All Blog Posts from Horserace

Following a split decision on Super Tuesday, the Clinton campaign appears to be trying to cast itself as the underdog for the Democratic presidential nomination.

In a conference call with reporters this morning, Clinton strategist Mark Penn repeatedly called Barack Obama the "establishment" candidate. Not long after, Obama said that thanks to the Clinton “political machine honed over two decades,” it is Clinton who should be considered the post-Super Tuesday frontrunner. “Two weeks ago we were a big underdog,” Obama said. “Now we are a slight underdog.”

There is also word from the Clinton campaign that Hillary Clinton is considering self-financing her campaign.* It's another piece of news that seems designed to shape the post-Super Tuesday media narrative. Frontrunners and establishment candidates generally don't need to pump their own money into their campaign, after all.

Why would Clinton, who was long seen as the inevitable Democratic nominee, want to claim the underdog mantle? It could have something to do with the fact that the votes to be held over the next couple of weeks, in states including D.C. and Hawaii, favor Obama.

If Clinton the "underdog" loses those races, it's a lesser blow than if Clinton the "frontrunner" does. The Clinton campaign is better positioned for the March contests, in which voters in states including Ohio and Texas go to the polls.

Clinton may address these questions at her 4 pm press conference in Arlington, VA today. One issue that could come up there are comments made by her husband Bill regarding self-financed campaigns back in December.

Discussing campaign finance reform, the former president noted that New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg could "spend a billion dollars and not miss it" on a presidential campaign.

Clinton then complained that the Supreme Court "seems determined to say that the wealthier have more right to free speech than the rest of us.”

“For example, they say you couldn’t stop me from spending all the money I’ve saved over the last five years on Hillary’s campaign if I wanted to, even though it would clearly violate the spirit of campaign finance reform,” he said.

*UPDATE: The Associated Press now confirms that Clinton "loaned her campaign $5 million late last month, at a time when she was struggling to keep up with Sen. Barack Obama's television advertising in Super Tuesday states."

After a Super Tuesday that put him significantly behind John McCain in the delegate count, Mitt Romney and his advisors are reportedly assessing their options today.

The Romney campaign had planned to advertise in the Washington D.C. and Baltimore markets in advance of the upcoming contests in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia next Tuesday, CNN reports. Now, the campaign is considering whether or not to move forward.

"As of early this AM it was a go," a campaign source told CNN, though an advisor admitted that "it is tough to saddle up" this morning.

After his Jan. 29th loss to McCain in Florida, Romney briefly considered not buying ads in Super Tuesday states, though he ultimately decided to do so. Electing not to advertise would have been a tacit admission that he believed his campaign, into which he has invested more than $35 million of his own money, had become a lost cause.

Meanwhile, Politico reports that the McCain campaign is arguing that Romney's bid is indeed a lost cause. In a memo, McCain strategist Charlie Black suggests "the math is nearly impossible for Mitt Romney to win the nomination."

"The remaining contests account for roughly 963 delegates," Black writes. "For Mitt Romney to match our delegate [count], he would have to win more than 50% of those delegates." Black also notes that because many upcoming contests reward delegates proportionately, not on a winner-take-all basis, "Mitt will have to win by big margins in many states to garner every last delegate."

CBS News estimates that McCain presently has 677 delegates to Mike Huckabee's 159 and Romney's 152. 1,191 delegates are necessary to clinch the GOP nomination.

As the results came in last night, Romney vowed to continue his campaign.

“I think there’s some people who thought it was all going to be done tonight, but it’s not all done tonight,” Romney said. “We’re gonna keep on battling. We’re gonna go all the way to the convention. We’re gonna win this thing, and we’re gonna get in the White House.”

It’s going to be a long night, here’s a quick guide of when polls close in the various states this evening. West Virginia Republicans have already selected 18 delegates through a straw poll at its state convention. Mike Huckabee won them all by winning 52 percent of the vote on the second ballot. The delegate selection rules differ by party and state, check out this primer for more details and information.

7:00pm: Polls close in Georgia where both parties are holding contests. There are 87 delegates at stake for Democrats, 72 for Republicans. Georgia has no party registration, meaning any voter can participate in either party’s primary. This should be a big state for Barack Obama -- -in 2004, nearly half the Democratic primary electorate was made up of black voters. This will be a good test of where conservative voters are leaning among the Republican field.

8:00pm: This is the big one as polls close in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Kansas (Democrats only), Minnesota and Tennessee. There are a wide geographical variety of states at play here.

On the Democratic side, Obama’s home state closes at this hour as well as potential battlegrounds in Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Jersery and Delaware. Because of the proportional distribution rules of the Democrats, winning a majority of these states does not necessarily mean big delegate wins. Keep an eye on that delegate count as it begins to come in throughout the evening to get a better idea of where the race is. The big one to watch at this hour is Missouri, a critical general election state. Whoever “wins” the state will have a measure of bragging rights.

On the Republican side, we have some big winner-take all states that should give John McCain a jump-start on the evening. A northeast sweep by McCain in New Jersery, Connecticut and Delaware (and a hard-fought fight in Mitt Romney’s home state) would put McCain out front among delegates. Watch the southern states for signs of whether Huckabee is eating into Romney’s share of the conservative vote. And for Republicans, Missouri will also be one of the major battlegrounds of this hour, its winner-take-all rules will be a huge win for either McCain or Romney.

Minnesota and Kansas are caucus states and start at 8:00pm.

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Change may be all the rage in this presidential campaign but in the bigger picture, this election is just one more in a rather amazing series of political stories over the past decade or so.

To wit: In 1992, a Republican president who just a year earlier rode 90 percent approval ratings was thoroughly thrashed by a young Arkansas governor with a wandering eye, his “stand-by-my-man” spouse and a Texas billionaire with big fancy charts and bigger ears.

In 1994, Republicans reversed 40-some years of history by sweeping Democrats out of power in Congress. Four years later, those newly empowered leaders suffered a severe backlash when they decided to impeach that southern president for, well, that wandering eye. Two years after that, the nation went through a near-Constitutional crisis when the disputed results in Florida wound up having the winner declared by the Supreme Court.

Add in the worst terrorist attack in the nation’s history, an unpopular war and a natural disaster which unveiled the impotency of the federal government and it’s fair to say these past years have been historic.

This race fits right in, especially on the Democratic side which will produce either the first woman nominee of a major political party or the first black one. We even have the prospect of a former president (yes, that young guy from 1992) moving back into the White House.

No day is bigger than today, in terms of delegates up for grabs and the sheer number of states participating. But because of the proportional system of delegate allocation in the Democratic Party, neither candidate is likely to emerge with much more than an edge.

Would it surprise anyone if this battle went all the way to the convention? Political drama, it’s not much of a change anymore.

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Barack Obama campaign manager David Plouffe has released a memo to reporters attempting to lower expectations for Obama's performance on Super Tuesday.

"Two weeks ago, a Clinton campaign adviser told CBS News that they believed they could 'wrap up' the nomination on February 5th," he writes in his opening paragraph. "As the 'inevitable' national frontrunner, tomorrow should be the day when she sews up the nomination or builds a formidable delegate lead. But because of Obama’s growing momentum across the country, the Clinton campaign is now unlikely to reach their stated goals of wrapping up the nomination tomorrow."

That paragraph sets the tone for the rest of the memo, in which Plouffe argues that anything less than a resounding win for Clinton is a victory for Obama.

"Senator Clinton is certainly the favorite on February 5, given the huge leads she has held in many of these contests throughout the course of the campaign and the political, historical and geographic advantages she enjoys in many of these states," he writes.

A CBS News poll released yesterday shows that Clinton and Obama are now running about even nationally, though the former first lady holds a 49 percent to 31 percent lead in Super Tuesday states.

Plouffe writes that Clinton "should still win California," where she once led by double-digits, "but is unlikely to achieve her goal of getting a sizeable share of the delegates." Recent polls show a tightening race in California, though many residents mailed in their votes before Obama's momentum-generating South Carolina victory.

"We fully expect Senator Clinton to earn more delegates on February 5th and also to win more states," Plouffe continues. "If we were to be within 100 delegates on that day and win a number of states, we will have met our threshold for success and will be best positioned to win the nomination in the coming months."

Clinton senior strategist Mark Penn and press secretary Howard Wolfson held a conference call with reporters on the state of the race this afternoon. While they said the campaign is confident of winning a large number of diverse states and maintaining a delegate lead at the end of the night, they signaled they are already looking beyond tomorrow.

"The results are likely to be close and inconclusive," Wolfson said. "Right now, we are looking at a fight that will go on way beyond tomorrow." Wolfson said Democratic Party rules, which prohibit "winner take all" primaries, are the reason why. "The nominating rules of our party are designed to prolong a contest between two strong candidates."

Both Wolfson and Penn cited Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania as upcoming states friendly to Clinton. Pennsylvania holds its primary on April 22nd. Wolfson even raised the prospect that the nomination may not be decided until the convention in August.

Barack Obama campaign manager David Plouffe has released a memo to reporters attempting to lower expectations for Obama's performance on Super Tuesday.

"Two weeks ago, a Clinton campaign adviser told CBS News that they believed they could 'wrap up' the nomination on February 5th," he writes in his opening paragraph. "As the 'inevitable' national frontrunner, tomorrow should be the day when she sews up the nomination or builds a formidable delegate lead. But because of Obama’s growing momentum across the country, the Clinton campaign is now unlikely to reach their stated goals of wrapping up the nomination tomorrow."

That paragraph sets the tone for the rest of the memo, in which Plouffe argues that anything less than a resounding win for Clinton is a victory for Obama.

"Senator Clinton is certainly the favorite on February 5, given the huge leads she has held in many of these contests throughout the course of the campaign and the political, historical and geographic advantages she enjoys in many of these states," he writes.

A CBS News poll released yesterday shows that Clinton and Obama are now running about even nationally, though the former first lady holds a 49 percent to 31 percent lead in Super Tuesday states.

Plouffe writes that Clinton "should still win California," where she once led by double-digits, "but is unlikely to achieve her goal of getting a sizeable share of the delegates." Recent polls show a tightening race in California, though many residents mailed in their votes before Obama's momentum-generating South Carolina victory.

"We fully expect Senator Clinton to earn more delegates on February 5th and also to win more states," Plouffe continues. "If we were to be within 100 delegates on that day and win a number of states, we will have met our threshold for success and will be best positioned to win the nomination in the coming months."

Clinton senior strategist Mark Penn and press secretary Howard Wolfson held a conference call with reporters on the state of the race this afternoon. While they said the campaign is confident of winning a large number of diverse states and maintaining a delegate lead at the end of the night, they signaled they are already looking beyond tomorrow.

"The results are likely to be close and inconclusive," Wolfson said. "Right now, we are looking at a fight that will go on way beyond tomorrow." Wolfson said Democratic Party rules, which prohibit "winner take all" primaries, are the reason why. "The nominating rules of our party are designed to prolong a contest between two strong candidates."

Both Wolfson and Penn cited Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania as upcoming states friendly to Clinton. Pennsylvania holds its primary on April 22nd. Wolfson even raised the prospect that the nomination may not be decided until the convention in August.

If Super Tuesday is the Super Bowl of the 2008 presidential election, get ready for overtime. A new CBS News poll echoes what we've seen from other national and state-by-state surveys and that is that the Democratic race has become more or less a toss-up.

The poll shows Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama tied at 41 percent with just 14 percent of Democratic primary voters undecided. More and more, Super Tuesday is beginning to look like just one more day in a long and unpredictable contest, but the poll does have one encouraging piece of news – in those states voting tomorrow, she has a substantial 49 percent to 31 percent lead.

Some highlights from the poll:

Obama now leads among men, 46 percent to 34 percent. Last month, Clinton led by a 40 percent to 29 percent margin. Obama now has a slight edge among white men and has seen his support among that group of voters jump from 23 percent to 40 percent in the past month.

Clinton's supporters appear more solidly behind her candidacy, just 35 percent of those supporting her said they could change their minds before voting, compared to 42 percent of Obama supporters.

Obama has cut into Clinton's argument of electability, 41 percent say he is the most electable in a general election. Forty-six percent said Clinton is. That's a dramatic change just since December when just 14 percent said Obama was the most electable while 63 percent said Clinton.

Clinton is still perceived as the likely nominee. Despite who they are supporting personally, 45 percent said Clinton is most likely to win the Democratic nomination. Just 36 percent said Obama.

Bill Clinton trumps Ted Kennedy among Democratic primary voters, the poll suggests. While 70 percent say Bill Clinton's involvement in his wife's campaign makes no difference in their support, 18 percent said it makes them more likely to back her. Still, 12 percent said Kennedy's endorsement of Obama makes it more likely to support him.

And, despite the fact that 68 percent of Democratic primary voters see just minor policy differences between the two candidates, Clinton is seen as best able to manage the economy, by far the number one issue on voters' minds. By a 58 percent to 28 percent margin, Clinton was seen as better able to handle the economy.

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The Hillary Clinton campaign has released two new ads, "Free Fall,” and "Can Do," to be run in Super Tuesday states.

"Can Do," which you can see here, is a pretty typical political ad: Shots of everyday Americans, talk of turning the economy around, and Clinton saying "We are Americans, and together there's no problem we can't solve."

"Free Fall" is something else entirely. The spot opens with a shot of a skydiver plummeting to earth, arms flailing. "Our economy could be heading into freefall," an announcer says, as a newspaper headline with the word "recession" flashes across the screen.

"For millions of Americans, foreclosures, interest rates, and health care costs are spinning out of control," the announcer continues, as the skydiver keeps falling and words "stocks down," "unemployment" and "foreclosures" flash across the screen. "With your job and family security in the balance, the stakes have never been higher in choosing our new president."

And then: The skydiver opens his parachute. The music swells. People clap. "The person you can depend on to fix the economy and protect our future," the announcer says, as the image shifts to a shot of Clinton.

Last night we noted that Mitt Romney had yet to buy any advertising in Super Tuesday states. Today comes word that he will: CBS News confirms that the Romney campaign is making a “significant ad buy” in California and other Super Tuesday states. The price tag is in the seven figure range, and the governor’s decision to make the buy was made this morning.

Romney has spent perhaps $40 million of his own money on his campaign. Coming off losses to John McCain in Florida and South Carolina, the former Massachusetts governor has been debating how much money to invest in advertising before Super Tuesday. Had Romney elected not to advertise, it would have sent a signal that he did not believe he had a legitimate chance at beating out McCain for the GOP nomination.

The Associated Press notes that Romney is worth up to $250 million. He has said that he and his wife have agreed on a cap on personal spending, though he has not said what it is.

CBS News has learned that the Mitt Romney campaign has yet to purchase advertisements in the states where voters go to the polls on Feb. 5th, Super Tuesday. Romney, who has already sunk millions of dollars of his own money, is coming off a disappointing second-place finish in Florida.

According to the Associated Press, citing officials with knowledge of internal discussions, the Romney campaign "was not attempting to purchase television advertising time in any of the states on the Super Tuesday calendar." The AP says Romney plans to campaign in California and the other Super Tuesday states.