All Blog Posts from Horserace

As any political consultant can tell you, presidential campaigns are constantly trying to manage expectations. The reason is that if a candidate is expected to win a state by thirteen percentage points but only win by, say, three, the press coverage that follows can make that win feel more like a loss. On the flip side, a second-place finish can function boost a campaign even more than a win – if the candidate was supposed to finish fifth.

The expectations battle is presently being waged in South Carolina, a state that polls suggest Barack Obama will win easily. Hillary Clinton left the state this week to campaign in some of the states that will be voting on Feb. 5th – a move at least in part seemingly designed to lower expectations for her in South Carolina. But the Obama campaign doesn’t want a S.C. win to be discounted, so in an email today, Obama supporter Joe Erwin laid out how “Hillary Clinton going all out to win in South Carolina.”

Some of the evidenced offered up by Erwin:

• In the last week, the Clinton campaign nearly doubled their TV buy, expanding from spending about $236,000 on a mostly cable TV buy to more than $414,000 on wall-to-wall broadcast TV in every major market in the state.

• On Wednesday, the Clinton campaign launched a dishonest statewide radio ad falsely attacking Barack Obama. It’s the first negative ad aired by any Democratic presidential campaign in South Carolina this year.

• Public polling just a few weeks ago showed Hillary Clinton with a strong lead in South Carolina. (Clinton led Obama 45-31% in AP/Pew Research poll, November 7-25; Led 45-21% in ARG poll November 26-29; and led 42-34% in a CNN poll, December 9-12.) Now that her lead has evaporated, the Clinton campaign claims she can’t win here.

You can see the full memo here.

Bill Clinton saddled up for Hillary Clinton’s campaign again in South Carolina and had plenty to say about accusations from Barack Obama supporters that the Clinton camp has injected race into the race. He also had a few choice words for the press. Watch below (video courtesy CNN):

If the headlines inspire the questions at tonight's Democratic debate in South Carolina, expect former President Bill Clinton to come up nearly as often as Hillary Clinton, the one who's actually a candidate.

Bill Clinton's actions, both during his administration and on the campaign trail on behalf of Hillary, have become a central point of contention in the Democratic race, and Obama recently added fuel to the fire when he suggested that Clinton failed to "change the trajectory" of the country while president, but Ronald Reagan did.

An angrier, edgier side of the president "from a place called Hope" has emerged in recent weeks, starting with his comment just before the New Hamsphire primary comparing Obama's views on Iraq – or his whole campaign, depending on who you listen to – to a "fairy tale." The former president has also accused Obama's campaign and its supporters of dirty tricks ahead of Nevada's caucuses, and in general, the man known as "Big Dog" has taken on the role of attack dog for his wife's campaign.

Tonight's debate will likely keep the Clintons vs. Obama story in the headlines for at least a few more days, barring a "burying the hatchet" moment like we saw at the previous debate that brought an effective end to a racially charged back-and-forth over the role of Martin Luther King Jr. and Lyndon Johnson in the passage of civil rights legislation.

But such peacemaking is unlikely, given Obama's comments today on Bill Clinton's aggressive posture. Speaking to ABC News, the Illinois senator said Clinton "has taken his advocacy on behalf of his wife to a level that I think is pretty troubling," and said he would "directly confront Bill Clinton when he's making statements that are not factually accurate."

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CBS News Chief Political Consultant and Atlantic blogger Marc Ambinder reports that Magic Johnson has a new radio ad in South Carolina endorsing Hillary Clinton – and implying that Barack Obama is an untested rookie.

"My rookie year, we won our first game on a last second shot," Johnson says in the spot. "I was so hyped. But the captain of my team said, 'take it easy rookie, it’s a long season, it’s a long road to the championship.' He was right. Winning comes from years of hard work and preparation."

It's worth noting that, as Ambinder's skeptical commenters point out, Johnson's team won the NBA Championship his rookie season. You can listen to the spot here.

Looks like Mike Huckabee has the inside track on the pro-Confederate flag vote in South Carolina.

New radio ads airing in South Carolina during conservative talk shows praise Huckabee for calling disputes over the confederate flag an issue for the states, the Associated Press reports. South Carolina Republicans go to the polls Saturday.

"You don't like people from outside the state coming in and telling you what to do with your flag," Huckabee said in Myrtle Beach, S.C., on Thursday. "In fact, if somebody came to Arkansas and told us what to do with our flag, we'd tell 'em what to do with the pole, that's what we'd do."

The radio ads, from Americans for the Preservation of American Culture, also take aim at John McCain – he has been "calling the flag a racist symbol for years," one spot says – and Mitt Romney, who said "that flag shouldn't be shown" in a debate.

Huckabee, by contrast, "understands that all the average guy with a Confederate flag on his pickup truck is saying is he's proud to be a Southerner," according to one ad. "Mike Huckabee understands we value our heritage and why."

The flag flap is not the only social issue Huckabee finds himself involved with: He is taking heat for comments he made to beliefnet about gay marriage this week.

"I think the radical view is to say that we're going to change the definition of marriage so that it can mean two men, two women, a man and three women, a man and a child, a man and animal," Huckabee said.

David Smith of the gay rights group the Human Rights Campaign told CNN that Huckabee is "equating a loving marriage between two people of the same sex with some form of bestiality. I think that's really out of the mainstream of American thought, and most people will find that offensive."

In a campaign where the unexpected is the only certain bet, Nevada's caucuses tomorrow are a perfect illustration of this crazy political year. In what other year would an important nominating contest where the turnout estimates range from 20,000 to 100,000 seem so at home?

All bets are off in Nevada tomorrow as state Democrats gather in unfamiliar circumstances to add their voice to the fierce battle between Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards. Like so much else in this campaign, the advantages for one candidate seem clear and the outcome appears a safe bet.

Even as he was suffering a stunning setback in New Hampshire, Obama was getting the endorsement of Nevada's influential Culinary union, widely seen as the state's premier organizational tool in the caucuses. The state's teachers union has not endorsed but is considered to be in the Clinton camp. They filed a lawsuit after Obama napped the Culinary support to try and stop party rules which allow voters to caucus in casinos – where plenty of those union members work and can participate even while on the clock.

That suit was thrown out yesterday, clearing the way for what appears on the face of it to be an Obama win tomorrow. But don't bet the ranch. Nobody, it seems, has a handle on just what the cards will look like when they're finally dealt.

Union members are furious at the attempt. In a radio ad yesterday, the Culinary union began running a Spanish-language ad calling Clinton "shameless" for allowing supporters to file the lawsuit. "Hillary Clinton does not respect our people," the ad says. "Hillary Clinton supporters went to court to prevent working people to vote this Saturday - that is an embarrassment. Hillary Clinton supporters want to prevent people from voting in their workplace on Saturday. This is unforgivable!”

But both the Clinton and Obama campaigns have invested heavily in organization in the state. Obama may have the most powerful union but Clinton and Edwards have influential labor support of their own. And polls in the state indicate any one of the three could emerge with a win.

In 2004, when the state was relegated to a basically meaningless contest, just 9,000 Democrats turned out for the nominating caucuses. As many as ten times that number may participate tomorrow in over 500 locations to take part in a process which is difficult for even Iowans to navigate – and they have decades of experience doing it. They'll be showing up at more than 5,000 sites across the state. High stakes with low odds of predicting a winner. Sounds kind of like the perfect description of campaign '08.

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Fred Thompson's campaign, left for dead after a lackluster effort in last fall's run-up to Iowa and New Hampshire, is showing some signs of life in South Carolina. On the days of the New Hampshire primary, Thompson headed south and began digging in for what could be his last stand.

Is it paying off? Yes and no. According to the latest Palmetto Poll, conducted by the University of Clemson, Thompson remains in a distant fourth, garnering just 10 percent. John McCain leads the GOP race with 29 percent, Mike Huckabee gets 22 percent and Mitt Romney is third with 13 percent. In the August Palmetto Poll, Thompson led the field with 19 percent.

But while Thompson's poll numbers might not be soaring, his rhetoric has gotten sharper over these past ten days. Just yesterday, the former Tennessee senator took aim at each one of those currently ahead of him. Thompson accused Romney of pandering and said his approach to the economy is less-than conservative. "Romney was very effective in Michigan doing what he does best and that is tailoring his message to a particular audience," said Thompson. "He basically - as I could pick up with it - promised that the federal government was going to come in and bail out Michigan when he got elected president. Very conservative notion, don't you think?"

While taking it easier on his longtime friend McCain, Thompson still managed to get in a dig about his support for last year's failed immigration reform bill. "I knew that he was on the wrong track," he said of McCain. "And the American people said so and they rejected that bill." Thompson then took aim at Huckabee. "At least McCain's record's been out there for about 20 years. We've got some Johnny-come-latelies now that don't want to talk about their record and they're hoping there's not enough time for anybody to even to examine it, because where they've been in the past."

This is the feisty Thompson that has been on display at the most recent debates and it's made him a much different candidate than the laconic manner in which he carried himself throughout the fall and early winter. Despite the rejuvenation, it may be too little, too late even in an incredibly jumbled and unpredictable field.

But Thompson could prove to be a spoiler in the race. After finishing second in Michigan, McCain needs a win in South Carolina to reclaim the small burst of New Hampshire momentum which vaulted him to the top of national polls. Huckabee needs a victory in South Carolina to prove that his Iowa win was no fluke and that his claims of Southern appeal are solid. (Romney's win Tuesday takes some of the pressure off of him in a state that would be difficult for him under most circumstances). Between McCain and Huckabee, who does Thompson pull support from most?

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John McCain's losing 2000 campaign in South Carolina continues to follow him as he travels the state this time around.

At multiple events today in the state, protesters waved Confederate flags and passed out flyers as the candidate's bus arrived -- and one of the protesters asked the senator a question at an event, the Associated Press reports.

The protesters were against McCain's call in April 2000 (after the primary) for the flag to be removed from the top of the statehouse -- even though he sidestepped the question during his primary battle with George W. Bush. At the time, he said not taking the stance during the campaign was a "sacrifice of principle for personal ambition."

In an interview from a few months ago with Katie Couric that airs tonight on the CBS Evening News as part of the Primary Questions series, McCain also stood by his stance and called it the "worst advice" he had ever given himself.

"Probably the worst piece of advice I've ever given to myself was when the Confederate flag was flying over the state capitol in South Carolina," he said. "And I decided that I would say it's not an issue I should be involved in, that it should be decided by the people of the state of South Carolina. I knew it was a symbol that was offensive to so many people. And afterwards, I went back and apologized. But it was needless to say, by saying that I wouldn't have anything to do with an issue like that was an act of cowardice."

At the event today, after one of the questioners said he thought taking down the flag was wrong, McCain responded by saying he "could not be more proud of the majority of the people of this state'' who agreed the flag should be removed, according to the AP. He later told reporters, "I believe the issue has been resolved in the minds of the overwhelming majority of the people of South Carolina."

The McCain campaign is aggressively going after any negative attacks on the senator, trying its hardest not to have a repeat of 2000. Although he leads in polls following his New Hampshire win, he still has many critics in the state.

Read the other candidates' responses to the question on the worst advice they have ever given or received.

The good news is there are just three full days until the GOP primary in South Carolina. The bad news is there are three full days until the GOP primary in South Carolina.

The Palmetto State has long held the distinction of kingmaker for embattled GOP heavyweights. At one point or another, eventual nominees like George H. W. Bush, Bob Dole and George W. Bush had their candidacies revived by a firewall built by masterminds like Lee Atwater. Like many political tactics used to great success by the late strategist, the firewall wasn't always pretty, but more often than not it worked.

In 2008, the firewall isn't there, at least not for any one candidate. There is no front-runner on the ropes for it to save and the field is fragmented like never before. But the ugliness appears to be alive and well.

John McCain, who has blamed under-handed tactics for his loss in the state in 2000, has set up a rapid-response team this time around. Yesterday, that team went into action, publicly refuting a letter sent to newspapers in the state claiming that McCain provided military information as a POW in Vietnam in order to obtain special medical treatment. The charge was linked to an interview McCain gave to a news magazine in 1973. Fellow POW Orson Swindle, a longtime friend and supporter of McCain's, refuted the charge in a statement, saying "nothing could be further from the truth. I know because I was there."

And phone calls on behalf of Mike Huckabee have begun going out in the state, push-polls containing disparaging information and charges against Huckabee's rivals, including Fred Thompson, according to the Associated Press. One country chairman of Thompson's campaign reported receiving a call containing attacks on Thompson's position on abortion and his past job as a lobbyist.

The group behind the calls is promising to make 1 million more of them in advance of the primary despite the Huckabee campaign's calls for them to stop. "We know nothing about that and don't condone it. Anyone who is doing that in an effort to help us needs to stop. This does not reflect the positive spirit of the campaign," a spokesperson told the AP.

It's going to be a long three days in the Palmetto State.

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The polls aren't closed in Michigan yet but John McCain is out with a new ad in South Carolina targeted at the large number of veterans and active-duty military and their families. The ad, titled "service," features McCain speaking directly to the camera in front of an American flag. You can view the ad here. Text:

"I've served our country all my adult life. I've never lived a day in good times or bad I wasn't grateful for the privilege. Now I ask to serve as your president. As thousands of South Carolinians risk their lives to defend us, our purpose can't be ours alone. America is our cause, her greatness our hope, her strength our protection, her goodness the hope of mankind. That's why I run for president, and ask for your support."