McDonnell Won Due to Turnout, Independents
(AP )
Republican Bob McDonnell defeated Democrat R. Creigh Deeds today in his bid to wrest control of the Virginia governor's mansion from Democratic control, continuing a long Virginia tradition going back to 1977 of voting for a governor from the opposing party of the sitting president.
Virginia Attorney General Bob McDonnell won in Virginia by shoring up support among Republicans, conservatives, evangelicals, by being competitive among moderates, lower income voters, and the younger voters who showed up to the polls, and by garnering the support of independents. McDonnell also benefitted from a decline in turnout among so-called "surge" voters from 2008 – namely African Americans and voters under thirty.
Both candidates won nearly all the votes of members of their respective parties, but McDonnell took a decisive 66 percent majority of the independent vote – a group that was divided between Barack Obama and John McCain in 2008.
McDonnell's victory in this off-year election has as much to do with who didn't vote as who did. African Americans broke overwhelmingly for Deeds, there weren't enough of them. Though African Americans made up 20 percent of voters in 2008, they made up just 16 percent of voters today in Virginia. Voters under 30 made up only 10 percent of the voters in Virginia – half the percentage that turned out in 2008 – and more than half of those who did turn out voted for McDonnell. In the 2008 election for president six in 10 voters under 30 picked Barack Obama.
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