All Blog Posts from Horserace

CBS News’ Election and Survey Unit’s survey analyst Jennifer De Pinto goes inside the exit polls once again to examine the impact of the Hispanic vote on the 2008 presidential election:

Hispanics were a key factor in President-elect Barack Obama’s victory. He captured the support of 67 percent of this group, an increase of 14 points over John Kerry’s 53 percent in 2004. Republican nominee John McCain took just 31 percent, down from the 44 percent President Bush received in 2004.

Yet, these voters were not solidly behind Obama during the Democratic primaries. In fact, Hillary Clinton won the support of about six in 10 Hispanics in those contests and they were essential to her victories in the California and Texas primaries.

As the primaries ended and the general election campaign got underway, Hispanics warmed to Obama. A troubled economy and dissatisfaction with the current President and his party drove more Hispanics to the Democratic column this time around.

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CBS News’ Election and Survey Unit’s survey analyst Jennifer De Pinto goes inside the exit polls once again to examine the impact of the Hispanic vote on the 2008 presidential election:

Hispanics were a key factor in President-elect Barack Obama’s victory. He captured the support of 67 percent of this group, an increase of 14 points over John Kerry’s 53 percent in 2004. Republican nominee John McCain took just 31 percent, down from the 44 percent President Bush received in 2004.

Yet, these voters were not solidly behind Obama during the Democratic primaries. In fact, Hillary Clinton won the support of about six in 10 Hispanics in those contests and they were essential to her victories in the California and Texas primaries.

As the primaries ended and the general election campaign got underway, Hispanics warmed to Obama. A troubled economy and dissatisfaction with the current President and his party drove more Hispanics to the Democratic column this time around.

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CBS News’ Election and Survey Unit’s survey analyst extraordinaire Jennifer De Pinto goes inside the exit polls from last week’s election and finds some interesting nuggets about those Hillary Clinton supporters who voted for John McCain:

As voters left the polls on Election Day, many were asked how they would have voted if the election match-up were between Hillary Clinton and John McCain rather than Barack Obama and McCain. 52 percent said they would have backed the former Democratic candidate; 41 percent would have voted for McCain, wider than Obama’s 7-point margin over McCain.

Interestingly, 16 percent of McCain voters said they would have voted for Clinton, the Democrat, if she had been her party’s nominee.

So who were these potential cross-over voters?

They were older: 61% of them were age 45 and above.

53% were women; while 47% were men.

43% of these voters who supported McCain but would have backed Clinton if she were in the race described themselves as Independents. 31% were Republicans; while 26% were Democrats.

84% of them were white – higher than the electorate at large. 12% were Hispanic, compared to 9% of the total electorate.

21% of McCain voters who would have supported Clinton said race was factor in their vote. 19% of McCain voters overall said race was factor in their vote.

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Whether they voted for him or not, Americans are optimistic about the next four years with Barack Obama as president, according to a new CBS News poll. Seventy-one percent of all Americans say they are optimistic about the next four years, including nearly half (48 percent) of all those who voted for John McCain. Just 17 percent of all Americans are pessimistic, including 40 percent of McCain voters.

Eighty-three percent of African-Americans are optimistic and 88 percent of Americans under the age of 30 are as well. While 88 percent of Democrats say they are optimistic, so do 51 percent of Republicans.

During the campaign, Americans expressed record levels of dismay about the state of the country and the economy, and dissatisfaction with the current Administration. However, the level of optimism Americans now express about the future matches the level they expressed before many other recent presidents took office.

About seven in 10 were also optimistic about Presidents Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush, and Bill Clinton -- before their first terms began. Six in 10 were optimistic in December 2000 about George W. Bush, even after that election’s 35-day post-election struggle.

More from the poll will be released tonight at 6:30pm ET on the CBS Evening News and in full on CBSNews.com.

This poll was conducted among a nationwide random sample of 1,220 adults interviewed by telephone November 7-10, 2008. Respondents had been first interviewed October 30-November 3, 2008. Phone numbers were dialed from RDD samples of both standard land-lines and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the total sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher.

With two days left until the presidential election, Barack Obama continues to lead John McCain by 13 points among likely voters, 54 percent to 41 percent, a new CBS News poll finds. The margin in the new poll, released Sunday, is identical to that in a CBS News poll released Saturday.

As the number of undecided voters has dwindled, so has the number that says their minds can still change. More than nine in 10 of each candidate’s voters now say they have made up their minds about who to vote for and are not likely to change. Just seven percent of Obama voters and 8 percent of McCain voters say they still might change their minds.

With two days to go, only 8 percent of likely voters are uncommitted – either they have not yet chosen a candidate, or their minds could still change. Nearly all of these uncommitted voters say they plan to vote.

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As part of a poll to be released in full later today, CBS News and the New York Times asked voters who have seen television ads for both Barack Obama and John McCain about the tone of those ads.

Their responses suggest there is a gulf in voter perception of the candidates' efforts, with Obama widely seen as running the more positive advertising campaign.

Half of those surveyed say Obama's ads are primarily focused on what the candidate stands for, while thirty percent say they have been mostly concerned with attacking his Republican rival. Fifteen percent say both.

The perception is far more negative for McCain: Just 21 percent say the Arizona senator's ads are primarily focused on what he stands for, while the majority – 64 percent – say the ads have been largely concerned with attacking Obama. Twelve percent cite both.

We'll be making further results from the poll available at 6:30 this evening, so check back with CBSNews.com and watch the Evening News for a full report.

A 13-point national lead for Barack Obama could translate into an Electoral College landslide, according to the latest models from CBS News and YouGov/Polimetrix.

The most recent CBS News/New York Times poll had Obama leading among likely voters nationally 52 percent to 39 percent, and the previous CBS News poll showed a similar lead. Guided by the results of the two polls, YouGov/Polimetrix then modeled 50 state electorates for CBS News, incorporating information from 26,671 online interviews with registered voters.

YouGov/Polimetrix applied the CBS News/New York Times double digit-lead to their 50-state national results weighted to each state’s relative vote size, demographics, and matched to the CBS News/New York Times Poll in national party identification and ideology.

The technique allows the CBS News elections and survey unit and YouGov/Polimetrix to to estimate the probability that each candidate would carry any given state -- as of now -- in a national race. In late September, the national poll’s 5-point lead for the Democrats translated in the CBS News/YouGov model into a most likely outcome of 313 Electoral Votes for Obama and 225 Electoral Votes for McCain,. In the current modeling, the most likely outcome produced by a double-digit Obama lead could be an Electoral College landslide, Obama 390 Electoral Votes, McCain 148.

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From the CBS News election and survey unit: While John McCain has argued lately that his election would help serve as a check on a Democratic-controlled Congress, registered voters are divided on the subject, a deeper look at the most recent CBS News/New York Times poll reveals. Forty-one percent of voters say it is better to have the president and congress represented by different parties but 36 percent say it’s better if the same party is in control of both.

It may have more to do with partisan advantage than principle, however. Overall, Democrats today (45 percent) support the idea of having the two branches controlled by the same party, while more Republicans (48 percent) oppose the idea.

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The latest CBS News/New York Times poll will be released at 6:30pm ET today but a sneak peak at it shows that an increasing number of voters see John McCain as running a negative campaign while more see Obama as explaining what he would do as president.

Sixty four percent of registered voters said McCain is spending more time attacking his opponent, up from 61 percent who said that just over a week ago and from 53 percent in late September. Just 27 percent said he is spending more time explaining what he would do, compared to 69 percent who said that about Obama. Just 22 percent said they thought Obama was spending more time attacking McCain, down from 35 percent who said so in late September.

McCain has denied that he has attacked his candidate more often but in an interview with CBS News’ Harry Smith, Obama said McCain’s tone has been much more negative. “I don't think there's any equivalence between what we've been doing and what John McCain's been doing,” Obama said. “Witness some of the comments that have been made just over the last several months, his last several weeks, 'Socialistic.' You know, 'Pals around with terrorists.' I mean, just - the kinds of stuff that - that I can't imagine saying about an opponent of mine.”

Tune into the CBS Evening News tonight and come back to CBSNews.com at 6:30 ET for the full results of the poll.

This poll was conducted among a random sample of 1152 adults nationwide, including 1046 registered voters, interviewed by telephone October 19-22, 2008. Phone numbers were dialed from RDD samples of both standard land-lines and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample and the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher.

A new poll conducted by Montana State University-Billings shows Barack Obama leading John McCain in the state by a 44 percent to 40 percent margin. Both candidates did well among their party’s base but Obama had an edge among independents, the poll found. Respondents widely said they thought McCain had run a more negative campaign while Obama held an edge on economic issues, the AP notes. The poll found that 70 percent of those polled though it was either somewhat or very likely that the U.S. will experience an economic depression.