All Blog Posts from Horserace

To the victors go the spoils (or in this case an overflowing in-box that requires immediate attention). To the conquered goes the job of picking up the pieces. And for the Republican Party, there are a whole lot of slivers left from their shattered majority.

The splits within the party had grown so large by the end of the presidential campaign that it was hardly newsworthy anymore to report on the numbers of moderate Republicans who were openly endorsing the Democratic candidate. Conservatives, who more or less completed their takeover of the GOP during the 1990s found their numbers dwindling on Election Day and face an uncertain future, to put it lightly.

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The Family Research Council is out with a new spot running in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Michigan and the Washington DC market that goes after Barack Obama for "dangerous values" when it comes to abortion. The conservative group is spending $100,000 to air the spot, according to David Brody.

"What would you do as president?" a female announcer asks in the spot. "Fix the economy? End the war? Restore our schools?"

Then cut to video of Obama, who says, "The first thing I'd do as president is sign the Freedom Of Choice Act."

Back to the announcer: "Really. Obama's top priority as president will be a law to reinstate partial birth abortion? Eliminate parental notification? And force taxpayers to fund abortions?"

She concludes: "Barack Obama: Dangerous values."



The League Of Conservation Voters, meanwhile, is hitting John McCain for wanting "to take" what it characterizes as Colorado's scare water resources. The spot, designed to influence a tight race in the state, hits the Republican nominee for wanting to renegotiate the Colorado River compact "so Arizona and California can grab our water."

Time Magazine is reporting that "about 100 conservative Christian leaders from around the country agreed to unite behind the candidacy of John McCain" at a meeting yesterday in Denver.

The decision appears to be a pragmatic one: Though many conservatives were resistant to McCain's candidacy during the Republican primary, they believe he is closer to their viewpoint on many issues than presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama.

"Collectively we feel that he will support and advance those moral values that we hold much greater than Obama, who in our view will decimate moral values," Mat Staver, chairman of legal advocacy group Liberty Counsel, told Time.

As the magazine notes, McCain has recently declared positions likely to appeal to conservative Christians, including his support for a gay marriage ban in California and his backing of a Bush administration proposal to allow faith-based organizations that accept federal funding to make employment decisions based on religion.

Earlier today we mentioned Mitt Romney's new Web-only ad, "Very Close," in which the Romney campaign links John McCain to Democrat Hillary Clinton:



McCain also has a new ad out, though he's not linking Romney to a Democrat – he's questioning his ties to a Republican. In the TV spot "Trust," the McCain campaign questions Romney's closeness to former president Ronald Reagan, whom many of the GOP candidates, including Romney, have suggested they would emulate.

We’ve been following the split amongst conservatives who support GOP frontrunner John McCain – either wholeheartedly or grudgingly – and those who continue to fight against the prospect of a McCain nomination.

The list of those in the latter camp is not short: It includes Rick Santorum, Robert F. Bennett, Rick Santorum, David Keene, Tom Delay, Rush Limbaugh, Hugh Hewitt, Laura Ingraham, Ann Coulter, Sean Hannity, George Voinovich, Paul Weyrich, and Thad Cochran, who told the Washington Post that “the thought of [McCain] being president sends a cold chill down my spine."

Yesterday, former GOP presidential nominee Bob Dole sent a letter to Limbaugh, one of McCain’s harshest critics, asking him to offer his “enthusiastic support” to “[w]hoever wins the Republican nomination.”

Dole admitted that he disagrees with McCain’s votes against the Bush tax cuts and on campaign finance reform, but writes that he “cannot recall a single instance when he did not support the Party on critical votes.”

He cites McCain’s pro-life record, calls him a “strong advocate for strict constructionist judges,” writes that he supported voluntary school prayer, and notes that McCain backed a balanced budget amendment, opposed pork barrel spending, and defends second amendment rights.

“McCain is a friend and I proudly wore his P.O.W. bracelet bearing his name while he was still a guest at the ‘Hanoi Hilton,’" Dole writes. “I believe our major candidates are mainstream conservatives and that our nominee will address our concerns by keeping taxes low, reducing corporate taxes, protecting and assisting the vulnerable, strengthening our traditional values, and above all, keeping America strong militarily, whatever the cost.”

Asked about Dole’s letter this morning, rival Mitt Romney told Fox News that Dole is “probably the last person I would have wanted to have write a letter for me.” That prompted McCain, appearing on MSNBC, to demand that Romney apologize to Dole.

“He’s a great American,” McCain said. “And for Governor Romney, who has never had any military experience, to disparage the service and courage of an American hero, I think is disgraceful.”

Romney, meanwhile, yesterday released a Web ad pushing his theme that McCain is not a conservative. In the spot, “Very Close,” an announcer asks, “Is John McCain really the heart and soul of the Republican Party?”

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Horserace has been keeping a close eye on the relationship between John McCain and the two vocal groups on the right largely opposed to his candidacy – establishment conservatives and right-wing talk show hosts. Today brings mixed news for McCain on that front.

The New York Times reports that some of McCain's conservative critics – among them Christian conservative Tony Perkins, the Southern Baptist Convention's Richard Land, and antitax crusader Grover Norquist -- are warming to the senator.

“When I hear Rush Limbaugh say that a McCain nomination would destroy the Republican Party,” the Times quotes Land saying, “what I want to say to Rush is, ‘You need to get out of the studio more and talk to real people.’”

McCain consistently casts himself as a conservative, but his past positions on campaign finance reform, the Bush tax cuts, immigration, and other issues have angered some on the right. He is trying to repair the rift, having committed to speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference, an important gathering for movement conservatives that he skipped last year, next week.

But there are still plenty of conservatives, particularly in the talk show-host ranks, who have not exactly embraced a McCain candidacy. Radio host Laura Ingraham and former Sen. Rick Santorum today backed Mitt Romney, and on Fox News yesterday, controversial right-wing pundit Ann Coulter vowed that if John McCain and Hillary Clinton are the two parties' presidential nominees, she'll be campaigning for the Democrat.

"If he's our candidate, then Hillary's going to be our girl, Sean, 'cause she's more conservative than he is," Coulter told Fox News host Sean Hannity. "I think she would be stronger on the war on terrorism."

"I would trust any Republican but John McCain more than Hillary Clinton," she added. "If it's John McCain, Hillary is absolutely more conservative."

Video here.

CBS News' Scott Conroy reports:

The morning papers carried two pieces of news that indicate Mitt Romney, whose Mormon faith has been an issue in this campaign, is making progress in winning over evangelical Christians.

The New York Times reports that Mark DeMoss, a prominent evangelical publicist, wrote a five-page letter to 150 conservative Christian leaders urging them to rally around Romney’s candidacy.

“After spending months researching his life and his record, and hours with him (and his wife and staff) in his home, his office and on the road, I am convinced his values practically mirror my own,” DeMoss wrote.

Meanwhile, The Washington Times reports that two other big-name evangelicals heaped praise upon Romney yesterday. Family Research Council President Tony Perkins and American Values President Gary Bauer praised Romney while criticizing Mike Huckabee — the GOP candidate and Baptist minister whose theology might be most in line with theirs.

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Conservative Christian leaders have started dropping hints that they may opt for a third-party candidate if Rudy Giuliani -- whose support for abortion rights is at odds with the beliefs of most evangelical voters -- wins the Republican nomination. But if that does happen, one person has already declared himself out of the running: former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who is seeking the GOP nod.

In an interview with washingtonpost.com, Huckabee, who remains in single digits in national polls despite his second-place finish in the influential Ames, Iowa straw poll in August, said such a third-party bid would only help Hillary Clinton, who he assumes will be the Democratic nominee. "I don't see that being a good strategy for those who really care about pushing a pro-family, pro-life agenda," Huckabee said, before engaging in some self-promotion. "If they want to do that, the smart thing to do is coalesce their support around Mike Hucakbee. If they do that, I'll become the nominee, I'll win the White House."

Huckabee would be a logical choice for such a candidacy, though: Along with having served as a governor, he's a Baptist minister and has a conservative record on social issues that stretches back to his entry into politics. But it's also hard to deny Huckabee's argument -- if the fringe candidacy of Ralph Nader was enough to keep Democrats out of the White House in 2000, it's easy to see how a run by Huckabee would result in a significantly larger schism on the right that would provide an easy win for Clinton, or just about any other Democrat.