All Blog Posts from Horserace

After a flood of national polls this week which have established that John McCain came out of the convention crunch at the very least even with Barack Obama for the first time, if not slightly ahead. It’s September, less than eight weeks from Election Day and polls are beginning to take on more importance as a gauge of the race.

Of course those national polls are unimportant compared to those being conducted state-by-state where the election will be decided. There’s a new wave of those out today from two news organizations that paint a similar picture of a very tight race.

McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin and the rallying of the traditional conservative base appears to have given the senator a boost in some of those red states which the Obama campaign has targeted. In Virginia, a new CNN/Time magazine poll has McCain up 50 percent to 46 percent, while another poll by the same shows him leading in Missouri by a similar 50 percent to 45 percent margin. In Florida, a new Quinnipiac poll has McCain up even more, 50 percent to 43 percent.

But there are troubling signs for McCain in the state of Ohio, which played such a pivotal role in re-electing President Bush in 2004. A Quinnipiac poll there has Obama leading 49 percent to 44 percent. Quinnipiac also has Obama up by a slim 48 percent to 45 percent margin in Pennsylvania while CNN/Time has him leading McCain in New Hampshire 51 percent to 45 percent and up 49 percent to 45 percent in Michigan.

For all the excitement generated by the Palin pick among Republicans, these polls numbers should be have a cooling effect. It’s encouraging for McCain that in two big “blue” states – Pennsylvania and Michigan – remain highly competitive. Pulling either of them into the GOP column would highly complicate Obama’s path to the White House. But losing Ohio, so vital to GOP hopes in the past, would make winning one of those other large states essential.

The Buckeye State is where Hillary Clinton scored a big but too-late victory in the primary season and where questions about Obama’s ability to attract those white, blue-collar, Reagan Democrats started really being raised. His lead in Ohio at this point in the campaign is perhaps the most significant of all these polling results.

Of course there will be plenty more polls out in the coming days and weeks, each one given more import than the last. In the meantime, check out our Ways To Win interactive map and plot your own path to the presidency for both candidates.

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(DENVER) Remember when you were in junior high school and all of the cool kids sat at the back of the school bus? Political conventions work the same way, only in reverse, with a few privileged delegations getting the best seats at the Pepsi Center.

Yesterday, I took a stroll across the convention floor where workers were putting up the final placards to mark the seating locations for the 56 delegations (50 states, American Samoa, The District of Columbia, Guam, Puerto Rico, The Virgin Islands, and Democrats abroad).

Front and center is the delegation from Barack Obama’s home state of Illinois, flanked by Delaware (Joe Biden’s home state) and Colorado (the host state). The delegates from Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean’s home state of Vermont also get front-row seats.

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Hillary Clinton will campaign for her former Democratic rival Barack Obama in South Florida on Thursday, the Obama campaign announced. The New York senator will make public appearances in Palm Beach and Broward Counties.

In Palm Beach, Clinton "will host a rally focused on why Barack Obama is the only choice for voters who care about issues important to women in this election," according to the Obama campaign's press release.

Clinton will be the headline speaker next Tuesday night at the Democratic convention in Denver. The date of her speech falls on the certification of the 88th anniversary of the 19th Amendment to the Constitution, which mandated women's suffrage.

UPDATED Barack Obama has sent a letter to the co-chairs of the Democratic National Convention’s Credentials Committee urging them to pass a resolution allowing the Democratic delegations from Florida and Michigan to be fully represented at the Democratic National Convention.

The states were stripped of their delegates as punishment for moving their primaries before February 5th in violation of Democratic National Committee rules. They were awarded half-votes at a May meeting.

The Obama and Hillary Clinton campaigns sparred during the primaries over how the delegates from the two states would be allocated, with the debate centering on whether the allocation would be based on the popular vote or some other measure. Clinton won both states, though Obama was not on the ballot in Michigan, complicating efforts to award delegates.

As Clinton looked to keep her campaign alive towards the end of the primary process, she called on the DNC to fully seat the delegations from the two states. The Obama campaign, which would have been hurt in its battle for the nomination had the delegations been fully seated at that point, did not join Clinton's call.

A Democratic source told CBS News today that Obama walked a "fine line" during the primary by deferring to the DNC while Clinton was using the question of full representation issue as a rallying point.

"...I believe Party unity calls for the delegates from Florida and Michigan to be able to participate fully alongside the delegates from the other states and territories," Obama wrote in the letter. "Accordingly, I ask that the Credentials Committee, when it meets on August 24 to approve the delegates for the National Convention, pass a resolution that would entitle each delegate from Florida and Michigan to cast a full vote."

He continued:

"As a candidate for the nomination, I supported the DNC’s efforts to establish and enforce a schedule for primaries and caucuses that would broaden the opportunity for Democrats from all regions of the country and all backgrounds and walks of life to have a meaningful voice....As we prepare to come together in Denver, however, we must be – and will be – united in our determination to change the course of our nation. To that end, Democrats in Florida and Michigan must know that they are full partners and colleagues in our historic mission to reshape Washington and lead our country in a new direction."

The DNC released a statement in response to the letter.

"Today we received a letter from Senator Obama requesting that the Convention's Credentials Committee grant each delegate from Florida and Michigan a full vote. We deeply appreciate and value Senator Obama's perspective on this important issue. This matter will be the top priority for the Credentials Committee when we meet on August 24th. As always our goal is to ensure a fair process and a unified Democratic Party so that we can win in November."

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The latest Quinnipiac Swing State poll shows Barack Obama with strong support in three of the most critical battleground states.

According to the poll, Obama has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania (52 percent to 40 percent), a solid edge in Ohio (48 percent to 42 percent) and is even ahead in Florida (47 percent to 43 percent), a state where many observers have assumed McCain would have the advantage.

It's still too early to put much credence in general election polls, but the Quinnipiac Poll is notable for the fact that just last week, Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe made the case at a private fundraiser that the presumptive Democratic nominee does not even need to win the decisive battlegrounds in 2000 and 2004—Florida and Ohio—in order to reach the magic number of 270 electoral votes.

Just ahead of tomorrow's meeting of the Democratic National Committee's rules committee to decide how to count the delegates from Florida and Michigan – states that were punished by the DNC for moving their primaries forward on the calendar – a group headed by Hillary Clinton donors has begin running an ad calling for the full delegations from both states to be seated.

The New York Times reports that the group, Count The Votes Cast, formed a political action committee this week. Their 30-second spot, running in Washington, D.C. and on CNN, shows five founding members of the group talking straight into the camera.

“We are Democrats," they say in the spot. "We care about what happens in November. We urge the Democratic National Committee to seat all of the delegates from Florida and Michigan. There’s no question about the validity of votes, it’s whether they’ll count. After 2000, how can any Democrat support votes not being counted? Count all the votes. Not to do so will fracture the party and bring disaster in November.”

Watch it:

The two remaining Democratic presidential contenders are heading to the Sunshine State.

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have largely avoided Florida during their fight for the Democratic presidential nomination, having signed a pledge nine months ago not to campaign in the state before its late January primary. They did so because Florida held its primary earlier than Democratic National Committee rules permitted, a move that prompted the DNC to strip the state of its delegates to the party's convention.

Now, however, both are heading to the state tomorrow, according to the Associated Press. John McCain is campaigning there today.

Florida is likely to be a battleground state in November, and Republicans have looked to leverage any bitterness that has arisen from the DNC's punitive action against the state and the candidates' long absences. Obama has not campaigned there since last August.

"I still cannot believe that any political party would create a barrier between the candidate and the voters," Republican Party of Florida Chairman Jim Greer told the AP. "It's a slap in the face to democracy. I'm just glad he finally found out where Florida is."

Clinton easily won the Florida primary, and she has pushed the DNC to seat the state's delegates. The DNC's Rules and Bylaws committee will meet on May 31st to consider whether and how to seat delegates from both Florida and Michigan.

In an open letter to her Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton asks Barack Obama to help her "arrive at a solution that honors the votes of the millions of people who went to the polls in Florida and Michigan."

After Tuesday's results in North Carolina and Indiana have led many pundits to declare the Democratic race all but over, the Clinton campaign has revved up its effort to get counted the disqualified results of the Michigan and Florida primaries.

Clinton writes that finding a resolution to the Michigan and Florida issue "could be the difference between winning and losing in November" and that "our commitment to the voters of these states must be clearly stated and your support for a fair and quick resolution must be clearly demonstrated."

Read the full letter below.

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Former President Jimmy Carter isn't on board with Hillary Clinton's argument that the disputed delegates from Florida and Michigan must be seated.

Carter told Jay Leno that the states "disqualified themselves" by moving their primary dates forward in violation of party rules, the Associated Press reports. He also said that if superdelegates were to give the nomination to the candidate who trails in the popular vote and delegate count – presumably Clinton – it "would be an almost unacceptable thing."

"It would be a catastrophe for the party," Carter said.

As we noted in a story yesterday, Clinton has a nearly impossible path to her party's nomination, barring some event that convinces a large majority of superdelegates that Obama should not be the Democratic nominee.

Carter himself is among the undecided superdelegates, though he has said this: "My children and their spouses are pro-Obama. My grandchildren are also pro-Obama. As a superdelegate, I would not disclose who I am rooting for, but I leave you to make that guess."

The great Florida/Michigan delegate debate isn't over yet.

The latest: Two Florida state senators, Jeremy Ring and Steve Geller, are pushing a plan to seat half the state's delegates based on the state's primary, which took place on Jan 29th. (Because Florida held its primary earlier than permitted, the Democratic National Committee stripped the state of all its delegates.)

As the Sun-Sentinel reports, the pair proposed at a news conference yesterday that half of Florida's 188 pledged delegates be seated based on the results of the state's primary. The other half could be seated based on the national vote or on another basis. And the state's 22 superdelegates would be counted.

"This approach would give Hillary Clinton an edge of 19 pledged delegates, thanks to her 17 percentage-point victory in Florida," notes the newspaper. "She'd likely net an additional advantage from the state's superdelegates."

As CBS News Chief Political Correspondent Marc Ambinder notes on his Atlantic blog, the plan needs both campaigns to sign on as well as approval from the DNC's credentials committee, "a process that would not really begin until July."