Pondering The Dream Ticket
With Barack Obama on the verge of becoming the presumptive nominee and Hillary Clinton’s flirtations with being “open” to joining the ticket, CBS News’ chief political consultant Marc Ambinder looks at the early dynamics around a possible “dream ticket”:
So, will she be on the ticket? To answer that question, we have to figure out the right question to ask.
(1) Does Clinton want to be vice president?
It's clear that she is open to the possibility; it's probable that she hasn't had the time to contemplate the question with attention to all of the ramifications -- what it would mean for her personal ambition, what she would do, what Bill would do?
(2) Would Clinton accept the vice presidency if it were offered?
Clearly, say her aides and advisers. She wants to do what's necessary to unite the Democratic Party, and the consequences of refusing an invitation would be pretty terrible.
(3) Would Obama consider her, seriously?
At this point, no. The thinking in the Obama campaign is that the party will, over the next few weeks, coalesce around Obama; that the fervor to put her on the ticket will diminish; that right now, the active phase of speculation is driving most of the unity talk, and if Obama, by mid-summer, has a comfortable lead in the polls, the demands will die down, especially if he treats her with respect.
(4) So how does he treat with respect?
He vets her, or he indicates that he will vet her, and he vets at least one of her supporters -- perhaps Gov. Strickland of Ohio; he promises her a prime-time speaking slot; he offers to let her shepherd his health care plan through Congress; he promises her regular input in his decisions.
(5) There will be lots of pressure on Obama to change his mind, though.
Unquestionably. And since we're in the moment, a lot of it is to be expected. You can be sure that Obama will do nothing rash, and that whatever he decides, he's going to take lots of time. If the pressure on him does not abate and if the support of a good chunk of the 17 million Democrats who voted for Hillary Clinton does not migrate to him by the middle of July, then Obama might find himself in a quandary.
(6) So basically, the answer to the original question is: if Obama can coalesce the Democratic Party before he needs to pick a vice president, there's almost no chance that he will pick Hillary Clinton.
So, will she be on the ticket? To answer that question, we have to figure out the right question to ask.
(1) Does Clinton want to be vice president?
It's clear that she is open to the possibility; it's probable that she hasn't had the time to contemplate the question with attention to all of the ramifications -- what it would mean for her personal ambition, what she would do, what Bill would do?
(2) Would Clinton accept the vice presidency if it were offered?
Clearly, say her aides and advisers. She wants to do what's necessary to unite the Democratic Party, and the consequences of refusing an invitation would be pretty terrible.
(3) Would Obama consider her, seriously?
At this point, no. The thinking in the Obama campaign is that the party will, over the next few weeks, coalesce around Obama; that the fervor to put her on the ticket will diminish; that right now, the active phase of speculation is driving most of the unity talk, and if Obama, by mid-summer, has a comfortable lead in the polls, the demands will die down, especially if he treats her with respect.
(4) So how does he treat with respect?
He vets her, or he indicates that he will vet her, and he vets at least one of her supporters -- perhaps Gov. Strickland of Ohio; he promises her a prime-time speaking slot; he offers to let her shepherd his health care plan through Congress; he promises her regular input in his decisions.
(5) There will be lots of pressure on Obama to change his mind, though.
Unquestionably. And since we're in the moment, a lot of it is to be expected. You can be sure that Obama will do nothing rash, and that whatever he decides, he's going to take lots of time. If the pressure on him does not abate and if the support of a good chunk of the 17 million Democrats who voted for Hillary Clinton does not migrate to him by the middle of July, then Obama might find himself in a quandary.
(6) So basically, the answer to the original question is: if Obama can coalesce the Democratic Party before he needs to pick a vice president, there's almost no chance that he will pick Hillary Clinton.
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