All Blog Posts from Political Hotsheet

A recent CBS News Poll suggests there may be some cracks in support among a group that was instrumental in bringing Barack Obama to the White House – independents.

According to a CBS News Poll conducted November 13-16, a declining percentage of independents now approve of the way Mr. Obama is handling his overall job as president as well as some key policy areas compared to last month.

Even though more independents continue to approve (45 percent) than disapprove (40 percent) of the president's overall job performance, the percentage that approves is down 7 points from last month, and the number that disapproves is up 5 points.

In February 2009, when CBS News took its first measure of the president's job rating, 56 percent of independents approved of the job he was doing and that number soared to 65 percent as Mr. Obama marked his 100 days in office. Support for the president among independents has mostly declined since then.



The latest CBS News Poll finds that independents give Mr. Obama his lowest approval rating on his handling of Afghanistan. Just 30 percent approve of the way he is handling that conflict, down 14 points from October. In addition, 71 percent of independents think the war is going badly, up from 48 percent in September. Sixty-nine percent of Americans overall say the war in Afghanistan is going badly for the U.S.

Read full post…

The Republican challenger Chris Christie narrowly defeated Democrat Jon Corzine in the race for New Jersey governor. Christie is the first Republican to be elected governor of New Jersey since Christie Whitman was elected in 1993.

New Jersey's Jon Corzine was the only governor who was up for re-election this year and heading into this contest, Corzine was facing an unhappy electorate anxious about taxes, the economy, and dissatisfied with his job performance.

A reliably blue state for years when it comes to presidential politics, Barack Obama coasted to victory here last November, besting John McCain by 15 points.

New Jersey's electorate was older and slightly more conservative than last year. Voters were looking for change, but while change represented the Democrat, Barack Obama a year ago, New Jersey voters saw Christie, the Republican, as the change agent this time around.

Christie received strong support from the traditional Republican base: 82 percent of conservatives backed him, as did 91 percent of self-identified Republicans.

But independents were key to his victory. They made up 28 percent of the electorate and backed Christie over Corzine by 60 percent to 30 percent. Corzine's performance among independents was 21 points lower than Mr. Obama's last fall when 51 percent of New Jersey independents backed him. Also moderates, who made up 45 percent of the electorate, narrowly backed Christie by 48 percent to 45 percent. Mr. Obama won the support of New Jersey moderates last year.

Governor Corzine held his own among his base, getting the backing of 86 percent of Democrats, 83 percent of liberals, and 88 percent of black voters. Corzine also won the support of 57 percent of young voters, but voters age 18 to 29 represented just nine percent of the electorate. On Election Day 2008, 17 percent of New Jersey voters were under age 30.

Read full post…

President Obama is hitting the campaign trail tonight in New Jersey to stump for the state's incumbent Democratic Governor, Jon Corzine, who is locked in a tough re-election battle.

While some have characterized this race as referendum on Mr. Obama, recent polling may indicate that the New Jersey race for governor is about… well, New Jersey.

Mr. Obama, who won the Garden State by 15 points last November, remains popular here: 62 percent approve of the job he is doing as president according to the latest New York Times Poll.

As for Corzine, he receives only a 33 percent approval rating from New Jersey residents.

Independents are a key group in almost any election and most New Jersey independents (63%) approve of the job Mr. Obama is doing as president, but only 25% of this group likes the way Governor Corzine is handling his job. And while the incumbent Governor receives a 56% approval rating among Democrats, that is 49 points lower than the approval rating Democrats in New Jersey give Mr. Obama (85%).



Will Mr. Obama's popularity translate into votes? Well, at this point, two in three New Jersey voters say the President's endorsement of Mr. Corzine will make no difference in their vote.

Read full post…

As the United States marks eight years of military engagement in Afghanistan, a majority of Americans think that war is going badly for the U.S. and they are divided on whether the United States is doing the right thing by being involved there now.

This is a reversal from October 2001, when the U.S. began military action in Afghanistan. With the country still reeling from the September 11th attacks, support for military action in Afghanistan was high and broad. Ninety percent of Americans approved of it, including solid majorities of both Democrats and Republicans.


CBSNews.com Special Report: Afghanistan



But eight years later the country is split on U.S. involvement in Afghanistan, according to a CBS News/New York Times Poll conduced September 19-23. Forty-seven percent say the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting there, but 42 percent think the U.S. should not be involved. And there is a partisan divide now; most Republicans say the U.S. is doing the right thing, while most Democrats disagree. Independents are divided.

Read full post…

When President Obama delivered his speech on health care to a joint session of Congress in early September, he talked of the need for health care reform as a moral obligation. He quoted a letter written by the late Sen. Edward Kennedy: "What we face is above all a moral issue; at stake are not just the details of policy, but fundamental principles of social justice and the character of our country."

The latest CBS News/New York Times Poll, conducted September 19-23, finds that Americans divide on whether or not the federal government has a moral responsibility to guarantee health care for everyone: 47 percent say the government does, while 48 percent believe it does not.

CBSNews.com Special Report: Health Care

Most age groups split on this question, with the exception of those age 65 and over. While seniors are eligible for Medicare -- a health program administered by the government – 55 percent of them do not think the government has a moral responsibility to guarantee health coverage for all Americans. Seniors also give Mr. Obama his lowest ratings on health care of any age group. Just 38 percent of them approve.

In terms of gender, half of women consider providing health care to everyone to be a moral responsibility, while 53 percent of men oppose that view.

Read full post…

Sen. Edward Kennedy, the youngest brother of President John F. Kennedy and the third longest-serving Senator in U.S. history, had been a polarizing figure in American politics.

In a CBS News/New York Times poll conducted in August 2008, Americans voters were divided in their opinion of him: 34 percent held a favorable opinion, while 33 percent viewed him unfavorably. Not surprisingly, the Massachusetts Senator was more popular with Democrats than Republicans.

The poll was taken just before the 2008 Democratic convention where Sen. Kennedy delivered a speech supporting Barack Obama and talked of his signature issue, health care:

CBSNews.com Special Report: Ted Kennedy

"And this is the cause of my life -- new hope that we will break the old gridlock and guarantee that every American -- north, south, east, west, young, old -- will have decent, quality health care as a fundamental right and not a privilege."

CBS NEWS/NYT POLL - AUGUST 2008 (registered voters)
Opinions of Sen. Kennedy were more positive in 2008 compared to 1995. Back in 1984, views of him were divided much as they are now. More voters viewed him negatively than positively back in September 1980, shortly after his unsuccessful run for the presidency.

Read full post…

As the people of Afghanistan head to the polls today, Americans remain pessimistic about how things are going for the U.S. in that country.

According to a recent CBS News/New York Times Poll (July 24-28, 2009), only a third of Americans think the war in Afghanistan is going well for the U.S. Most – 57 percent - say the war is going badly. Six U.S. troops were killed in Afghanistan on Wednesday and last month was the deadliest for U.S. forces in Afghanistan since the war began.

Assessments of the war in Afghanistan are markedly more negative now than at the early stages of the conflict. In October 2001, when the war began, 83 percent of Americans said things were going well for the U.S. there, reaching a high of 93 percent in December of that year.

It was a different story seven years later. Only 27 percent said U.S. efforts in Afghanistan were going well in December 2008 –- an all-time low. Since the start of this year, the percentage who says the war is going well has hovered in the 30s.

Majorities of both Republicans (56 percent) and Democrats (58 percent) think the war in Afghanistan is going badly for the United States.

Read full post…

As Congress takes their summer recess, the debate over health care reform has certainly not taken a vacation. Recent polling by CBS News takes a look at views on health care reform among two groups: "the haves" (those who have insurance) and "the have nots" (those without it).

Even though these groups find themselves in different situations regarding their own health care, they actually agree on many aspects of the reform proposals. Still, insured Americans, who are generally satisfied with their coverage, are a bit more skeptical than those who are now uninsured.

Two CBS News surveys were combined for this analysis in order to yield larger sample sizes. One was conducted in June, the other in July.

Generally, most Americans think the country's current health care system is at least in need of fundamental change, with nearly half (46 percent) of those without health coverage saying the whole system needs to be rebuilt.

Americans who are currently insured favor reform, but more think major changes (52 percent) are needed rather than a completely rebuilt system (30 percent).



More specifically, when asked whether keeping costs down or covering the uninsured is a more serious problem, 55 percent of those with insurance say the number of uninsured Americans is more serious, but that number rises to 74 percent among those who are currently without health care coverage.

Those with health insurance are more than twice likely as those without it to say controlling costs is a more serious problem.

Read full post…

Today marks six months since Barack Obama was sworn in as the 44th President of the United States and according to the latest CBS News Poll, conducted July 9-12, 2009, his overall approval rating stands at 57 percent - his first approval rating below 60 percent and his lowest since becoming president.

How does this compare to past presidents?

At 57 percent, President Obama's approval is slightly higher than that of his immediate predecessor, George W. Bush (53 percent) and 18 points higher than the last Democratic president, Bill Clinton (39 percent) at similar points in their presidencies.

Still, President Obama's current marks are lower than those given to some earlier presidents: George H.W. Bush (67 percent), Jimmy Carter (62 percent), John F. Kennedy (75 percent), and Dwight D. Eisenhower (73 percent).

His approval rating is similar to that of President Ronald Reagan (59 percent), whose early months in office were also plagued by the nation's economic troubles. (It should be noted, however, that the unsuccessful assassination attempt made on President Reagan's life just 69 days into his presidency may have had an impact on his rating.) President Richard Nixon received a similar approval rating six months into office as well.

Read full post…

According to the latest CBS News/New York Times Poll, views on what should happen to the nation's health care system are strongly tied to household income.

Americans with lower incomes want to see a major overhaul of the health care system in the U.S., greater government involvement, and more are willing than their higher-earning counterparts to pay more in taxes in order for all Americans to have health care coverage.

When asked their view of the current U.S. health care system, half of Americans earning less than $30,000 a year think there is so much wrong with the system that it needs to be completely rebuilt -- a higher percentage than any income group. Majorities of those earning more think fundamental changes to the system are needed but stop short of endorsing a totally rebuilt system.



By more than 3 to 1, Americans on the lower end of the income scale think the government would do a better job than private insurance companies on providing medical coverage. Fewer than half of those with higher incomes think the government would do a better job.



Still, majorities of all income groups do say the government should guarantee health insurance for all Americans, with those earning less money even more likely to support that.

Read full post…