Army Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan, was terrorism.

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President Obama spoke at a memorial service for those killed in the attack, and he gets relatively high marks for his performance in the wake of the incident. Fifty-seven percent say they approve of how Mr. Obama dealt with the shootings, while just 18 percent disapprove. One in four aren't sure how they feel.

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Americans would strongly prefer a health care bill that includes a public option to a bill without it, a new CBS News poll shows, and only one in four say their preference is no health care legislation at all.

However, most Americans remain doubtful that the proposals currently before Congress would help them personally, according to the poll, conducted Nov. 13 -16. And amid a debate over restricting abortion coverage in the health care bill, more than half say federal subsidies for health care plans should not be allowed to pay for abortions.


The Public Option

When asked what kind of health care bill Congress should pass, 51 percent of Americans said a bill that contains a government-run health insurance plan, or "public option." Sixteen percent said a bill without a public option, while only 26 percent said they want no bill at all. Seven percent did not know or had no answer.

Democrats (by 72 percent to 13 percent) and independents (by 47 percent to 15 percent) prefer a bill with a public option over a bill without one. Among Republicans, just 23 percent want a public option, 20 percent want a bill without it, and 51 percent want no health care reform bill at all.

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She may be among the biggest names in politics at the moment, but former Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin is not exactly America's sweetheart.

Just 23 percent of those surveyed in a new CBS News poll have a favorable view of the former Alaska governor. That matches her favorable rating in July, when Palin announced she was resigning from her job as governor.

Thirty-eight percent, meanwhile, have an unfavorable view of Palin -- also roughly matching her July rating. Another 37 percent say they are undecided or haven't heard enough, despite the spotlight on Palin in recent days tied to the imminent publication of her memoir, "Going Rogue."

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The election may still be three years away, but it seems it’s never too early to speculate: A USA Today/Gallup poll sizing up the potential 2012 Republican presidential candidates was released today. Taking the top spot? Former Arkansas governor (and 2008 presidential hopeful) Mike Huckabee.

The poll found that the top four Republican contenders for the presidential nomination are Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich. Seventy-one percent of declared Republicans would "seriously consider" voting for Huckabee, 65 would consider voting for Romney and for Palin, and 60 percent would consider voting for Gingrich.

Among Americans overall, the order remains the same: Huckabee leads, with 40 percent saying they would seriously consider voting for him. Romney closely follows with 39 percent. He’s followed by Palin with 33 percent and Gingrich with 29 percent.

The results suggest that the identity of Obama's 2012 opponent will rest largely on who is selected by "the Republic faithful," even in states with open primaries. No more than 20 percent of Democrats and no more than 40 percent of independent voters say they would consider voting for any one candidate.

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The Republican challenger Chris Christie narrowly defeated Democrat Jon Corzine in the race for New Jersey governor. Christie is the first Republican to be elected governor of New Jersey since Christie Whitman was elected in 1993.

New Jersey's Jon Corzine was the only governor who was up for re-election this year and heading into this contest, Corzine was facing an unhappy electorate anxious about taxes, the economy, and dissatisfied with his job performance.

A reliably blue state for years when it comes to presidential politics, Barack Obama coasted to victory here last November, besting John McCain by 15 points.

New Jersey's electorate was older and slightly more conservative than last year. Voters were looking for change, but while change represented the Democrat, Barack Obama a year ago, New Jersey voters saw Christie, the Republican, as the change agent this time around.

Christie received strong support from the traditional Republican base: 82 percent of conservatives backed him, as did 91 percent of self-identified Republicans.

But independents were key to his victory. They made up 28 percent of the electorate and backed Christie over Corzine by 60 percent to 30 percent. Corzine's performance among independents was 21 points lower than Mr. Obama's last fall when 51 percent of New Jersey independents backed him. Also moderates, who made up 45 percent of the electorate, narrowly backed Christie by 48 percent to 45 percent. Mr. Obama won the support of New Jersey moderates last year.

Governor Corzine held his own among his base, getting the backing of 86 percent of Democrats, 83 percent of liberals, and 88 percent of black voters. Corzine also won the support of 57 percent of young voters, but voters age 18 to 29 represented just nine percent of the electorate. On Election Day 2008, 17 percent of New Jersey voters were under age 30.

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Updated 2:25 a.m. ET, Nov. 2009

Republican Bob McDonnell defeated Democrat R. Creigh Deeds today in his bid to wrest control of the Virginia governor's mansion from Democratic control, continuing a long Virginia tradition going back to 1977 of voting for a governor from the opposing party of the sitting president.

Virginia Attorney General Bob McDonnell won in Virginia by shoring up support among Republicans, conservatives, evangelicals, by being competitive among moderates, lower income voters, and the younger voters who showed up to the polls, and by garnering the support of independents. McDonnell also benefitted from a decline in turnout among so-called "surge" voters from 2008 – namely African Americans and voters under thirty.

Both candidates won nearly all the votes of members of their respective parties, but McDonnell took a decisive 66 percent majority of the independent vote – a group that was divided between Barack Obama and John McCain in 2008.

McDonnell's victory in this off-year election has as much to do with who didn't vote as who did. African Americans broke overwhelmingly for Deeds, there weren't enough of them. Though African Americans made up 20 percent of voters in 2008, they made up just 16 percent of voters today in Virginia. Voters under 30 made up only 10 percent of the voters in Virginia – half the percentage that turned out in 2008 – and more than half of those who did turn out voted for McDonnell. In the 2008 election for president six in 10 voters under 30 picked Barack Obama.

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This post was written by CBS News' Jennifer DePinto and Fred Backus. It was updated at 2:20 a.m. ET, Nov. 4, 2009

As voters in Virginia and New Jersey headed to the polls today to elect their governors, Americans across the country were watching these off-year races for implications about the nation's mood heading into 2010.

In Virginia, Republican Bob McDonnell and Democrat R. Creigh Deeds are battling to succeed the term-limited sitting governor Tim Kaine in what is widely viewed as a potential swing state in the future. In New Jersey, Democrat Jon Corzine is the only incumbent governor in the country to face a re-election challenge this year against Republican Chris Christie and independent Chris Daggett.

A majority of voters in both states said they are worried about the direction of the nation’s economy over the next year. 85 percent of Virginia voters said they are worried, as are 89 percent of voters in New Jersey. These percentages were similar on Election Day in 2008.

In both states the economy topped the list of issues that mattered most to voters in their choice for governor – in Virginia health care was second, while in New Jersey the second choice was property taxes.

And what about the Obama factor? President Obama campaigned for both the Democratic gubernatorial candidates, even visiting New Jersey as recently as Sunday to stump for Jon Corzine.

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