All Blog Posts from Political Hotsheet

The Republican challenger Chris Christie narrowly defeated Democrat Jon Corzine in the race for New Jersey governor. Christie is the first Republican to be elected governor of New Jersey since Christie Whitman was elected in 1993.

New Jersey's Jon Corzine was the only governor who was up for re-election this year and heading into this contest, Corzine was facing an unhappy electorate anxious about taxes, the economy, and dissatisfied with his job performance.

A reliably blue state for years when it comes to presidential politics, Barack Obama coasted to victory here last November, besting John McCain by 15 points.

New Jersey's electorate was older and slightly more conservative than last year. Voters were looking for change, but while change represented the Democrat, Barack Obama a year ago, New Jersey voters saw Christie, the Republican, as the change agent this time around.

Christie received strong support from the traditional Republican base: 82 percent of conservatives backed him, as did 91 percent of self-identified Republicans.

But independents were key to his victory. They made up 28 percent of the electorate and backed Christie over Corzine by 60 percent to 30 percent. Corzine's performance among independents was 21 points lower than Mr. Obama's last fall when 51 percent of New Jersey independents backed him. Also moderates, who made up 45 percent of the electorate, narrowly backed Christie by 48 percent to 45 percent. Mr. Obama won the support of New Jersey moderates last year.

Governor Corzine held his own among his base, getting the backing of 86 percent of Democrats, 83 percent of liberals, and 88 percent of black voters. Corzine also won the support of 57 percent of young voters, but voters age 18 to 29 represented just nine percent of the electorate. On Election Day 2008, 17 percent of New Jersey voters were under age 30.

Read full post…

Republicans went two-for-two in Tuesday's gubernatorial races as Chris Christie pulled out an upset over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine.

How could this have happened in a state where Barack Obama defeated John McCain by 15.5 percent last year and where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 700,000?

Republicans were ecstatic over their Virginia victory; their joy over the New Jersey win is almost indescribable. Just a year after being trounced across the board, the GOP picks up a governor's seat in a solid Democratic state over an extremely well-funded incumbent.

"Chris Christie secured a major victory for the Republican Party tonight," Republican Governors Association Chairman Haley Barbour said in a statement. "Defeating a deep-pocketed incumbent in a Democratic state like New Jersey is a tremendous accomplishment and signals the beginning of the GOP's comeback."

But before declaring a GOP comeback and assigning blame to President Obama and national Democrats, don't forget that Corzine's downfall has been festering - independent of national trends - for the past 18 months; his approval rating began to tank in 2008 – in the middle of a historically successful year for national Democrats.

Corzine's unpopularity going into Tuesday's election cannot be underestimated. The target of blame for the state's financial problems and high property taxes, Corzine's approval rating has consistently been in the high 30s to low 40s – since mid-2008.

And not one poll during the gubernatorial race this year showed Corzine with more than 43 percent support.

Simply put, New Jersey voters have been looking at other options for a while.

Read full post…

Updated 2:09 a.m. ET, Nov. 4, 2009

Republican Chris Christie has won the race for governor in New Jersey over Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine and independent Chris Daggett.

As for reasons as to why Corzine lost, CBS News political director Steve Chaggaris notes that his popularity has been dropping for a while.

"Corzine's unpopularity going into Tuesday's election cannot be underestimated," he wrote in his analysis of the race. "Simply put, New Jersey voters have been looking at other options for a while."

Looking at exit polls, independents made up 28 percent of the electorate and backed Christie over Corzine by 60 percent to 30 percent.

As New Jersey nears election day, its two main gubernatorial candidates are statistically tied, according to the latest polls.

A Quinnipiac University poll released today showed Republican candidate Chris Christie winning with 42 percent of the vote, with Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine trailing him at 40 percent, the New Jersey Star-Ledger reports. The difference falls within the poll's 2.5 percent margin of error. Independent candidate Chris Daggett carried 12 percent of the vote.

Meanwhile, a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll also released today also showed Corzine winning with 43 percent of the vote while Christie trailed at 41 percent -- a difference within this poll's 3 percent margin of error. Daggett stood at 8 percent.

It is generally believed Daggett is siphoning votes away from Christie. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin alluded to as much when she took a shot at Daggett on her Facebook page yesterday, writing, "I've never even suggested he should drop out of the race. But, come to think of it…"

New Jersey Republicans today accused state Democrats of trying to push more wayward Republicans toward Daggett with a robocall, the Star-Ledger reports.

Read full post…

If you believe everything you read, next Tuesday's gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and the special congressional election in upstate New York will be not only be a status-check for voters' moods about President Obama, but they will be predictors of what will happen in 2010 and 2012.

In reality, however, while the results of these elections will provide plenty of data for both parties as they look to the future, it's a stretch to call them bellwethers of future elections.

Next week's contests are like preseason NFL games: you'll get a sense of how your team looks right now with an opportunity to analyze the results and make adjustments for the future. But an undefeated record - or even a mixed one - in off-year 2009 (or in preseason football) doesn't necessarily reflect what the regular-season record will look like.

Take Virginia for example.

Until this week, a common theory is that because Virginia is now a true purple state (Democrats have won statewide races consistently since 2001, Mr. Obama was the first Democrat to win there since 1964 in a presidential election), somehow the race between Democrat Creigh Deeds (at left in the picture) and Republican Bob McDonnell (at right) is a referendum on the president.

Well, a Washington Post poll out Monday,/lnik> showed that 70 percent of likely Virginia voters said that President Obama is "not a factor" in which candidate they're voting for governor.

There are plenty of reasons other than the president as to why Deeds is now trailing McDonnell by double-digits: Deeds has had trouble explaining his position on state taxes; McDonnell has successfully targeted independents by running on the issues of taxes and transportation, not social issues; and Democrats that were excited about Mr. Obama's candidacy in 2008 are not as excited about a gubernatorial race in an off-year and are expected to sit this one out.

Read full post…

Updated 6:32 p.m. ET

With the election just eight days away, a Suffolk University poll out Monday finds that incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine has opened up a nine-point lead over Republican rival Chris Christie in the race for New Jersey governor.

The poll also finds support for independent Chris Daggett, who has been considered a major factor in the race, at just seven percent.

Corzine and Christie have been in a dead heat in recent days – an Associated Press poll less than a week ago showed them tied – but momentum has lately been with Corzine, who seemed to be in serious trouble earlier this year, when polls showed he badly trailed the Republican in his largely Democratic state.

David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston, told New Jersey's Star-Ledger that Corzine's campaign "is peaking at the right time for him."

"The bottom line is that, if this trend holds, it will be an amazing comeback for Jon Corzine," he said. President Obama stumped for Corzine last week.

Christie, left, dismissed the poll, suggesting that the poll is an outlier and stating that he is "absolutely confident I'm going to win this thing."

And, indeed, perhaps the survey should be taken with a grain of salt: Suffolk included all 12 candidates on the ballot in its questioning, which is not something most pollsters do and would seem to benefit an incumbent with high name recognition.

And veteran New Jersey pollster Patrick Murray has also raised questions about the methodology, raising issues about the poll's likely voter model and party identification calculations.

Across the river from New Jersey, meanwhile, we find the New York City mayor's race, where the story has been pretty standard from day one: It's looking awfully good for Michael Bloomberg.

Read full post…

Democratic Virginia Gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds, who polls suggest is trailing Republican rival Bob McDonnell in a state won by President Obama last November, is doing everything he can to remind Virginia voters that he has Mr. Obama's backing.

Deeds' campaign today released a new ad that looks, at first, like an Obama campaign ad: The viewer hears inspiring words from Mr. Obama as optimistic music plays and Americans are shown looking directly at the camera. Eventually it becomes clear that it's actually an ad for Deeds, who is finally shown as Mr. Obama is heard endorsing him. (Watch above.)

Deeds needs to convince a sizable portion of Virginia's Democrats, who showed up in droves to elect Mr. Obama last year, to show up for an election at which Mr. Obama is not on the ballot. To help convince them ahead of the Nov. 3rd contest, he will be campaigning with the president next Tuesday in Norfolk – a city with a heavy African-American population in which voters overwhelmingly supported the president against Republican John McCain in the presidential election.

The other off-year gubernatorial race taking place this year is in New Jersey, where Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine is in a tight battle with Republican Chris Christie and independent Chris Daggett. The president will stump for Corzine this evening at a rally at Fairleigh Dickinson University; a loss by Corzine in heavily-Democratic New Jersey will likely be trumpeted by Republicans as evidence that they are gaining ground on the president's party after a pair of tough elections.

More: Can Obama Help Corzine in New Jersey?

The president was also trotted out last night on behalf of Bill Owens, the Democratic candidate running for New York's 23rd Congressional District. Mr. Obama headlined the fundraiser for Owens, but many political watchers were focused instead on Bill Thompson, the Democratic nominee for New York City mayor, who is facing off against heavily-favored incumbent Michael Bloomberg. (Another New York Democrat with a questionable relationship with the president, Governor David Paterson, didn't show up.)

Read full post…

President Obama is hitting the campaign trail tonight in New Jersey to stump for the state's incumbent Democratic Governor, Jon Corzine, who is locked in a tough re-election battle.

While some have characterized this race as referendum on Mr. Obama, recent polling may indicate that the New Jersey race for governor is about… well, New Jersey.

Mr. Obama, who won the Garden State by 15 points last November, remains popular here: 62 percent approve of the job he is doing as president according to the latest New York Times Poll.

As for Corzine, he receives only a 33 percent approval rating from New Jersey residents.

Independents are a key group in almost any election and most New Jersey independents (63%) approve of the job Mr. Obama is doing as president, but only 25% of this group likes the way Governor Corzine is handling his job. And while the incumbent Governor receives a 56% approval rating among Democrats, that is 49 points lower than the approval rating Democrats in New Jersey give Mr. Obama (85%).



Will Mr. Obama's popularity translate into votes? Well, at this point, two in three New Jersey voters say the President's endorsement of Mr. Corzine will make no difference in their vote.

Read full post…

Politics Today is CBSNews.com's inside look at the key stories driving the day in politics, written by CBS News Political Director Steve Chaggaris:

** Obama and Bill Clinton stump for Corzine and Deeds...

** Pelosi pushes for a liberal public option...

** Karzai agrees to a runoff...

2009 RACES: President Obama continues his role as campaigner in chief today in New Jersey where he'll stump with Gov. Jon Corzine, D-N.J., who's locked in a tight re-election battle. New Jersey is one of two states holding gubernatorial elections on Nov. 3 – Virginia is the other – and Democrats feel the Garden State offers their best shot at winning. Today's 6pm rally at Fairleigh Dickinson University marks the president's second visit on behalf of Corzine; next Tuesday, Mr. Obama will do the same for Virginia Democrat Creigh Deeds.

Tuesday, Corzine "showcased a popular ex-president, Republican Chris Christie sat at a kitchen table talking taxes and independent Chris Daggett said the nasty tone of the race is driving voters to his side," reports the Newark Star-Ledger.

Corzine "was boosted in two rallies by former President Bill Clinton, the latest in a lineup of Democratic Party rock stars sweeping across New Jersey in support of the incumbent."

"'If these were the real choices in normal times, this would be a runaway election for the governor, wouldn’t it?' Clinton said to a crowd of about 1,100 in Collingswood. 'The only reason it’s not a runaway election is people are hurting.'"

In Virginia, President Clinton also stumped for Democrat Creigh Deeds, though Politico's Jonathan Martin and Andy Barr suggest his comments in praise of Deeds may have been ill-advised.

Read full post…

With 2009's Election Day just two weeks away, two state gubernatorial races are going down to the wire. Three new polls were released on the races today, showing a clear frontrunner in the upcoming Virginia election and a neck-and-neck race in New Jersey.

One poll, conducted by Clarus Research Group, shows that Virginians favor Republican candidate Bob McDonnell over his Democratic opponent, Creigh Deeds, by an eight point margin. McDonnell, who holds 49 percent of voters in the poll to Deeds' 41 percent, is up from 42 points in September (when he led Deeds by five points).

"So far in the general election, Deeds has failed to gain sustained momentum," said Ron Faucheux, president of Clarus. "Over the past five weeks, McDonnell has expanded his lead as he's weathered attacks on his record as a social conservative… While anything can happen between now and Election Day, the fundamentals favor McDonnell."

The poll results also showed that voters' primary reason for voting for Deeds is his political party, while McDonnell's supporters will vote for him primarily because they like him personally.

Read full post…