All Blog Posts from Political Hotsheet

It's only November, but fears over the H1N1 virus have already hit a fever pitch, with some Americans uneasy about their lack of access to a vaccine that's in relatively short supply.

There are signs, however, that H1N1 may turn out to be less deadly than many feared. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) released a report last week which shows similarities between H1N1 and other strains circulating in the population since 1988. According to the NIH, healthy adults may have a degree of immunity that can blunt the severity of an H1N1 infection.

Quest Diagnostics, which provides clinical laboratory services globally, also released a report last Friday stating that rates of infection by the H1N1 virus may have peaked in late October due to the impact of H1N1 vaccinations and changes in physician test-ordering practices.

So how bad is this pandemic really turning out to be? Some medical experts are calling for officials to inform the public that, despite the hype, the worst-case scenario has not, and likely will not, come to pass.

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This weekend President Barack Obama declared the H1N1 outbreak a national emergency, a move that should help hospitals deal with the surge of patients.

Many people across the country spent their weekend standing in line for hours waiting to get vaccinated against H1N1, and many found that they were too late, turned away when available doses were gone.

As of today, about 16 million doses have been made available. CBS News medical correspondent Dr. Jennifer Ashton says it is doubtful whether the emergency declaration will have any impact on vaccine production.

On Monday Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius acknowledged the frustration of Americans waiting in lines for vaccinations. "I don't want to minimize the anxiety of a lot of parents who want to get their kids vaccinated, but we do have a vaccine that works.

"It works with everybody over ten years old with one dose, and the immune response hits more quickly than we anticipated, so actually as of today, we'll have about 16.5 million doses available throughout the country."

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On "Washington Unplugged" Wednesday, moderator Sharyl Attkisson spoke to Wall Street Journal reporter Alicia Mundy and Politico's Fred Barbash about a CBS News investigation finding that many people who were diagnosed “probable” or “presumed” to have 2009 H1N1 or "swine" flu actually did not have flu at all.

The three-month investigation found, based on state-by-state test results, that only a small fraction of cases that doctors flagged as most likely to be swine flu actually tested positive for swine flu at state labs. The vast majority of cases were negative.

Attkisson pointed out that those who think they might have had H1N1 "might mistakenly think they're immune, and might forgo the vaccine that they ought to have."

"And on the other hand, if you really have had it, the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] is saying go ahead and get the flu shot anyway because you're not sure – but that's using up a limited amount of vaccine when we're hearing there are shortages," she continued.

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A White House official tells CBS News that President Obama has yet to receive either his seasonal flu shot or the H1N1 vaccine.

The official says Mr. Obama plans to be inoculated, but wants to make sure that "high-risk folks in the White House" get their flu shots before him.

The official says the H1N1 vaccine isn't available yet, but Mr. Obama will get vaccinated once priority recipients are taken care of.

The White House announced today that the United States will share 10 percent of its H1N1 flu vaccine with other countries.

In a release, the Obama administration said it was taking the action in recognition of the fact that "diseases know no borders and that the health of the American people is inseparable from the health of people around the world."

The U.S. is taking the action in concert with Australia, Brazil, France, Italy, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. The vaccine will be made available to other countries on a rolling basis, as supplies become available, through the World Health Organization.

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The White House has dispatched the lovable Sesame Street resident Elmo to spread the word on ways to ward off the H1N1 flu, but for those who find the red, fluffy Muppet a little too soft, there's Dr. John D. Clarke -- the MD who can rap.

In a minute-long video, the Long Island doctor spits rhymes about washing one's hands and using hand sanitizer. Clarke is one of 10 finalists competing for a $2,500 prize from the Department of Health and Human Services for the best H1N1 prevention video. After picking the finalists from more than 200 entries, the HHS has opened up the final voting process to online viewers through Sept. 16.

Clarke's rap is catchy, but he has some stiff competition from the likes of a chorus of coughers who declare that the flu is "a lot worse than it sounds," a video featuring a "toothbrush prank" and a man who spends his day in a hazmat suit.

With the H1N1 vaccine still in development, the Obama administration is heavily promoting preventative measures to curb the spread of the flu.

Every American has a role to play in responding to the H1N1 flu virus, President Obama said today. During an afternoon statement in the Rose Garden of the White House, Mr. Obama had a message for people to prevent the spread of the disease: Wash your hands frequently, and cover your sneezes with your sleeve, not your hands.

"I don't want anybody to be alarmed, but I do want everybody to be prepared," the president said.

The new government push about H1N1 prevention also includes a new White House health advocate: Elmo, who started appearing in government public service announcements today. (Click here for more information on the Elmo PSA and to watch one.)

An effective H1N1 vaccine is in the works, Mr. Obama said, and a flu shot program should begin soon, which he said will be voluntary but "strongly recommended."

CBSNews.com Special Report: H1N1

However, getting vaccinated may be a bit tricky, Oren Cohen, the chief medical and scientific officer for the pharmaceutical services company Quintiles Transnational, explained to the Hotsheet. Quintiles is working on a number of new treatments for influenza.

Cohen said the earliest he estimates a significant number of doses of a vaccine could be available would be mid-October.

"I think this fall it's unlikely we're going to have enough supply of vaccine to go around to the entire population," he said.

Given that reality, Cohen said the Obama administration is responding appropriately by "thinking on their feet and making appropriate judgments as things play out."

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A fast-track approval process has been established for the H1N1 vaccine, with hopes that 20 million doses will be available by mid-October, meaning a vaccine might be licensed without standard safety-regulations. The questions raised is, are we racing to prepare for an emergency that isn't there?

On Washington Unplugged, CBS News Medical Correspondent Dr. Jennifer Ashton told CBS News' Sharyl Attkisson, "According to the WHO...about 30 to 50 percent of people who get infected with an influenze virus have mild or symptoms at all...The vast majority of people clear this on their own."

"I'm very concerned that what this is going to turn out to be is a repeat of the 1976 Swine Flu fiasco…I think there may be a little but of politics being played," adds National Vaccine Information Center's Barbara Loe Fisher, also a vaccine safety advocate.

Dr. Ashton and Fisher agree that there are potential risks to the H1N1 vaccine.

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President Barack Obama joined Mexican President Felipe Calderon and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper in declaring "deepened cooperation" in preparing for the resurgence of swine flu today.

In a statement released by the White House, the North American leaders said that they will "work together to ensure that we have effective strategies, grounded in the best available science" to address the H1N1 pandemic.

Mr. Obama, Calderon, and Harper met in Guadalajara, Mexico Monday to discuss issues facing their respective countries, including economic recovery and climate change in addition to the possible spread of swine flu in the fall.

The full statement is below:

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Health And Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, speaking from today's flu preparedness summit, said on "Washington Unplugged" today that there are currently about 1 million cases of H1N1 flu transmitting throughout the United States.

"This disease has not gone away," she told CBS News' Bob Orr. "In fact, it's spreading from state to state. We've got outbreaks in every state, in about 102 countries around the world."

"What we're watching very closely, though, is what happens next," Sebelius continued. "So far it hasn't been terrifically lethal…but we need to get prepared for what may happen later this fall."

Sebelius said there remained uncertainty as to the future, and that "we need to be prepared for the worst case scenario."

"We don't know what will happen with this brand new flu strain when it mixes with seasonal flu," she told Orr. Sebelius said a new vaccine to immunize people against H1N1, also known as swine flu, is being prepared, in addition to the standard seasonal flu vaccine, and that she hopes it will be ready later this year.

"We need to make sure it's safe, so the scientists will begin clinical tests this summer, testing to make sure we know the right dosage and we know it doesn't have adverse side effects," Sebelius said. "Assuming that all goes well…we're likely to launch a major vaccination program this fall, having flu vaccine available by mid-October."

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