By Anthony Salvanto and Mark Gersh

(AP )
Public polls show Republican Bob McDonnell (at right in the picture) heads toward Election Day with a
lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds (at left), poised to take the Virginia governorship back from Democratic hands. A key question on Election Day will be which electorate shows up – and how much it resembles the one that in 2008 gave Barack Obama the first Democratic presidential win there in a generation.
"Off-year" electorates such as this one typically show lower turnout than midterms or presidential years (only 45 percent of registrants turned out for the last gubernatorial contest in 2005, compared to 75 percent who did in 2008) -- but it is the shape of the electorate that will matter just as much here, as well as what happens in a couple of key regions of the state that have led the state from reliably Republican to toss-up in recent years.
Specifically, watch the percent that is African-American – it was 20 percent in 2008, and reliably Democratic -- benefiting both Barack Obama and Mark Warner. Also watch the percent that is young. Last year, one in five voters was under age 30, and they went overwhelmingly for Mr. Obama as well.
Without Deeds getting strong turnout showings from both these groups, McDonnell could be set to capitalize on a relatively older and more conservative electorate much more favorable to a Republican.

(AP )
In 2008, moderates dominated the ballot box with 46 percent of voters over conservatives at 33 percent -- if that balance shifts or gets closer, with a higher proportion of conservatives, once again that sets up a winning scenario for McDonnell.
Perhaps the best-known regional component of the Democrats' recent winning "formula" for Virginia is the northern area of suburbs of Washington, where growing ranks of professionals and more moderate-to-liberal upper-income suburban voters have trended Democratic over the last decade or so, similar to a swing that's taken place in the Northeast and other high-growth areas of the country.
Centered around and beyond Fairfax county, this is a region that has given recent successful Democrats (including Mr. Obama, current Gov. Tim Kaine and Senator Sen. Warner) about six in ten of its votes in their wins. And as the region has grown, about one in five of all the state's votes have been cast there.
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